Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: the primary trend is still bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) and Intellectia has no buy signal today.
The +7.66% regular-session pop looks more like a bounce within a broader downtrend than the start of a confirmed uptrend.
If you want exposure, the better setup is to wait for either (1) a clear technical trend reversal (price holding above ~68.4 and improving MACD) or (2) a fresh Intellectia (AI Stock Picker/SwingMax) buy signal—neither is present now.
Technical Analysis
Trend: Bearish overall (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), suggesting the longer-term downtrend is still in control.
Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.623) but contracting, which hints downside momentum is fading (early stabilization, not a confirmed reversal).
RSI (6): 52.62 (neutral) — no overbought/oversold edge after today’s jump.
Key levels: Pivot ~64.51 (price ~64.99 is only slightly above); resistance at R1 ~68.43 then R2 ~70.85; support at S1 ~60.60 then S2 ~58.18.
Pattern-based forward odds (provided): modestly positive bias over 1 week (+1.87%) but near-flat next day and next month—consistent with “chop/bounce” rather than a clean uptrend.
Positioning/Sentiment: Very call-heavy skew (OI put/call 0.21; volume put/call 0.17) implies bullish to speculative sentiment.
Volatility: Implied vol (30d) ~67.94 vs historical vol ~34.3 → options are pricing elevated uncertainty.
IV percentile: ~85.26 (high vs its own history), suggesting options are expensive and the market expects larger moves than normal.
Activity: Today’s options volume is low in absolute terms (7 contracts) but shows an outsized spike vs average (today vs 30d avg ~29.17%), so interpret sentiment with caution due to small sample size.
Technical Summary
Sell
8
Buy
2
Positive Catalysts
can re-rate the stock quickly if results/guide beat.
remain above the current ~65 area, implying upside if execution improves.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Technical backdrop remains bearish (stacked moving averages), increasing the odds that rallies get sold.
Elevated implied volatility indicates the market expects sharp moves; downside gaps around earnings are a meaningful risk.
Competitive pressure noted by analysts (particularly in TX home/auto) could continue causing revenue/retention friction for the next couple of quarters.
No supportive “event/news” tailwind in the past week (no fresh positive catalyst driving today’s move).
Net income: $7.91M, +4.62% YoY (profit growth, but slower than revenue).
EPS: $0.29, flat YoY (profitability per share not accelerating).
Takeaway: growth is healthy, but earnings leverage appears limited in the latest quarter—consistent with a stock that may need clearer margin/retention improvement to sustain a new uptrend.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent Street stance: Neutral / Market Perform bias.
2026-01-07 JPMorgan: Neutral; price target cut to $80 from $85 (reflecting a tougher P&C backdrop).
2025-11-25 BMO: Market Perform; price target cut to $79 from $110 (citing TX competition risks and potential for continued revenue misses/retention hiccups; sees a possible 2027 recovery setup).
Wall Street pros: targets still well above current price (~65), leaving upside if execution and retention stabilize.
Wall Street cons: multiple target cuts and cautious ratings signal limited conviction in near-term fundamentals; competitive/retention risks remain key overhangs.
Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available.
Institutional/insider trend: Hedge funds neutral (no significant trends last quarter); insiders neutral (no significant trends last month).
Wall Street analysts forecast GSHD stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GSHD is 91.7 USD with a low forecast of 43 USD and a high forecast of 140 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
11 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast GSHD stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GSHD is 91.7 USD with a low forecast of 43 USD and a high forecast of 140 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Buy
5 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 64.010
Low
43
Averages
91.7
High
140
Current: 64.010
Low
43
Averages
91.7
High
140
JPMorgan
Neutral
downgrade
$85 -> $80
AI Analysis
2026-01-07
Reason
JPMorgan
Price Target
$85 -> $80
AI Analysis
2026-01-07
downgrade
Neutral
Reason
JPMorgan lowered the firm's price target on Goosehead Insurance to $80 from $85 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the property and casualty insurance sector as part of its 2026 outlook. While fundamentals in the P&C sector "are getting more challenging," pricing, margin, and growth headwinds "seem better reflected in sentiment and valuation levels," the analyst tells investors in a research note.
BMO Capital
Market Perform
downgrade
$110 -> $79
2025-11-25
Reason
BMO Capital
Price Target
$110 -> $79
2025-11-25
downgrade
Market Perform
Reason
BMO Capital lowered the firm's price target on Goosehead Insurance to $79 from $110 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares. The firm believes that the increased competition in home/auto in Texas still presents a risk to Goosehead for at least another two quarters, and while the quote-to-issue "digital agent" launch could set up a potential hockey-stick-like recovery for 2027, continued revenue misses from elevated shopping levels and retention hiccups are possible, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
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