Buy now: trend and fundamentals are bullish, and price is sitting right on a key pivot/support area (~492) in pre-market.
Near-term expectation: likely modest chop (pattern model suggests ~flat next week but softer next month), yet the broader setup favors owning rather than waiting for a “perfect” dip.
Sentiment check: Wall Street is broadly constructive after Q4 and strong FY26 guidance; options positioning is mixed but not risk-off.
Technical Analysis
Price/levels: Pre-market ~496, just above Pivot 492.041 (near-term support). Upside levels: R1 517.14 then R2 532.646.
Momentum: MACD histogram positive (2.392) but contracting → upside momentum is slowing, not reversing.
RSI: RSI_6 ~57.9 (neutral-to-mildly bullish), not overbought.
Pattern-based forward bias (from similar candlesticks): 80% chance of -0.45% next day, +2% next week, -4.57% next month → suggests near-term consolidation risk even within a larger uptrend.
Positioning: Open-interest put/call ~1.06 = slightly more puts outstanding (mildly defensive/hedged), but today’s volume put/call ~0.6 indicates calls are leading intraday flow (more pro-upside trading).
Activity: Today’s option volume 1,195 vs 30D average (~75% of avg) → not a crowded/high-emotion tape.
Volatility: 30D IV ~25.82 vs HV ~29.16 and IV percentile ~26 (IV rank ~7.6) → options are relatively inexpensive; market isn’t pricing a big near-term shock.
Technical Summary
Sell
1
Buy
9
Positive Catalysts
reinforce brand/clinical execution.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Legislative/regulatory headline risk remains a recurring overhang (noted by at least one Neutral-rated firm citing “building legislative headwinds”).
MACD momentum is still positive but fading, increasing the chance of a near-term stall below ~517 resistance.
Pattern-based projection leans negative over the next month (-4.57%), implying potential for a pullback even if the longer trend stays up.
Flows/holders: Hedge funds and insiders are reported as neutral recently (no strong “smart money” accumulation signal).
Gross margin: 80.07%, +0.04% YoY (stable margins; efficiency gains appear to be flowing through).
Overall read: growth is improving with notable profitability expansion, consistent with the bullish guidance/analyst upgrades.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Clear upward revision cycle post-Q4: multiple firms raised price targets (e.g., UBS to 598, Cantor to 588, KeyBanc to 550, RBC to 555, Barclays to 551, Mizuho to 540).
Ratings skew positive: many Buys/Overweights/Outperforms; a few Neutrals/Equal Weight remain (e.g., BofA Neutral, Wells Fargo Equal Weight) mainly on policy/legislative and exchange-related pressures.
Wall Street “pros” view: strong core growth, expense control/efficiency initiatives, and better-than-expected FY26 outlook.
Wall Street “cons” view: exchange/ACA-related headwinds and state-directed payment variability, plus potential legislative/regulatory risk.
Influential/political trading check: No recent congress trading data available.
Wall Street analysts forecast HCA stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HCA is 491.89 USD with a low forecast of 420 USD and a high forecast of 525 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
19 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast HCA stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HCA is 491.89 USD with a low forecast of 420 USD and a high forecast of 525 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
13 Buy
5 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 513.760
Low
420
Averages
491.89
High
525
Current: 513.760
Low
420
Averages
491.89
High
525
Mizuho
Outperform
maintain
$520 -> $540
AI Analysis
2026-02-02
Reason
Mizuho
Price Target
$520 -> $540
AI Analysis
2026-02-02
maintain
Outperform
Reason
Mizuho raised the firm's price target on HCA Healthcare to $540 from $520 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm cites the company's "solid" Q4 performance for the target boost.
Wells Fargo
Equal Weight
maintain
$452 -> $481
2026-01-30
Reason
Wells Fargo
Price Target
$452 -> $481
2026-01-30
maintain
Equal Weight
Reason
Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on HCA Healthcare to $481 from $452 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm cites in-line Q4 2025 results and better-than-expected 2026 guidance, with upside vs. its previous estimates driven by a stronger "core" growth assumption, modestly lower gross exchange headwind, and modestly larger offsets.
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