Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: price is sitting near resistance (~4.22) with no proprietary buy signals and heavy insider selling.
Wall Street is constructive (multiple price target raises), but the risk/reward at 4.16 looks skewed toward a near-term stall/pullback unless it cleanly breaks above ~4.33.
Options positioning is extremely call-skewed (bullish sentiment), which can be supportive, but also leaves the stock vulnerable if momentum fades.
Trend/Momentum: RSI(6) ~61.5 (neutral-to-slightly bullish); MACD histogram slightly negative but contracting (bearish momentum is fading, not yet flipped bullish).
Moving averages: converging MAs suggest consolidation/indecision rather than a strong trend.
Key levels: Pivot 4.031; Resistance R1 4.216 and R2 4.331; Support S1 3.846 and S2 3.731.
Current price (~4.16) is just below R1 (4.216): upside is nearby but may be capped without a breakout above 4.33.
Pattern-based forward read: model implies modest upside probabilities (next day +1.2%, next month +1.84%), suggesting limited edge for an immediate chase.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning/Sentiment: Open interest put/call ratio 0.19 = very call-heavy (bullish sentiment, low put hedging).
Volume: very low absolute options volume today (27 contracts; puts 0) even though it’s ~123% of the 30D average—signal is not broad/strong participation.
Volatility: IV30 ~78% vs historical vol ~37% (options priced rich vs realized); IV has been falling vs 5D/10D averages (cooling volatility after prior elevation).
Takeaway: sentiment leans bullish, but the data looks more like thin call interest than strong conviction flow.
Technical Summary
Sell
4
Buy
12
Positive Catalysts
could be a catalyst if profitability inflects.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Insiders are selling aggressively (selling amount up ~2037% over the last month), a notable near-term bearish signal.
Profitability remains weak: 2025/Q3 net income was negative (-$0.806M) and worsened YoY; EPS -0.01 (down YoY).
No recent news flow in the last week to create a fresh, near-term catalyst.
Technical setup is consolidation near resistance (4.22–4.33); failure to break out can lead to a quick pullback toward 4.03/3.85.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $138.373M, +3.23% YoY (modest growth).
Gross margin: 40.75%, +11.77% YoY (clear improvement in margin quality).
Net income: -$0.806M, down -87.18% YoY (loss widened).
EPS: -0.01, down -80% YoY (still not showing durable earnings power yet).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Trend: Analysts turned more optimistic post-Q3 with broad price target raises.
Benchmark: PT raised to $4.50 (from $4), reiterated Buy; highlighted strong post-earnings reaction and improving trajectory.
DA Davidson: PT raised to $4.50 (from $3), maintained Neutral; sees improvement off trough but remains more cautious.
Telsey: PT raised to $5 (from $3.50), reiterated Outperform; expects success from strategic initiatives and brand/product strength.
Canaccord: PT raised to $7 (from $6), reiterated Buy; cited sales/EBITDA beat and high upside potential.
Wall Street pros/cons view: Pros = turnaround progressing + margin improvement; Cons = profitability still negative and insider selling is a near-term overhang.
Influential/politician trading: No recent congress trading data available (no signal from that channel).
Wall Street analysts forecast HLLY stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HLLY is 5.25 USD with a low forecast of 4.5 USD and a high forecast of 7 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast HLLY stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HLLY is 5.25 USD with a low forecast of 4.5 USD and a high forecast of 7 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 4.090
Low
4.5
Averages
5.25
High
7
Current: 4.090
Low
4.5
Averages
5.25
High
7
Benchmark
Buy
maintain
$4
AI Analysis
2025-11-10
Reason
Benchmark
Price Target
$4
AI Analysis
2025-11-10
maintain
Buy
Reason
Benchmark raised the firm's price target on Holley to $4.50 from $4 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after the company reported in-line Q3 results Friday. The post-earnings reaction, sending shares up about 30%, marks "the second straight quarter with a similar reaction after an intra-quarter pullback," the analyst noted.
DA Davidson
Neutral
maintain
$3
2025-11-10
Reason
DA Davidson
Price Target
$3
2025-11-10
maintain
Neutral
Reason
DA Davidson raised the firm's price target on Holley to $4.50 from $3 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Holley's auto enthusiast customer segment is a bit different than powersports, but the two probably aren't entirely unrelated and their business seems to be improving from the trough, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Holley is two years into a company specific turnaround story while operating under new management, which continues to bear fruit at an accelerating rate, the firm added.
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