Should I Buy HCC? HCC 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Warrior Met Coal Inc (HCC) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

89.050

1 Day change

2.92%

52 Week Range

105.340

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Buy now (tactical entry): Price (88.4) is sitting just above key support (S1 ~87.65), while sentiment (options + analysts) is notably bullish.
Risk/reward is favorable for an impatient buyer: Downside is relatively defined by nearby supports (87.65 then 83.83) vs. upside back toward pivot (93.84) and resistance (100+).
Most important caveat: Heavy insider selling is a real negative, so this is best treated as a tactical buy into support rather than a “set-and-forget” conviction hold.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend/structure: Price is below the pivot (93.836), indicating the stock is still trading in a weaker zone near support.
Momentum (MACD): MACD histogram is negative (-1.512) but contracting, which often suggests bearish momentum is fading and a rebound attempt can form.
RSI: RSI_6 at ~32.9 is near oversold territory, consistent with a potential short-term bounce setup (not a confirmed reversal).
Moving averages: Converging MAs suggests compression/indecision—often a precursor to a bigger move; with price near support, the next move can easily be a snapback.
Key levels:
- Support: 87.651 (S1) then 83.83 (S2)
- Resistance: 93.836 (Pivot) then 100.02 (R1) and 103.841 (R2)
Pattern-based forward stats (provided): Skew is modestly positive beyond 1 day (next week +0.28%, next month +0.83%), supportive of a buy-into-support approach.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning is call-heavy: Open interest put/call 0.14 implies far more call OI than puts (bullish skew).
Daily flow also bullish: Put/call volume 0.33 (calls dominating today’s activity).
Volatility is elevated: 30D IV 64.49 vs historical vol 39.41; IV percentile 96.81 suggests the market is pricing a large move (often around catalysts like earnings).
Activity spike vs normal: Today’s volume vs 30D average is ~10.1x, indicating heightened interest/attention.
Takeaway: Options market is positioned for upside / protection demand is relatively low, but pricing implies a meaningful move is expected soon.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Analyst momentum sharply improved: Recent upgrades/target hikes (UBS to Buy; Jefferies raised PT) provide near-term institutional support.
- Fundamental narrative catalyst: Blue Creek ramp/longwall expansion theme is repeatedly cited as a margin/returns inflection driver.
- Industry catalyst (news): UBS expects met coal prices to stay higher near-term due to weather disruptions tightening an already tight physical market.
- Event catalyst ahead: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-12 (After Hours)—a positive print/outlook could re-rate the stock quickly.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Insiders are selling aggressively: Insider selling increased ~592.61% over the last month, a meaningful sentiment headwind.
- Recent price weakness: Regular session -2.62% and price below pivot indicates the market is currently selling rallies.
- Profitability/margins have been weakening (latest reported quarter): Margin compression increases sensitivity to coal price/volume surprises.
- Hedge fund stance: Hedge funds are neutral with no notable accumulation trend over the last quarter (less supportive of a sustained breakout).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3
Revenue: 328.589M, +0.27% YoY (essentially flat growth).
Net income: 36.598M, -12.37% YoY (declining profitability).
EPS: 0.70, -12.50% YoY.
Gross margin: 11.54, -25.31% YoY (notable margin compression).
Bottom line: Top line is stable, but earnings/margins softened—future upside depends on execution (Blue Creek ramp) and supportive met coal pricing.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Clearly improving—multiple price target increases and a major upgrade.
Key changes:
- 2026-01-29 (UBS): Upgraded to Buy from Neutral; PT $108 (from $100) on tight met coal market + improving returns/margins + Blue Creek ramp.
- 2026-01-20 (Jefferies): Reiterated Buy; PT raised to $120 (from $95) after updating for Q4 realized coal pricing.
- Prior tone (late 2025): UBS repeatedly raised PTs but stayed Neutral, implying the recent upgrade is a meaningful shift.
Wall Street pros: Blue Creek/longwall expansion and potential for higher returns; met coal pricing seen as supportive near-term.
Wall Street cons: Execution and commodity-price dependence; some firms were previously hesitant (Neutral/Market Perform) despite better ops—suggesting debate on how durable the margin upside will be.

7 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast HCC stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HCC is 83 USD with a low forecast of 72 USD and a high forecast of 100 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

3 Buy

4 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 86.520

Low

Averages

High

100

Current: 86.520

Low

Averages

High

100

UBS

Neutral -> Buy

upgrade

$100 -> $108

AI Analysis

2026-01-29

Reason

UBS

Price Target

$100 -> $108

AI Analysis

2026-01-29

upgrade

Neutral -> Buy

Reason

UBS upgraded Warrior Met Coal to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $108, up from $100. The firm believes met coal prices will stay higher in the near term as weather disruptions pressure an "already tight" physical premium coking coal market. Warrior is entering an "inflection point where returns and margins look compelling," the analyst tells investors in a research note. UBS says the company can post double-digit returns as Blue Creek ramps up. It sees further share upside considering a second longwall and higher coal prices that the market is not yet pricing in.

Jefferies

Buy

maintain

$95 -> $120

2026-01-20

Reason

Jefferies

Price Target

$95 -> $120

2026-01-20

maintain

Buy

Reason

Jefferies raised the firm's price target on Warrior Met Coal to $120 from $95 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after updating the firm's models to reflect Q4 actual coal prices.

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HCC Should I Buy

HCC Should I Buy

Should You Buy Warrior Met Coal Inc (HCC) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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