Buy now for a short-term swing setup: the proprietary SwingMax entry is fresh (triggered 2026-02-04) and price is still close to the signal (+0.69% since), which keeps the risk/reward attractive for an impatient entry.
Upside is most likely capped near resistance: first at 47.42 (R1), then 48.45 (R2); a clean break above R1 would improve momentum.
Fundamentals are not currently the reason to buy (Q3 showed margin/income pressure), so the thesis here is technical/sentiment-driven, not long-term compounding.
SwingMax: entry signal on 2026-02-04; price is +0.69% since the entry, suggesting the move is still in its early phase.
Technical Analysis
Trend/price action: +3.53% to 46.78 (close), pushing toward the 47.42 resistance zone.
MACD: histogram -0.12 (below zero) but negatively contracting → downside momentum is fading; often consistent with a basing-to-upturn phase.
RSI(6):61.94 → mildly bullish/neutral; not an overbought extreme.
Moving averages:converging → compression/consolidation; typically precedes a directional move.
Key levels: Pivot 45.75 (near-term line in the sand). Supports 44.09 / 43.06. Resistances 47.42 / 48.45.
Pattern-based forward read: similar-pattern stats suggest -0.55% next day, but +1% next week and +1.62% next month (slightly bullish beyond very short term).
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Neutral
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning (OI): Put/Call OI 0.32 → call-heavy open interest, generally bullish/constructive positioning.
Flow (volume): Put/Call volume 1.0 → today’s traded sentiment is neutral (puts and calls balanced), but overall volume is very light.
Volatility: 30D IV 54.35 vs historical vol 29.31 → options are priced rich vs realized; IV percentile 76.89 indicates elevated implied volatility relative to its history.
Liquidity/activity: today volume 4 contracts (very low); treat options signals as less reliable due to thin tape.
Technical Summary
Sell
1
Buy
12
Positive Catalysts
suggests market participants are positioned more bullish than bearish.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Near-term resistance overhead: price is approaching 47.42–48.45; failure there can trigger quick pullbacks.
Profitability pressure in latest reported quarter: gross margin and net income were down YoY, which can limit sustained upside.
Analyst sentiment recently cooled: Morgan Stanley downgrade after the rally implies the easy upside may be behind the stock near term.
No supportive news flow in the last week (no fresh positive narrative/catalyst until earnings).
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3
Revenue:$1.168B, -0.68% YoY (slight contraction).
Net income:$25M, -13.79% YoY (declining profitability).
EPS:$0.28, flat YoY.
Gross margin:6.16%, -36.43% YoY (notable margin compression; key fundamental concern).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
2026-01-16 (Morgan Stanley): downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight; PT $49 unchanged (tone: more balanced/less upside after rally).
2025-11-17 (Wells Fargo): initiated Equal Weight, PT $42 (view: shares more fully valued with growth concerns).
Wall Street pros: upside case tied to operational execution + potential earnings catalyst; bull PTs still well above current.
Wall Street cons: two “Equal Weight” stances and a downgrade signal limited conviction at current levels, especially with recent margin pressure.
Wall Street analysts forecast HGV stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HGV is 48.16 USD with a low forecast of 42 USD and a high forecast of 59 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast HGV stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HGV is 48.16 USD with a low forecast of 42 USD and a high forecast of 59 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 46.250
Low
42
Averages
48.16
High
59
Current: 46.250
Low
42
Averages
48.16
High
59
Morgan Stanley
Stephen Grambling
Overweight -> Equal Weight
downgrade
$49
AI Analysis
2026-01-16
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Stephen Grambling
Price Target
$49
AI Analysis
2026-01-16
downgrade
Overweight -> Equal Weight
Reason
Morgan Stanley analyst Stephen Grambling downgraded Hilton Grand Vacations to Equal Weight from Overweight with an unchanged price target of $49. After the recent rally, the firm downgraded several stocks and takes a more balanced view of the gaming, lodging and leisure space heading into 2026. While consumers should benefit from stimulus and businesses appear poised to increase travel, goods are getting renewed interest in a falling rate environment and the cycle is later for services, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Morgan Stanley is trimming its expose to the group.
Wells Fargo
Equal Weight
initiated
$42
2025-11-17
Reason
Wells Fargo
Price Target
$42
2025-11-17
initiated
Equal Weight
Reason
Wells Fargo initiated coverage of Hilton Grand Vacations with an Equal Weight rating and $42 price target. The firm finds the shares fully valued given its growth concerns for the Industry.
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