Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: price is pressing into near-term resistance (36.33–36.87) with a short-term downside bias from the pattern-based forecast.
Bullish options positioning (low put/call ratios) and positive cash-flow guidance are constructive, but they don’t offset (1) heavy insider selling and (2) near-term technical crowding near resistance.
Best call today: Hold / don’t chase at 36.05; if already owned, it’s reasonable to hold given distribution growth + FCF outlook, but adding here is unattractive.
Technical Analysis
Trend/momentum: MACD histogram is positive and expanding (bullish momentum building).
RSI(6) at 66.86: bullish/strong but getting close to overbought, implying less attractive upside-to-downside for a fresh entry.
Moving averages: converging, suggesting a transition zone where breakouts often fail without strong volume.
Resistance: R1 36.331, R2 36.871 (price is close to R1 → limited immediate upside)
Support: S1 34.581, S2 34.041
Short-horizon statistical/pattern read: Similar-pattern model indicates 80% odds of about -1.63% next day, -6.19% next week, -8.43% next month → unfavorable timing for an impatient entry.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Bullish skew (OI put/call 0.41 and volume put/call 0.30 both show more call positioning than puts).
Activity: today’s option volume 300 vs 30-day average (today vs avg) 52.08% → participation is below normal, so sentiment signal is not strongly “crowded.”
Volatility/pricing: IV30 29.6% vs historical vol 15.42% → options imply a larger move than recent realized; IV percentile 28.69 / IV rank 8.22 suggests IV is not extremely elevated versus its own history.
Open interest: calls 8,695 vs puts 3,567 (supports bullish positioning).
Technical Summary
Sell
2
Buy
10
Positive Catalysts
Guidance/capital plan: Company expects ~40% lower 2026 capex and projects adjusted free cash flow growth to $850M–$900M (supportive for distributions/returns).
Shareholder returns: quarterly cash distribution increased to $0.7641.
Flow/positioning: Hedge funds are buying (reported buying amount up ~1799% QoQ).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
with RSI elevated and a bearish short-term pattern forecast.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter season (from news): Q4 2025
Net income: $168M, slightly down YoY
Operating cash flow: $245.6M net cash from operations
EPS: $0.72 (beat); Revenue: $404.2M (miss)
Latest provided snapshot (financial data feed): 2025/Q3
Revenue $420.9M, +11.2% YoY
Net income $97.7M, +66.72% YoY
EPS 0.75, +19.05% YoY
Forward-looking cash-flow setup: 2026 outlook calls for higher adjusted FCF alongside lower capex, which is structurally positive for midstream return profiles.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
No analyst rating/price target change data was provided in the dataset, so a true “trend” summary can’t be confirmed.
Street-style cons (likely): revenue miss, dependency on basin activity/throughput expectations, and the strong insider selling signal potentially raising near-term skepticism.
Wall Street analysts forecast HESM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HESM is 36.5 USD with a low forecast of 34 USD and a high forecast of 39 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast HESM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HESM is 36.5 USD with a low forecast of 34 USD and a high forecast of 39 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 34.920
Low
34
Averages
36.5
High
39
Current: 34.920
Low
34
Averages
36.5
High
39
Raymond James
J.R. Weston
Outperform
downgrade
$48 -> $35
AI Analysis
2025-10-24
Reason
Raymond James
J.R. Weston
Price Target
$48 -> $35
AI Analysis
2025-10-24
downgrade
Outperform
Reason
Raymond James analyst J.R. Weston lowered the firm's price target on Hess Midstream LP to $35 from $48 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the midstream suppliers group ahead of the Q3 reports. Midstream is showing "stability" for investors as strong diesel margins and a consensus view that oil markets are oversupplied have pushed refiners to the center of generalist attention in the energy sector, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Raymond James does not major changes to the group's 2025 outlooks.
Goldman Sachs
Neutral
maintain
$36
2025-09-29
Reason
Goldman Sachs
Price Target
$36
2025-09-29
maintain
Neutral
Reason
Goldman Sachs reinstated coverage of Hess Midstream LP with a Neutral rating and $36 price target. The firm sees the stock as fully valued, noting that growth expectations for the company have been reset to reflect the softer oil outlook and strong contracts limit near-term downside, but it still believes that consensus is \"too high\". Goldman adds that while Hess Midstream's capital return potential is compelling given low capex needs, the range of outcomes for the CVX Bakken review \"offers both upside and downside risks\".
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