Should I Buy HL? HL 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Hecla Mining Co (HL) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

22.770

1 Day change

6.85%

52 Week Range

34.170

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient trader: momentum is still bearish (MACD histogram deeply negative and worsening) and near-term pattern stats skew slightly downward over the next week.
Options positioning is clearly bullish (very low put/call ratios), but extremely high implied volatility suggests the market is already pricing in big moves—often meaning you’re paying up for exposure.
With earnings on 2026-02-12 (after hours), the next few sessions are likely to stay headline/expectation-driven; without a proprietary buy signal today, the risk/reward is not compelling for immediate entry.
Best stance today: Hold / avoid new buys until HL either reclaims the pivot (~~27.22) with improving momentum or pulls back closer to support (~~22.17) and stabilizes.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: Bearish near-term momentum.
- MACD histogram: -0.929 (below 0) and negatively expanding → downtrend pressure still building.
- RSI(6): 36.74 → weak/soft, not deeply oversold; suggests room for further downside before a high-conviction bounce.
Moving averages: Converging → consolidation/transition phase, but current momentum indicators favor downside continuation.
Key levels:
- Support: S1 22.17 (first major area to watch); below that S2 19.05.
- Resistance / inflection: Pivot 27.22; above that R1 32.27.
Probabilistic pattern read: similar pattern history implies ~-2.21% bias over the next week (slightly bearish), ~+0.96% over the next month (mild recovery potential).

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: Strongly bullish skew (puts relatively low vs calls) based on both open interest and daily volume.
Activity: Options volume 31,728 vs 30-day avg (today vs avg) 41.25 → activity is not unusually elevated; sentiment is bullish but not a volume “blow-off.”
Volatility pricing: IV is extremely elevated.
- 30D IV: 96.8; Historical vol: 91.63.
- IV Percentile: 95.62 (very high vs recent history) → market pricing large moves; directional buyers are paying a premium.
Positioning snapshot: Calls OI 494,617 vs Puts OI 154,546 (call-heavy).

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Silver tailwind: News flow highlights silver prices up sharply over the past year, which directly benefits HL’s revenue/earnings sensitivity.
- Recent operating/financial momentum: 2025/Q3 showed strong YoY acceleration (sales +67%).
- Analyst targets recently reset materially higher across multiple firms (reflecting higher metal price decks and improved balance sheet narrative).
- No notable negative signal from flows: hedge fund and insider trends are reported as neutral (no sustained selling pressure indicated).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Technical momentum is still bearish (MACD worsening), increasing odds of a retest toward ~22.17 support before a durable reversal.
- Valuation concern in Street commentary: at least one bearish analyst notes HL is trading at a premium to historical multiples.
- Production/profile concerns cited: visibility on long-term growth and mixed production outlook (e.g., ramp uncertainty at Keno Hill; mentions of flat silver and declining gold profile in analyst notes).
- Event risk: earnings on 2026-02-12 (after hours) with very high IV implies a meaningful gap/move is expected; timing risk is elevated for “buy now” entries.
- Influential trading: No recent congress trading data available; no politician-driven signal present in the provided dataset.

Financial Performance

Latest provided quarter: 2025/Q3.
- Revenue: $409.542M, +67.10% YoY (strong top-line acceleration).
- Net income: $100.588M, +6097.66% YoY (massive YoY swing, likely helped by metal prices/operating leverage).
- EPS: $0.15 (reported as flat YoY in the snapshot).
- Gross margin: 44.07%, +82.18% YoY (substantial profitability improvement).
Setup implication: Fundamentals improved sharply, but the stock has already rallied significantly per analyst/news commentary—so incremental upside now depends on continued execution + metal prices.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend (late Jan 2026): price targets were broadly raised (e.g., BMO to 28, Scotiabank to 25, Canaccord to 26.5, H.C. Wainwright to 36.5, Roth to 16), but ratings skew neutral-to-cautious.
Notable rating moves:
- Canaccord: Downgraded to Hold from Buy (even while raising PT) due to strong prior rally and limited implied return.
- BMO & Scotiabank: Market/Sector Perform (neutral stance) despite higher PTs.
- Roth: Sell maintained (valuation premium concern).
- H.C. Wainwright: Buy with a very bullish PT, citing strong silver demand and de-risked balance sheet.
Wall Street pros: higher metal price forecasts, improved balance sheet narrative, strong recent financial performance.
Wall Street cons: valuation/rally already priced in, questions around growth visibility/production trajectory, and mixed-to-neutral ratings dominance.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals:
- AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

HL Should I Buy