Should I Buy GUTS? GUTS 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Fractyl Health Inc (GUTS) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Sell

Latest Price

0.410

1 Day change

3.75%

52 Week Range

3.030

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now: the stock is in a severe event-driven downtrend after a major regulatory/clinical update shock, and sentiment is still deteriorating.
Oversold technicals (RSI ~9) can produce a short bounce, but without a fresh positive catalyst or proprietary buy signal, the risk/reward is unfavorable for an impatient buyer.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend: strong bearish momentum following a large gap/down move (regular session -4.79% after prior collapse), indicating sellers still control price.
MACD: histogram at -0.19 (below zero) and negatively contracting—bearish trend persists, with only early signs of slowing downside momentum.
RSI_6: 9.075 (extremely oversold) — increases odds of a short-term reflex bounce, but does not confirm a durable bottom.
Moving averages: converging, consistent with post-crash compression/attempted stabilization rather than a confirmed reversal.
Levels: immediate resistance near S1 at 0.604 (now overhead resistance after breakdown); major pivot/overhead resistance ~1.326. Deeper support S2 ~0.158.
Pattern-based projection provided: modest upside probabilities (next day ~0.12%, next week ~2.66%, next month ~6.37%)—not compelling versus event risk.

Positive Catalysts

- Any clear, favorable FDA feedback that de-risks the Revita regulatory pathway could re-rate shares.
- Additional data / improved trial execution and larger sample size in future pivotal work (per BofA commentary) could rebuild confidence.
- Next scheduled catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-03-04 (after hours) may provide runway/cash burn and program clarity.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Major sentiment hit from the regulatory strategy shift request to FDA; market interpreted as increased uncertainty, triggering a ~65%+ one-day collapse.
- Six-month REMAIN-1 midpoint cohort data fell short of expectations (Morgan Stanley cites weight regain concerns), raising pivotal-study confidence risk.
- Multiple law-firm investigation headlines (securities law-related) add overhang and can keep pressure on sentiment.
- High likelihood of continued volatility and supply from trapped holders after the sharp breakdown.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: fell to 0 (down 100% YoY), reinforcing pre-commercial/biotech profile with no operating revenue base.
Profitability: Net income improved YoY to -$45.603M (less negative), but losses remain large.
EPS: improved YoY to -0.71, still meaningfully negative.
Gross margin: 0 (down 100% YoY), consistent with no revenue.
Overall: financials show ongoing cash burn dynamics; the investment case is driven primarily by regulatory/clinical outcomes rather than current fundamentals.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Clear negative reset in Street expectations in late Jan 2026:
- Morgan Stanley (2026-01-29): Downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight, PT cut to $2 from $8 on weaker-than-expected six-month outcomes and increased uncertainty.
- BofA (2026-01-30): Maintains Buy, but PT slashed to $2 from $5, citing imperfect data and lower sales forecasts pending clarity.
Earlier tone was more constructive (Canaccord PT raised to $8 on 2025-11-21; MS previously bullish with PT $8 on 2026-01-08), but the most recent actions show a sharp turn toward caution.
Wall Street pro/con view now:
- Pros: some belief remains that pivotal success is possible; potential upside if execution improves and FDA path becomes favorable.
- Cons: credibility and de-risking took a significant hit; near-term narrative dominated by regulatory uncertainty and mixed clinical read-through, leading to compressed targets and downgraded stance.

4 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast GUTS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GUTS is 7.25 USD with a low forecast of 5 USD and a high forecast of 8 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

4 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 0.400

Low

Averages

7.25

High

Current: 0.400

Low

Averages

7.25

High

BofA

Buy

downgrade

$5 -> $2

AI Analysis

2026-01-30

Reason

BofA

Price Target

$5 -> $2

AI Analysis

2026-01-30

downgrade

Buy

Reason

BofA lowered the firm's price target on Fractyl Health to $2 from $5 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after the company provided new, six-month randomized controlled data of its Revita procedure in weight maintenance post-discontinuation of a GLP1 therapy. The "data were not perfect," but the firm thinks the pivotal results should benefit from a much larger sample size and optimization of trial execution, says the analyst, who lowered the firm's sales forecast pending clarity on the profile strength based on additional data.

Morgan Stanley

Overweight -> Equal Weight

downgrade

$8 -> $2

2026-01-29

Reason

Morgan Stanley

Price Target

$8 -> $2

2026-01-29

downgrade

Overweight -> Equal Weight

Reason

Morgan Stanley downgraded Fractyl Health to Equal Weight from Overweight with a price target of $2, down from $8. In the randomized REMAIN-1 midpoint cohort at six months, Revita patients experienced 4.5% weight regain, which fell short of expectations and raises questions, the analyst tells investors. While the firm continues to believe success in the pivotal study is possible, it is taking a more cautious view and moving to the sidelines.

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GUTS Should I Buy

GUTS Should I Buy

Should You Buy Fractyl Health Inc (GUTS) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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