Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: the tape is still bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5, MACD below zero), so odds favor more chop/down before a clean rebound.
Attractive longer-term setup (strong Q3 growth + hedge funds buying + big upside vs. bullish price targets), but the current entry is not confirmed by trend or proprietary signals.
Better stance today: HOLD and only turn aggressive on a confirmed reclaim of the pivot (~159.45) / strength through ~166, or a clean bounce off ~152.55 support with improving momentum.
Technical Analysis
Trend/structure: Bearish alignment (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) indicates price is in a downtrend / pullback phase.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.599 (below 0) but “negatively contracting” suggests downside momentum is fading, not yet reversed.
RSI: RSI_6 = 32.36 (weak/near-oversold), supportive of a potential bounce, but not a standalone buy signal while MAs remain bearish.
Key levels: Pivot 159.45 (near-term line in the sand). Support S1 152.55 then S2 148.28. Resistance R1 166.35 then R2 170.62.
Quant pattern read: Similar-pattern stats imply modest near-term upside but a negative 1-month bias (-3.76%), consistent with “not a great chase entry today.”
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning (OI): Put/Call OI ratio 0.38 (call-heavy open interest) = generally bullish longer-positioning/expectations.
Flow (today’s volume): Put/Call volume ratio 2.25 with very small absolute volume (puts 18, calls 8) = more near-term put demand/hedging, but liquidity is thin so interpret cautiously.
Volatility: 30D IV 44.68 vs HV 32.7 (IV > realized) with IV percentile 72.51 = options pricing in elevated risk/event premium.
Activity vs baseline: Today’s volume is ~23.85x avg (from a low base), and today’s OI is ~68.27x avg (also suggests small-baseline distortion).
Technical Summary
Sell
6
Buy
6
Positive Catalysts
Hedge fund activity: “Hedge Funds are Buying” with +2084.66% increase in buying amount last quarter.
Earnings catalyst: Q4/FY2025 results scheduled 2026-02-25 after hours (potential re-rating catalyst if results/guide confirm strength).
Takeaway: Fundamentals look strong, but the stock’s current trading setup is not yet confirming a fresh uptrend entry.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Trend in ratings/targets: Targets moved up sharply into mid-Nov 2025 (Truist to $234; Citizens JMP to $255), but Oppenheimer simultaneously downgraded to Perform from Outperform, signaling a more mixed Street view.
Wall Street “pros” view: Strong quarter execution, improved profitability/scale, and reduced storm-volatility narrative support the bull case.
Wall Street “cons” view: Florida market becoming more competitive post-reform, depopulation tailwind largely played out, and potential core margin pressure limits organic growth over the next 18–24 months.
Net: Bullish upside targets exist, but at least one notable firm sees the easy gains behind it—consistent with HOLD rather than a must-buy today.
Wall Street analysts forecast HCI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HCI is 221.25 USD with a low forecast of 190 USD and a high forecast of 255 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast HCI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HCI is 221.25 USD with a low forecast of 190 USD and a high forecast of 255 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 160.510
Low
190
Averages
221.25
High
255
Current: 160.510
Low
190
Averages
221.25
High
255
Oppenheimer
Oppenheimer
Outperform -> Perform
downgrade
AI Analysis
2025-11-13
Reason
Oppenheimer
Oppenheimer
Price Target
AI Analysis
2025-11-13
downgrade
Outperform -> Perform
Reason
As previously reported, Oppenheimer downgraded HCI Group to Perform from Outperform. The firm notes that over the past two years, the stock is up 133% vs. the S&P's 51% and is up 59% year-to-date vs. S&P's 16%. While Oppenheimer's still holds the company and its management in high regard, it thinks certain key fundamentals have changed since its Outperform rating. Specifically, key legislative reforms initiated in 2023 have dramatically improved the Florida homeowners market, leading to a more competitive environment today, which limits organic growth opportunities over the next 18-24 months, while growth from Citizens depopulation has largely played out, all of which put more pressure on core margins.
Oppenheimer
Michael Phillips
Outperform -> Perform
downgrade
2025-11-13
Reason
Oppenheimer
Michael Phillips
Price Target
2025-11-13
downgrade
Outperform -> Perform
Reason
Oppenheimer analyst Michael Phillips downgraded HCI Group to Perform from Outperform.
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