Should I Buy HD? HD 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Home Depot Inc (HD) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

385.150

1 Day change

0.73%

52 Week Range

426.750

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: price ($386.46) is pressing into near-term resistance (R1 ~ $388.99) with short-term momentum looking stretched.
Uptrend intact, but risk/reward is less attractive at current levels given RSI(6) ~ 69.7 (near overbought) and a still-negative MACD histogram.
Options positioning is bullish (calls favored) and Congress activity shows net buying, but near-term pattern-based odds point to sloppy 1M forward returns.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish structure with SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200, indicating an established uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.0954 (below zero) but negatively contracting → downside momentum is fading, not fully reversed.
RSI: RSI_6 69.729 → near overbought; upside may be limited short term without consolidation.
Key levels: Pivot $380 (important near-term support). Resistance at R1 $388.993 then R2 $394.548. Supports at S1 $371.008 and S2 $365.453.
Stat/pattern note: Similar-pattern projection shows ~+1.76% next day, -0.31% next week, -4.01% next month (near-term chop with weaker 1-month bias).

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: Put/call ratios (OI 0.74, volume 0.4) suggest bullish-to-risk-on positioning (more call interest/flow than puts).
Positioning: Call OI 132,284 vs Put OI 97,767 → call open interest lead supports constructive sentiment.
Volatility: IV(30d) 29.98% vs historical vol 22.43%; IV percentile 86.45 → options pricing implies elevated expected movement (often around catalysts).
Activity: Today’s option volume 11,372 with volume vs 30D average ~40% → not a “hot flow” day despite bullish skew.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

supports productivity for Pro customers and reinforces HD’s tech-driven execution story.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

with RSI near overbought, increasing the odds of a pullback/consolidation rather than a clean breakout.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2026/Q3
Revenue: $41.352B, +2.82% YoY (top-line growth positive).
Profitability: Net income $3.601B, -1.29% YoY; EPS $3.62, -1.36% YoY → modest earnings contraction versus last year.
Margins: Gross margin 31.41%, +0.03 YoY → essentially flat/slightly improved, but not yet translating into higher EPS.
Read-through: Growth is present on sales, but earnings leverage is not accelerating—supports a quality hold, not a “must-buy-now” chase.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Overall tone is constructive, with multiple Buy/Overweight/Outperform ratings maintained and several price target raises in Jan 2026 (TD Cowen $450, Truist $405).
December was mixed: Some firms lowered targets after guidance/investor day (e.g., RBC to $366 with Sector Perform; others trimmed but stayed positive), reflecting debate on timing of the housing recovery.
Wall Street pros: Best-in-class operator, Pro ecosystem and delivery/tech investments, potential share gains into a recovery, long-duration quality retailer.
Wall Street cons: Near-term category growth can stay flat, recovery timing uncertain, and the stock can look priced for a faster housing upcycle than what fundamentals deliver.

23 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast HD stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HD is 401.47 USD with a low forecast of 320 USD and a high forecast of 441 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

17 Buy

5 Hold

1 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 382.370

Low

320

Averages

401.47

High

441

Current: 382.370

Low

320

Averages

401.47

High

441

TD Cowen

Max Rakhlenko

Buy

maintain

$410 -> $450

AI Analysis

2026-01-20

Reason

TD Cowen

Max Rakhlenko

Price Target

$410 -> $450

AI Analysis

2026-01-20

maintain

Buy

Reason

TD Cowen analyst Max Rakhlenko raised the firm's price target on Home Depot to $450 from $410 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the hardlines group. Planet Fitness is TD's top idea, followed by Home Depot and O'Reilly Automotive.

Truist

Buy

maintain

$390 -> $405

2026-01-16

Reason

Truist

Price Target

$390 -> $405

2026-01-16

maintain

Buy

Reason

Truist raised the firm's price target on Home Depot to $405 from $390 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares as part of a broader research note on Hardlines/Broadlines consumer names. The firm is citing its latest Truist Card reads and ICR holiday updates in adjusting its sales and earnings estimates, though it also believes that a significant increase in tax refunds will likely boost sales across the retail space in what are typically seasonally softer months, the analyst tells investors in a research note. For the company, sales trends have remained stable in December despite more difficult comparisons, the firm added.

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HD Should I Buy

HD Should I Buy

Should You Buy Home Depot Inc (HD) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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