Should I Buy HE? HE 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Hawaiian Electric Industries Inc (HE) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

17.080

1 Day change

0.53%

52 Week Range

17.380

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: price ($16.45) is extended near resistance with overbought momentum signals while key fundamental/regulatory uncertainties remain.
Upside looks limited near-term vs. downside risk: current price is well above the latest published Street targets ($12.50–$13).
Options positioning is strongly call-leaning and IV is elevated, which often accompanies crowded optimism and increases pullback risk.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock today.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) and MACD histogram positive and expanding (0.0629) → momentum still upward.
Condition: Overbought/extended (RSI_6 = 75.842) → chase-risk is high.
Levels: Pivot/support area 15.56 (then S1 14.74). Resistance: already above R1 16.375 and approaching R2 16.88 → near-term reward/risk is less attractive.
Pattern-based forward odds (similar candlesticks): +0.74% next day, but -1.72% next week and -4.27% next month bias → favors caution after a run-up.
Market backdrop: S&P 500 down (-0.52%) while HE was up, which can also precede mean reversion.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: Bullish/call-skewed (very low put-call on volume 0.18; OI put-call 0.49) → traders leaning upside.
Volatility: HV ~51.65 vs IV30 ~53.91 with IV Percentile 88.84 → options are pricing elevated uncertainty; often happens around event/regulatory risk.
Activity: Today’s option volume (659) is below recent averages (5D avg 1795; 10D avg 1466), suggesting no fresh, broad-based conviction despite the price pop.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Prior catalysts cited by analysts behind the rally: potential wildfire settlement progress, recovery fund study, favorable convertible bond expectations, S&P 600 inclusion, higher earnings expectations (per Barclays note).
- Upcoming event: Earnings 2026-02-27 (After Hours) could reset expectations if results/updates surprise positively.
- Institutional/insider flow signals: Hedge funds and insiders flagged as Neutral (no negative rush to exit in the provided trend data).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Regulatory/legal overhang still central: Jefferies argues shares have “pre-priced success” across unresolved items (rebasing construct, PBR repair package, numeric liability cap, wildfire fund design).
- Valuation vs Street targets is stretched: current ~$16.45 vs PTs $12.50–$13 → creates downside if catalysts stall.
- No supportive news flow in the last week to justify continuation after a sharp move.
- Elevated IV and overbought technicals increase the odds of a pullback even without bad news.
- Political/influential buying/selling: No recent congress trading data available (no confirmed political catalyst).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $790.61M, -5.12% YoY → top-line contraction.
Earnings: Net income $30.75M, -129.45% YoY and EPS $0.18, -119.78% YoY → profitability trend is weak (as reported in the snapshot).
Margins: Gross margin 6.58 (+2.97% YoY) → slight margin improvement but not enough to offset the earnings decline.
Near-term setup: with earnings approaching (2026-02-27), fundamentals can become the driver again, increasing event risk for buyers at current elevated price levels.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent Street actions are mixed but skew cautious:
- Barclays (2026-01-26): Equal Weight; PT raised to $13 (from $11) on improved settlement/fund expectations.
- Jefferies (2026-01-20): Downgraded to Underperform; PT $12.50 (from $13.50) citing unresolved gates and that the stock is discounting an unearned 2028 risk/earnings profile.
- Jefferies (2025-12-03): Hold; PT $12 after Q3.
Wall Street pros/cons view:
- Pros: progress toward recovery mechanisms/settlements and better earnings expectations.
- Cons: execution/regulatory uncertainty remains high and the stock price is already above published target ranges, limiting perceived upside.

2 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast HE stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HE is 11 USD with a low forecast of 10 USD and a high forecast of 12 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

0 Buy

2 Hold

0 Sell

Hold

Current: 16.990

Low

Averages

High

Current: 16.990

Low

Averages

High

Barclays

Equal Weight

maintain

$11 -> $13

AI Analysis

2026-01-26

Reason

Barclays

Price Target

$11 -> $13

AI Analysis

2026-01-26

maintain

Equal Weight

Reason

Barclays raised the firm's price target on Hawaiian Electric to $13 from $11 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The company's share outperformance has been driven by potential wildfire settlement approval, a positive Wildfire Recovery Fund Study, favorable convertible bond term expectations, S&P 600 inclusion, shareholder lawsuit settlement, and higher earnings expectations, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Jefferies

Hold

Underperform

downgrade

2026-01-20

Reason

Jefferies

Price Target

2026-01-20

downgrade

Hold

Underperform

Reason

Jefferies downgraded Hawaiian Electric to Underperform from Hold with a price target of $12.50, down from $13.50. The re-rating of shares has "pre-priced success across multiple unresolved gates," including the February 6 alternative rebasing filing and the 2026 legislative outcomes on a fund and cap, the analyst tells investors. There is still no implemented alternative rebasing construct, no approved PBR repair package, no numeric liability cap, and no enacted wildfire fund design, notes the analyst, who argues that the stock is discounting a 2028 earnings and risk profile that "has not been earned in the record."

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HE Should I Buy

HE Should I Buy

Should You Buy Hawaiian Electric Industries Inc (HE) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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