Not a good buy right now: momentum is still bearish (negative and expanding MACD histogram) and price is sitting just above key support (S1 ~21.04), which increases breakdown risk.
Options positioning is bullish (very low put/call ratios), but that’s not enough to override weak price action + heavy hedge-fund selling.
If already holding, this is more of a hold/monitor support situation than a fresh chase; the setup improves only if price reclaims the pivot zone (~23.17) with better momentum.
Technical Analysis
Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram at -0.337 and negatively expanding → bearish momentum is strengthening.
RSI(6): 36.96 → weak/near-oversold but not a confirmed reversal signal.
Moving averages: converging → consolidation, but with bearish momentum bias.
Key levels:
Support: S1 21.041 (near current area), then S2 19.726.
Resistance: Pivot 23.168, then R1 25.296.
Near-term pattern stats (similar candlesticks): 70% chance of about -0.78% next day, +0.76% next week, +3.43% next month → mild upside skew over a month, but short-term pressure remains.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Put/call ratios are very low (OI PCR 0.33; Volume PCR 0.19) → options traders are positioned bullishly (call-heavy).
Volatility: IV(30d) 73.99 vs HV 69.27; IV percentile 94.42 → options are priced for elevated moves; premiums look expensive.
Activity: Today’s options volume 401 with ~9.34x vs 30-day average volume → notable spike in attention today.
Takeaway: Options market leans bullish, but high IV suggests the market is already paying up for that view.
Technical Summary
Sell
6
Buy
8
Positive Catalysts
Company expects H1 2026 results to meet expectations despite disruptions.
Reiterated full-year production guidance: 1.4M–1.5M ounces.
Analyst catalyst: Morgan Stanley upgraded to Equal Weight and raised price target (valuation-driven, event-risk more “in the market”).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Operational hiccups noted (mill motor failure; shipment delay at Hidden Valley) could pressure near-term execution sentiment.
Technicals are still bearish (negative MACD expanding) with price hovering near key support, raising downside risk if support breaks.
Flow/positioning risk: Hedge funds are selling, with selling amount up 1306.62% QoQ (strong negative signal from institutional behavior).
Financial Performance
Latest quarter financials: Not available (financial snapshot error: list index out of range), so growth and margin trends for the most recent reported quarter/season cannot be validated from the provided data.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
[2026-01-22] Morgan Stanley: Upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight; price target raised to ZAR 330 (from ZAR 265).
Rationale: valuation-driven after underperformance; key event risk around updated Eva capital guidance viewed as largely digested.
Wall Street-style cons: upgrade is not an outright bullish call (Equal Weight), and near-term operational issues plus weak technical momentum can cap upside until execution is demonstrated.
Wall Street analysts forecast HMY stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HMY is 20.5 USD with a low forecast of 20.5 USD and a high forecast of 20.5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast HMY stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HMY is 20.5 USD with a low forecast of 20.5 USD and a high forecast of 20.5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 19.400
Low
20.5
Averages
20.5
High
20.5
Current: 19.400
Low
20.5
Averages
20.5
High
20.5
Morgan Stanley
Underweight -> Equal Weight
upgrade
AI Analysis
2026-01-22
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
AI Analysis
2026-01-22
upgrade
Underweight -> Equal Weight
Reason
Morgan Stanley upgraded Harmony Gold to Equal Weight from Underweight with a price target of ZAR 330, up from ZAR 265. The firm cites valuation for the upgrade following the stock's underperformance over the past year. In addition, Harmony's key event risk of updated Eva capital guidance is now in the market, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
BMO Capital
Raj Ray
Market Perform
initiated
$16
2025-07-17
Reason
BMO Capital
Raj Ray
Price Target
$16
2025-07-17
initiated
Market Perform
Reason
BMO Capital analyst Raj Ray initiated coverage of Harmony Gold with a Market Perform rating and $16 price target. Harmony is a South African senior gold producer with increasing copper exposure and geographical diversification, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm likes the company's operational setup but believes the stock's valuation is now broadly in line with peer average.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for HMY
