Should I Buy HIG? HIG 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Hartford Insurance Group Inc (HIG) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

142.560

1 Day change

0.18%

52 Week Range

144.500

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: HIG is technically extended (RSI very overbought) and sitting close to near-term resistance, which skews risk/reward toward a pullback.
Fundamentals/news flow are strong (2025 results, Q4 beat, buybacks), but much of that appears priced in after the run-up.
Options flow is signaling near-term caution (heavy put volume), and insiders have been net sellers recently—both are unfavorable for immediate entry.
Net: wait for a dip closer to support (around the mid-130s) rather than buying at current levels near resistance.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) and momentum is positive (MACD histogram 1.141, expanding).
Overbought: RSI_6 at 87.0 indicates the stock is stretched and vulnerable to a near-term cooldown.
Key levels:
- Resistance: R2 ~142.79 (next upside ceiling); price is already above R1 ~139.50.
- Support: Pivot ~134.19 (first meaningful area to watch on a pullback), then S1 ~128.88.
Pattern-based projection provided: suggests limited next-week upside but a meaningful negative bias over the next month (-5.91%), aligning with the overbought setup.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning vs flow:
- Open interest put/call (0.53) leans bullish/constructive positioning overall.
- Put volume is dominating today (put/call volume 4.75; puts 508 vs calls 107), which is typically bearish near-term or reflects active hedging after a run.
Activity/attention: Today’s option volume is ~232% of the 30-day average (elevated).
Volatility: 30D IV ~20.8 vs historical vol ~15.86 (IV modestly elevated vs realized), consistent with increased demand for protection; IV percentile ~43 (not extreme).

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Strong 2025 profitability: core earnings and net income both up >20% YoY.
- Q4 2025 business strength: Business Insurance net income +27% YoY and written premiums +7%.
- Shareholder returns: $546M returned in Q4 (buybacks + dividends), supportive for EPS.
- Analyst price targets have been trending up post-results (multiple raises across major firms).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Technical overstretch: RSI indicates overbought conditions, increasing odds of a near-term pullback.
- Insider activity: reported insider selling surged recently (selling amount up sharply over the last month), which is a sentiment headwind.
- Options sentiment: very heavy put volume today suggests near-term caution/hedging.
- Sector/cycle backdrop: multiple analysts highlight a softening P&C cycle and potential margin/pricing headwinds, which can cap upside from here.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q4
Revenue: $7.339B, +6.59% YoY (steady top-line growth).
Net income: $1.126B, +32.78% YoY (profit growth accelerating).
EPS: $3.98, +38.19% YoY (strong operating leverage/capital return impact).
Overall: growth trend in Q4 is robust and supports the longer-term thesis, but the stock’s near-term entry looks extended after the move.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: broad wave of price target increases following Q4 results/model updates.
Rating mix: split between Buy/Overweight (e.g., UBS, Goldman, Wells Fargo, Cantor) and Neutral/Equal Weight/In Line (e.g., Citi, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Evercore, Roth).
Price targets vs current (~140.86): several raised targets cluster in the low-to-mid 140s (suggesting limited immediate upside), while bullish outliers (e.g., mid-150s to 165) argue for longer-run upside.
Wall Street pros: strong profitability, improving expense ratio commentary, capital return tailwind.
Wall Street cons: softening P&C cycle and margin/pricing headwinds could make forward expectations harder to beat.

18 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast HIG stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HIG is 147.47 USD with a low forecast of 120 USD and a high forecast of 162 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

10 Buy

8 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 142.300

Low

120

Averages

147.47

High

162

Current: 142.300

Low

120

Averages

147.47

High

162

Keefe Bruyette

Outperform

maintain

$160 -> $163

AI Analysis

2026-02-05

New

Reason

Keefe Bruyette

Price Target

$160 -> $163

AI Analysis

2026-02-05

New

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Keefe Bruyette raised the firm's price target on Hartford Financial to $163 from $160 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Sustained premium growth, stable core underwriting margins, and persistent share buybacks should boost shares over the next 12 months, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Citi

Neutral

maintain

$138 -> $143

2026-02-04

New

Reason

Citi

Price Target

$138 -> $143

2026-02-04

New

maintain

Neutral

Reason

Citi raised the firm's price target on Hartford Financial to $143 from $138 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.

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HIG Should I Buy

HIG Should I Buy

Should You Buy Hartford Insurance Group Inc (HIG) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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