Not a good buy right now: price is extended/overbought (RSI_6 ~87) and trading near the next resistance zone (R2 ~29.62), which skews near-term risk/reward against an impatient entry.
Upside looks capped short-term: pre-market ~29.35 is already above Morgan Stanley’s $28 target and close to KBW’s $30 target.
Near-term statistical pattern read is unfavorable beyond 1 day (model indicates ~-6.47% next week and ~-7.87% next month), suggesting dip risk after the run-up.
Upcoming catalyst risk: earnings on 2026-02-19 (after hours) can create a sharp move; with the stock stretched, the cleaner buy setup is not present.
Trend: Bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) with positive momentum (MACD histogram +0.191 and expanding).
Overbought/extended: RSI_6 at ~87.3 suggests the stock is stretched and vulnerable to pullbacks.
Levels: Pivot 27.83; Resistance R1 28.94 (already reclaimed), next resistance R2 29.62 (price ~29.35 is approaching this cap).
Near-term setup: strong uptrend but poor entry timing for an impatient buyer—better odds after a pullback toward pivot/28 area or a clean breakout above ~29.62 with follow-through.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning/sentiment: Put/Call OI ratio 0.4 is call-leaning (generally bullish).
Volume: Put volume is 0 and total volume is low (25 contracts), so sentiment signal is not very “confirmed” by heavy trading.
Volatility: 30D IV ~48.5 vs historical vol ~23.5 indicates elevated implied volatility (market pricing bigger moves, likely into earnings).
Interpretation: Options skew is bullish, but thin volume + elevated IV suggests paying up for exposure right before a potential catalyst (earnings).
Takeaway: fundamentals were strong in the last quarter, but the current price action suggests much of that strength may already be reflected short-term.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: price targets moved up into late 2025.
Wall Street pros view: favorable positioning to rotate underwriting toward stronger lines; cycle management seen as an advantage; industry viewed attractively by some.
Wall Street cons view: acknowledged P&C cycle challenges (softening property pricing, more personal auto competition).
Net: Street is constructive but not unanimously bullish; with the stock already near/above key targets, incremental upside from analyst re-rates looks limited in the immediate term.
Wall Street analysts forecast HG stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HG is 29.2 USD with a low forecast of 24 USD and a high forecast of 32 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast HG stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HG is 29.2 USD with a low forecast of 24 USD and a high forecast of 32 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 29.470
Low
24
Averages
29.2
High
32
Current: 29.470
Low
24
Averages
29.2
High
32
Morgan Stanley
analyst
Equal Weight
maintain
$27 -> $28
AI Analysis
2025-12-16
Reason
Morgan Stanley
analyst
Price Target
$27 -> $28
AI Analysis
2025-12-16
maintain
Equal Weight
Reason
Morgan Stanley raised the firm's price target on Hamilton Insurance to $28 from $27 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Although the P&C insurance sector faces known challenges, including softening pricing in property and more competition in personal auto, attractive valuations and strong casualty pricing partially offset this, says the analyst, who maintains an Attractive industry view heading into 2026.
Keefe Bruyette
Outperform
maintain
$28 -> $30
2025-11-20
Reason
Keefe Bruyette
Price Target
$28 -> $30
2025-11-20
maintain
Outperform
Reason
Keefe Bruyette raised the firm's price target on Hamilton Insurance to $30 from $28 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Hamilton's ability to lean into hardening lines and pull back from softening lines is a distinct advantage as the cycle rotates, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
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