Should I Buy HNRG? HNRG 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Hallador Energy Co (HNRG) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

20.060

1 Day change

6.82%

52 Week Range

24.700

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Buy now: The stock is pulling back into a defined support zone (~17.17) after a sharp -4.15% day, while fundamentals/analyst stance remain strongly positive.
Impatient-entry friendly: With price near S1 support and RSI depressed, the risk/reward favors a near-term bounce attempt rather than waiting for a perfect setup.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram is -0.147 and negatively expanding, signaling bearish momentum is still in control short-term.
RSI: RSI(6) at 34.18 = weak/washed-out but not a confirmed reversal; it supports a bounce thesis near support, not a trend turn by itself.
Moving averages: Converging MAs suggest the stock is compressing after recent movement; often precedes a larger move once direction resolves.
Key levels: Support S1 17.166 (current price ~17.8 is close), then S2 16.152. Resistance at Pivot 18.806, then R1 20.447.
Pattern-based short-horizon stats: Similar-pattern read shows mild positive drift (next week +1.11%, next month +3.59%), supportive of a buy-the-dip attempt near support.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/Sentiment: Very low put/call ratios (OI 0.14, volume 0.09) indicate call-heavy, bullish sentiment.
Volatility: 30D IV 86.27 vs HV 52.12 and IV percentile 85.26 = options are priced expensively, reflecting elevated uncertainty/expectations.
Flow: Today volume 649 vs 30D avg (reported) 90.52%; open interest 40,702 with 105.91% vs avg—participation remains solid and skewed bullish.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Fundamental growth backdrop: Strong recent quarter growth (revenue, EPS, margins) supports continued re-rating potential.
- Analyst-cited demand theme: Power demand tailwinds tied to data centers/AI rollouts.
- Company-specific upside optionality: Analysts highlight PPA discussions and evaluation of adding 525MW capacity at Merom targeted for Q4 2028, a credible longer-dated growth catalyst.
- Options sentiment: Call-dominant positioning supports a bullish near-term sentiment backdrop.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Short-term technical pressure: MACD bearish and expanding suggests downside momentum hasn’t fully cooled.
- Recent price shock: -4.15% day indicates sellers are active; bounce is not yet confirmed.
- No near-term news catalyst: “No news in recent week” reduces the chance of an immediate event-driven reversal.
- No supportive flow signals: Hedge funds/insiders reported neutral, and no notable politician activity in the last 90 days.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3
Revenue: $146.846M, +39.65% YoY (strong top-line acceleration)
Net income: $23.884M, +1436.94% YoY (major profitability expansion)
EPS: $0.55, +1275.00% YoY (earnings power improvement)
Gross margin: 43.34%, +58.75% YoY (material margin uplift supporting higher valuation potential if sustained)

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent direction: improving / more bullish (both coverage items are upgrades in targets while reiterating bullish ratings).
2025-11-11 Northland: PT raised $23 → $29, rating Outperform; cites constructive PPA discussions and potential 525MW expansion at Merom.
2025-11-11 Alliance Global: PT raised $24 → $28, rating Buy; cites strong Q3 beat and multiple-expansion potential tied to AI/data center power demand.
Wall Street pro view (pros/cons):
- Pros: accelerating financials, demand tailwinds (AI/data centers), credible long-term capacity expansion narrative.
- Cons: near-term price action/technical momentum currently bearish, and timing of large-scale projects is longer-dated.

2 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast HNRG stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HNRG is 28.5 USD with a low forecast of 28 USD and a high forecast of 29 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

2 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 18.780

Low

Averages

28.5

High

Current: 18.780

Low

Averages

28.5

High

Northland

Jeff Grampp

Outperform

maintain

$23 -> $29

AI Analysis

2025-11-11

Reason

Northland

Jeff Grampp

Price Target

$23 -> $29

AI Analysis

2025-11-11

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Northland analyst Jeff Grampp raised the firm's price target on Hallador Energy to $29 from $23 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The company, which is continuing to have positive discussions with potential customers on its larger-scale PPA opportunity, seems to be having enough positive conversations that it is now evaluating adding 525 MW of new capacity to its Merom site, aiming to be online by Q4 2028, the analyst tells investors.

Alliance Global

Buy

maintain

$24 -> $28

2025-11-11

Reason

Alliance Global

Price Target

$24 -> $28

2025-11-11

maintain

Buy

Reason

Alliance Global raised the firm's price target on Hallador Energy to $28 from $24 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after the company reported "strong" Q3 results that beat both the Street and the firm's estimates. The firm believes Hallador is positioned for multiple expansion in coming quarters as it sees the company being well positioned to capitalize on continued growth in power demands driven by data center and AI rollouts, the analyst tells investors.

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HNRG Should I Buy

HNRG Should I Buy

Should You Buy Hallador Energy Co (HNRG) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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