Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: momentum has turned down short-term (MACD histogram negative and expanding) and price is sitting just above the key pivot (421), meaning downside to the first support (409) is still very plausible.
Near-term setup is binary with earnings (2026-02-05 pre-market) and options pricing is elevated (IV percentile 92), suggesting the market expects a sizable move; without a proprietary “strong buy” signal today, the risk/reward is not attractive for entering immediately.
Longer-term backdrop is constructive (bullish moving-average stack and strong recent quarterly growth), so this is more of a “wait for a better entry/confirmation” than a bearish call.
Politicians / Congress: No recent congress trading data available.
Technical Analysis
Price action: closed at 425.08 (-3.12% regular session) with a post-market bounce (+2.14%), indicating dip-buying interest but not yet a confirmed reversal.
Trend: moving averages remain bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), which supports the intermediate-term uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram -2.883 and negatively expanding = bearish/weakening momentum in the near term.
RSI(6): 43.19 (neutral-to-soft), not oversold—room for further downside before a “washed out” bounce is likely.
Key levels: Pivot 421.05 (near-term line in the sand). Resistance: 432.79 then 440.04. Support: 409.31 then 402.05.
Quant pattern read-through (similar candlesticks): modest negative bias over the next week (-3.23% expected) and roughly flat-to-down over a month (-1.08%), aligning with the weakening MACD.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning/sentiment: very low put/call ratios (OI 0.19; volume 0.18) = strongly call-skewed, generally bullish sentiment.
Implied volatility: 30D IV 49.66 with IV percentile 92 = options are expensive vs recent history, consistent with an earnings-driven move being priced in.
Activity: today’s total option volume 745 vs 30-day average (76.73) indicates subdued activity; OI totals 10,658 with calls dominating (8,944 calls vs 1,714 puts).
Takeaway: sentiment leans bullish, but pricing implies the “easy” upside may already be priced; the market is paying up for event exposure into earnings.
Technical Summary
Sell
4
Buy
7
Positive Catalysts
supports execution credibility and program progress.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Near-term technical weakness: bearish MACD and a sharp down day increases probability of a retest of 421 pivot and possibly 409 support.
Insider behavior: insiders are selling, with selling amount up 318.04% over the last month (often a sentiment headwind).
Earnings timing: the stock is entering earnings with elevated implied volatility (IV percentile 92), meaning a strong report may be required to justify immediate upside follow-through.
Price target friction: Goldman’s raised target is $425, which is essentially at/near the current price zone—suggesting limited “obvious” upside on that view without further estimate/target increases.
Financial Performance
Latest provided quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $3.192B, up 16.11% YoY (solid top-line acceleration).
Net income: $145M, up 43.56% YoY (profit growth outpacing revenue).
EPS: $3.68, up 43.75% YoY (strong earnings leverage).
Gross margin: 12.34%, up 5.38% YoY (margin expansion supports quality of growth).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: analyst sentiment improved into early 2026.
2026-01-20: Goldman Sachs reiterated Buy and raised PT to $425 (from $384) — but PT now sits roughly at the current price area.
2026-01-05: Melius upgraded to Buy from Hold — incremental positive.
2025-12-11: Citi initiated Buy with $376 PT — Buy rating but a meaningfully lower target than current pricing.
Wall Street pros: multiple Buy ratings and recent upgrades/target raise suggest confidence in sector/defense cycle and company execution.
Wall Street cons: mixed target levels (Citi notably lower; GS now “at market”) imply the stock may already reflect a lot of good news, making immediate upside less compelling without an earnings-driven catalyst.
Wall Street analysts forecast HII stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HII is 344.8 USD with a low forecast of 300 USD and a high forecast of 376 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast HII stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HII is 344.8 USD with a low forecast of 300 USD and a high forecast of 376 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Buy
1 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 369.380
Low
300
Averages
344.8
High
376
Current: 369.380
Low
300
Averages
344.8
High
376
Goldman Sachs
Buy
downgrade
$425 -> $419
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
Reason
Goldman Sachs
Price Target
$425 -> $419
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
downgrade
Buy
Reason
Goldman Sachs lowered the firm's price target on HII to $419 from $425 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company's earnings and free cash were ahead of consensus, with shipbuilding revenue growth again very strong at 20%, though margins were slightly below the firm's forecast in part due to negative EACs at Newport News, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Goldman Sachs
Buy
maintain
$384 -> $425
2026-01-20
Reason
Goldman Sachs
Price Target
$384 -> $425
2026-01-20
maintain
Buy
Reason
Goldman Sachs raised the firm's price target on HII to $425 from $384 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm's Q4 Aerospace & Defense preview highlights favorable aerospace OE conditions, with supply below demand, while aftermarket growth outpaces global ASMs with strong pricing supporting margins, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Business jet demand remains solid amid tight supply, defense hardware growth is improving though margins face risk from shifting contracts, defense tech momentum emphasizes faster, commercial-style providers, and federal IT obligations continue under pressure, the firm says.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for HII
