Buy now: Risk/reward is attractive with shares at ~18.42 vs. Street targets $21–$23 (roughly +14% to +25% upside) and supportive sentiment.
Bullish positioning: Options open interest is overwhelmingly call-skewed (very low OI put/call), consistent with bullish expectations into the next catalyst window.
Fundamentals support the move: Latest quarter shows strong YoY growth in revenue, EPS, and net income; this typically supports multiple expansion if sustained.
What could derail near-term: The stock is near resistance (18.60–18.86) and has elevated implied volatility ahead of earnings, so moves may be sharp—still, for an impatient buyer, the setup favors initiating now rather than waiting.
Trend/price context: Post-market 18.425, up +1.07% regular session; price is hovering just above the pivot ~18.17.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.062 (below zero) but negatively contracting → bearish momentum is fading and a turn is possible.
RSI: RSI(6) ~58 → neutral-to-slightly-bullish; not overbought.
Moving averages: Converging MAs → consolidation/coil; typically precedes a larger move.
Key levels:
Support: 18.17 (pivot) then 17.74 (S1)
Resistance: 18.60 (R1) then 18.86 (R2)
A clean push above 18.60 improves breakout odds; losing 18.17 increases pullback risk.
Pattern-based probability (provided): Model suggests modest upside next day/week (around +0.7%) but slightly negative 1-month expectation (about -0.28%)—consistent with a near-term tradeable bid but not a guaranteed multi-week trend.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Open interest put/call = 0.04 is extremely call-heavy → strongly bullish positioning.
Flow (today): Put/call volume = 0.49 (calls still lead, but less extreme than OI).
Activity: Volume is elevated vs. average (~22x the 30-day avg per provided metric), suggesting attention/speculation is rising.
Volatility: 30D IV ~61% and IV percentile ~90 → options are expensive and the market is pricing a bigger-than-usual move (commonly seen into catalysts like earnings).
Interpretation: Positioning leans bullish, but the high IV implies traders expect a sharp move; directionally, the skew favors upside.
Technical Summary
Sell
2
Buy
12
Positive Catalysts
Event-driven/news: Renewal/extension of the technical partnership with Scuderia Ferrari into the 2026 FIA regulations, plus development of a next-gen turbo system → positive brand/tech leadership signal.
Upcoming catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-19 (pre-market); if results/guide confirm demand durability, the stock can re-rate.
Analyst narrative tailwind: Recent notes highlight less BEV headwind and better visibility into turbo market share gains.
Options positioning: Extremely bullish OI skew can reinforce upside if price starts breaking above resistance (gamma/positioning effects).
Gross margin: 24.28%, down ~4.03% YoY (key watch item)
Takeaway: Growth is clearly positive (revenue/earnings acceleration), but the margin decline is the main fundamental blemish to monitor into the next earnings print.
JPMorgan (2025-12-17): Initiated Overweight, PT $23; thesis: BEV adoption slower than expected = less headwind; expects turbo growth and share gains.
Stifel (2025-12-16): Buy, PT raised to $21; expects 2026 volume growth tailwinds and continued pricing/cycle normalization.
BWS Financial (2025-12-12): Buy, PT raised to $22; argues extended ICE phase-out timelines reduce a major bear overhang.
Wall Street pro view (pros): Improving ICE/transition narrative, share-gain visibility, and supportive multi-firm targets well above current price.
Wall Street con view (cons): Ongoing margin pressure and the structural long-term transition away from ICE remains a background risk (even if timelines extend).
Wall Street analysts forecast GTX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GTX is 20 USD with a low forecast of 14 USD and a high forecast of 23 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast GTX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GTX is 20 USD with a low forecast of 14 USD and a high forecast of 23 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 18.240
Low
14
Averages
20
High
23
Current: 18.240
Low
14
Averages
20
High
23
JPMorgan
Overweight
initiated
$23
AI Analysis
2025-12-17
Reason
JPMorgan
Price Target
$23
AI Analysis
2025-12-17
initiated
Overweight
Reason
JPMorgan initiated coverage of Garrett Motion with an Overweight rating and $23 price target, which offers 36% upside. Battery electric vehicles are likely to grow much less quickly than earlier expected, representing a "materially less headwind" to Garrett Motion's core internal combustion turbocharging business, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm expects Garrett to grow its turbocharger business over the medium-term with high visibility into market share gains.
Stifel
Buy
maintain
$20 -> $21
2025-12-16
Reason
Stifel
Price Target
$20 -> $21
2025-12-16
maintain
Buy
Reason
Stifel raised the firm's price target on Garrett Motion to $21 from $20 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Growth in 2025 for diversified industrials has largely been driven by tariff related price increases, again demonstrating these companies have superior pricing power, with volumes generally flat to down modestly, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm expects volume growth in 2026 to be primarily driven by the absence of, or at least lower, levels of inventory destocking combined with carryover pricing leading to low to mid single-digit revenue growth in 2026.
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