Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: short-term momentum is still bearish (MACD histogram negative and worsening) and there are no Intellectia buy signals to override that.
Price is sitting right on first support (~29.74). That can produce a bounce, but the setup is more “speculative dip-buy” than a high-confidence entry.
News flow is constructive (Spinnaker’s A- strength rating affirmed), but it’s not showing up as a clear upside technical break yet.
Net: avoid initiating a new position today; it becomes more attractive only if HIPO reclaims the pivot (~30.77) and holds above it.
Technical Analysis
Trend/momentum: Bearish near-term tone. MACD histogram (-0.0585) is below zero and negatively expanding → selling pressure is still building.
RSI: RSI(6) ~31.5 (near oversold). This supports the idea of a short-term bounce, but oversold alone is not a reliable “buy now” trigger when MACD is worsening.
Moving averages: Converging MAs → indecision/transition phase, not a confirmed uptrend.
Key levels: Pivot 30.77 is the line-in-the-sand. Current price ~29.77 is below pivot.
Support: S1 29.735 (price is essentially sitting on it), then S2 29.095.
Resistance: R1 31.805, then R2 32.445.
Pattern-based short-horizon expectation (provided): slight negative bias over next day/month, modestly positive over next week.
Positioning/sentiment: Very call-heavy open interest (put/call OI ~0.11) and zero put volume today → skewed bullish/“risk-on” positioning, but note volume is tiny (total volume ~10), so the signal is not strong.
Volatility: IV (30d) ~52.95 vs historical vol ~21.54 → options are pricing large moves relative to realized volatility.
IV rank/percentile: IV rank ~10 and IV percentile ~22 → despite the high absolute IV, it’s relatively low versus its own recent history, implying fear is not spiking right now.
Takeaway: Options lean bullish on positioning, but low activity limits conviction; not a clear “options-confirmed” buy.
Technical Summary
Sell
9
Buy
3
Positive Catalysts
AM Best affirmed Spinnaker Insurance Company’s A- (Excellent) financial strength rating, citing strong balance sheet strength and stable operating performance.
Hippo’s continued capital support helped drive surplus growth over five years, supporting underwriting capacity and perceived stability.
Spinnaker’s conservative underwriting and diversification plans (via partnership with The Baldwin Group) could improve durability of results.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Medium-term growth targets are viewed as risky in a softening market (per analyst commentary), which can cap upside and raise execution risk.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $120.6M, up ~26.15% YoY → strong top-line growth trend.
Profitability: Net income and EPS show a very large YoY decline (net income to $98.1M, EPS to 3.77, both sharply down YoY) → indicates significant earnings volatility/deterioration versus the prior-year quarter in the dataset.
Overall read: Growth is good, but earnings quality/consistency looks unstable based on the YoY compression in net income/EPS.
Wall Street “pros” view: acknowledges progress/targets and some upside to PT vs current price.
Wall Street “cons” view: warns that the strong growth embedded in targets carries risk into a softening market; overall stance is not an aggressive buy.
Positioning/trading context: hedge funds and insiders are neutral; no recent congress trading data available.
Wall Street analysts forecast HIPO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HIPO is 39.5 USD with a low forecast of 34 USD and a high forecast of 45 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast HIPO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HIPO is 39.5 USD with a low forecast of 34 USD and a high forecast of 45 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 28.920
Low
34
Averages
39.5
High
45
Current: 28.920
Low
34
Averages
39.5
High
45
Keefe Bruyette
Market Perform
maintain
$33 -> $34
AI Analysis
2025-12-10
Reason
Keefe Bruyette
Price Target
$33 -> $34
AI Analysis
2025-12-10
maintain
Market Perform
Reason
Keefe Bruyette raised the firm's price target on Hippo to $34 from $33 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares. The very strong growth embedded in Hippo's medium-term targets presents risks into a softening market, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Citizens JMP
Outperform
maintain
$40 -> $45
2025-10-14
Reason
Citizens JMP
Price Target
$40 -> $45
2025-10-14
maintain
Outperform
Reason
Citizens JMP raised the firm's price target on Hippo to $45 from $40 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm expects Q3 results for the insurance sector to be highlighted by lighter-than-typical catastrophe losses, modest mark to market book value tailwinds, and potential for continued issues around casualty loss reserves, but thinks focus will be zeroed in on the pricing environment, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for HIPO
