Should I Buy HLIT? HLIT 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Harmonic Inc (HLIT) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

10.100

1 Day change

4.99%

52 Week Range

11.490

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: momentum is still weakening (MACD histogram negative and expanding) and price sits just above near-term support.
Best near-term setup is a wait-for-confirmation bounce: HLIT needs to reclaim the pivot (~10.07) to flip the short-term bias back upward.
Options are aggressively call-skewed (bullish positioning), but overall volume is small and implied volatility is extremely elevated into earnings—this is not a clean risk/reward spot to chase shares.
With earnings on 2026-02-19 (after hours) and the last reported quarter showing sharp YoY declines, the next catalyst is binary; without a proprietary buy signal, there’s no strong edge to buy immediately.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: Bearish-to-neutral. MACD histogram = -0.0487 (below zero) and negatively expanding → downside momentum is strengthening.
RSI: RSI(6) = 35.12 → weak/near-oversold but not a confirmed reversal signal.
Moving averages: Converging MAs → consolidation/indecision, typically needing a breakout to confirm direction.
Key levels: Support S1 ~9.661 (price 9.69 is sitting right on it); deeper support S2 ~9.41. Resistance at Pivot ~10.068, then R1 ~10.475.
Pattern-based odds (given): ~50% chance of modest gains: +0.67% next day, +2.87% next week, +7.07% next month—suggests upside possible, but not high-conviction versus current negative momentum.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning is strongly call-heavy by open interest (put/call OI = 0.05), typically a bullish sentiment read.
Put/call volume ratio = 0.56 (still call-leaning) but absolute volume is very small (total volume 14 contracts), so sentiment signal is not very reliable.
Implied volatility is extremely high: IV30 = 108.57 vs historical volatility 32.59; IV percentile 92.43 → options market is pricing a big move (likely earnings-driven).
Today’s option activity is elevated vs recent averages (today vs 30-day avg volume ~7.11x), but from a low base; open interest is modest (OI ~5845).

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Earnings catalyst ahead: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-19 after hours (Street EPS est. 0.04). A beat/raise could trigger a sharp repricing given high implied volatility.
- Gross margin improved YoY in the latest reported quarter (54.17%, +1.25% YoY), suggesting some resilience in profitability/price discipline.
- Call-heavy options positioning (very low put/call OI) can act as a sentiment tailwind if price starts to break above the pivot (~10.07).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Price action/indicators are currently unfavorable for immediate entry: MACD downside momentum is increasing and price is sitting on support (risk of support break to ~9.41).
- Latest reported quarter showed steep YoY deterioration in revenue, earnings, and net income—fundamental trend is weak into the next report.
- Extremely elevated implied volatility implies the market expects a big move; without a clear edge or proprietary buy signal, chasing shares ahead of earnings is unattractive.
- No supportive near-term news flow in the past week; absent catalysts, bearish momentum can persist.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3
Revenue: $142.38M, -27.27% YoY → meaningful contraction.
Net income: $2.69M, -87.60% YoY → profitability dropped sharply.
EPS: $0.02, -89.47% YoY → earnings power weakened substantially.
Gross margin: 54.17% (+1.25% YoY) → margin held up/improved despite weaker top-line, but not enough to offset the revenue decline.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

No analyst rating / price target change data was provided in the dataset, so the recent trend cannot be confirmed.
Wall Street-style pros (inference from provided data): margin improvement; potential earnings-driven upside move; bullish options skew.
Wall Street-style cons (inference from provided data): strong YoY declines in revenue/EPS; weakening technical momentum; elevated event volatility into earnings.
Influential/politician trading: No recent congress trading data available; hedge funds and insiders are reported as neutral with no significant recent trend.

2 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast HLIT stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HLIT is 13 USD with a low forecast of 11 USD and a high forecast of 15 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 9.620

Low

Averages

High

Current: 9.620

Low

Averages

High

Barclays

Tim Long

Equal Weight

maintain

$8 -> $11

AI Analysis

2025-11-05

Reason

Barclays

Tim Long

Price Target

$8 -> $11

AI Analysis

2025-11-05

maintain

Equal Weight

Reason

Barclays analyst Tim Long raised the firm's price target on Harmonic to $11 from $8 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The company's Q3 beat expectations with both video and broadband, and its Q4 guidance came mostly in line with estimates, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Rosenblatt

Buy

maintain

$11 -> $14

2025-10-01

Reason

Rosenblatt

Price Target

$11 -> $14

2025-10-01

maintain

Buy

Reason

Rosenblatt raised the firm's price target on Harmonic to $14 from $11 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. After having attended the cable industry's key broadband show, SCTE TechExpo, the firm came away confident that many of the headwinds that had weighed on Harmonics results in the first half of the year have lifted, the analyst tells investors.

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HLIT Should I Buy

HLIT Should I Buy

Should You Buy Harmonic Inc (HLIT) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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