Should I Buy GTN? GTN 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Gray Media Inc (GTN) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

4.350

1 Day change

0.69%

52 Week Range

6.300

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: there is no Intellectia buy signal, the technical setup is neutral/indecisive, and the next major catalyst (earnings on 2026-02-26) carries downside risk.
Price is sitting near the pivot (~~4.43) with nearby resistance (~~4.66); upside looks capped unless it cleanly breaks and holds above resistance.
Options positioning is roughly balanced (OI put-call ~0.92) and volume is extremely thin—this does not show strong bullish conviction.
Fundamentals recently weakened materially (2025/Q3 YoY declines and negative EPS), so any rally is more likely to be trading-driven than supported by improving financial momentum.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.0265) but contracting, implying bullish momentum is fading rather than accelerating.
RSI(6) ~49.5: neutral—no oversold bounce setup and no overbought momentum confirmation.
Moving averages: converging MAs typically signal consolidation/chop rather than a clean trend.
Key levels:
- Pivot: 4.434 (current area is essentially “decision zone”)
- Support: 4.21 then 4.072 (break below increases downside risk)
- Resistance: 4.657 then 4.795 (needs a decisive breakout to justify chasing)
Pattern-based odds provided: modest bullish bias (60% chance), but expected moves are small near-term (~2.5% next day / ~3.0% next week), consistent with a range-trade rather than a high-conviction breakout.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Open interest: Calls 3,269 vs Puts 3,015; OI put/call 0.92 = fairly balanced to slightly call-leaning (mildly constructive, not decisive).
Volume: only 3 contracts today and put volume 0 → sentiment inference from volume is unreliable due to extremely low participation.
Implied vol (30d) ~69.34 vs historical vol ~42.58: options are pricing elevated near-term uncertainty.
IV percentile ~2.39 (very low vs its own history) + IV rank ~18.99: despite being high vs realized, current IV is low relative to GTN’s past spikes—less sign of panic hedging right now.
Takeaway: options market is not screaming “bullish now”; it’s more neutral with low liquidity/participation today.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

and points to EBITDA upside/momentum into
- Potential longer-term narrative: Wells Fargo suggests retrans headwinds may stabilize in 2026+ and investors may focus on M&A/deleveraging paths.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

showed sharp YoY deterioration in revenue, margins, and profitability—weak operating momentum.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 749M, down -21.16% YoY (significant top-line contraction).
Net income: -23M, down -127.71% YoY (moved deeper into losses).
EPS: -0.24, down -127.91% YoY.
Gross margin: 17.22, down -43.60% YoY (margin compression is a key red flag).
Growth trend takeaway: the most recent quarter reflects weakening fundamentals rather than a stabilization phase.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent changes (2025-11-10):
- Wells Fargo: Equal Weight; price target raised to $5.50 from $5.00 (cautiously improving view; expects retrans to stabilize 2026+; highlights M&A/deleveraging as key equity value driver).
- Benchmark: Buy; price target raised to $10 from $9 (more bullish; cites revenue in-line at high end of guidance and >$12M EBITDA upside; sees momentum into 2026).
Wall Street pros view:
- Pros: potential stabilization narrative into 2026, operational steadiness per WF, and EBITDA upside/momentum per Benchmark.
- Cons: the more conservative Equal Weight stance suggests visibility and leverage/structural issues still cap conviction; near-term earnings risk remains.
Politicians/Influential figures: no recent congress trading data available in the last 90 days.

4 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast GTN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GTN is 7.25 USD with a low forecast of 5.5 USD and a high forecast of 10 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

3 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 4.320

Low

5.5

Averages

7.25

High

Current: 4.320

Low

5.5

Averages

7.25

High

Wells Fargo

Steven Cahall

Equal Weight

maintain

AI Analysis

2025-11-10

Reason

Wells Fargo

Steven Cahall

Price Target

AI Analysis

2025-11-10

maintain

Equal Weight

Reason

Wells Fargo analyst Steven Cahall raised the firm's price target on Gray Media to $5.50 from $5 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm notes net retrans has been an overhang to Gray Media, but Wells sees it stabilizing in 2026-plus. Overall, op trends are steady. The firm sees investors focusing primarily on larger-scale M&A opportunities as they're the strongest path to deleveraging and equity value creation.

Benchmark

Daniel Kurnos

Buy

maintain

$9 -> $10

2025-11-10

Reason

Benchmark

Daniel Kurnos

Price Target

$9 -> $10

2025-11-10

maintain

Buy

Reason

Benchmark analyst Daniel Kurnos raised the firm's price target on Gray Media to $10 from $9 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after the company posted a revenue number in line with consensus at the highest end of the prior guidance range along with over $12M of EBITDA upside. The firm thinks Gray is gaining some momentum into 2026, the analyst tells investors in a post-earnings note.

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GTN Should I Buy

GTN Should I Buy

Should You Buy Gray Media Inc (GTN) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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