Should I Buy HOG? HOG 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

20.490

1 Day change

1.99%

52 Week Range

31.250

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: price is pressing near-term resistance (~20.76) while the broader trend remains bearish (SMA200 > SMA20 > SMA5), creating unfavorable risk/reward.
Options are sending mixed sentiment (put-heavy open interest but call-heavy volume) with very high IV ahead of earnings (Feb 10 pre-market), which increases event-driven uncertainty for a “buy now” decision.
With no supportive proprietary signals today and no fresh news catalyst, the cleaner setup is to wait for either a breakout above resistance or a pullback toward support—since waiting isn’t preferred in this scenario, the action is Hold / do not buy now.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock today.

Technical Analysis

Trend/MAs: Bearish structure (SMA200 > SMA20 > SMA5) suggests the larger trend is still down/weak despite the recent bounce.
Momentum: MACD histogram +0.0596 and expanding (>0) = improving momentum in the very near term.
RSI: RSI(6) 62.55 = neutral-to-slightly-bullish, not overbought, but not a deep-value entry either.
Key levels: Pivot 20.12; Resistance R1 20.76 (price closed ~20.67, very close to resistance); next resistance R2 21.16. Supports S1 19.48, S2 19.09.
Pattern-based odds: Similar candlestick patterns imply ~40% chance of +3.85% next day, +12.51% next week, +1.85% next month—helpful, but not strong enough to override the bearish MA stack.
Market context: S&P 500 -0.52% on the day; HOG outperformed, but that alone doesn’t confirm a trend reversal.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment mix: Open Interest Put/Call 1.32 = more puts outstanding (more hedging / cautious longer-dated positioning), while Volume Put/Call 0.28 = call volume dominated today (short-term speculative bullishness).
Volatility: 30D IV 59.16 vs HV 24.58; IV percentile 86.06 = options are expensive and pricing a large move.
Event setup: Earnings on 2026-02-10 pre-market likely contributes to elevated IV; direction is less clear, but expected move is higher.
Activity: Today’s option volume (2723) is below typical (today vs 30D avg ~61.68%), so the call-skew in volume may be less reliable as a conviction signal.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Recent price strength: +2.86% regular session and additional post-market +0.88% suggests near-term buying interest.
- Momentum improving: MACD histogram positive and expanding supports a near-term continuation attempt.
- Operational narrative (from prior coverage): CEO actions on inventory reduction and dealer health were viewed positively by at least one bullish analyst (DA Davidson).
- Earnings catalyst (Feb 10): could spark a breakout if results/guidance surprise positively.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

often caps rallies and increases risk of rejection near resistance.
into earnings raises the odds of a sharp move against a “buy now” entry.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $1.341B, +16.51% YoY (solid top-line growth).
Net income: $377.4M, +217.01% YoY (sharp improvement).
EPS: 3.10, +240.66% YoY (strong earnings growth).
Profitability quality: Gross margin 34.77%, down 8.57% YoY (margin compression is the main blemish and a key item to watch going into QDEC 2025 earnings).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: More cautious overall; multiple price targets were lowered and the mix is Hold/Neutral leaning with one Underweight.
Key updates:
- (2026-01-16) Morgan Stanley: Underweight, PT cut to $18 from $21 (bearish view).
- (2025-11-25) Loop Capital: Hold, PT $21 (neutral).
- (2025-11-13) UBS: Neutral, PT cut to $27 from $28 (slightly less bullish).
- (2025-11-10) DA Davidson: Buy, PT cut to $30 from $34 (bullish but trimming expectations).
Wall Street pros/cons snapshot:
- Pros: Some believe operational fixes (inventory/dealer focus) can improve fundamentals; at least one Buy-rated analyst still sees upside.
- Cons: Target cuts and an Underweight call suggest skepticism on demand/macro sensitivity and/or sustainability, reinforcing a cautious near-term stance.

4 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast HOG stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HOG is 32.67 USD with a low forecast of 32 USD and a high forecast of 34 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

3 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 20.090

Low

Averages

32.67

High

Current: 20.090

Low

Averages

32.67

High

Morgan Stanley

Underweight

downgrade

$21 -> $18

AI Analysis

2026-01-16

Reason

Morgan Stanley

Price Target

$21 -> $18

AI Analysis

2026-01-16

downgrade

Underweight

Reason

Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on Harley-Davidson to $18 from $21 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares. Gaming, lodging and leisure fundamentals were "muted" in 2025, with select areas of acceleration skewed to companies serving older, wealthier consumers, the analyst tells investors in a 2026 look ahead note on the group. For 2026, the firm expects "more of the same fundamentally," with the added wrinkle of rates boosting goods over services, the analyst added.

Loop Capital

Hold

initiated

$21

2025-11-25

Reason

Loop Capital

Price Target

$21

2025-11-25

initiated

Hold

Reason

Loop Capital initiated coverage of Harley-Davidson with a Hold rating and $21 price target.

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HOG Should I Buy

HOG Should I Buy

Should You Buy Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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