Options positioning looks call-heavy, but actual volume is extremely low, so sentiment read is weak/low-confidence.
Fundamentals (latest quarter 2025/Q3) show shrinking revenue and deeper losses; margin improvement alone isn’t enough to justify chasing an oversold bounce.
No near-term news catalysts and no notable hedge fund/insider accumulation signals in the provided data.
Technical Analysis
Trend/Momentum: Bearish. MACD histogram -0.0191 below zero and negatively expanding (downtrend pressure increasing).
RSI: RSI_6 at 11.067 = extremely oversold; this can precede a short bounce, but it is not a confirmation of a trend reversal.
Moving averages: Converging MAs suggests compression/indecision, but current momentum still points down.
Key levels: Pivot 1.377 (price 1.25 is below pivot = bearish bias). Near supports S1 1.266 and S2 1.198; resistance levels R1 1.488 and R2 1.556 overhead.
Pattern-based forward view (provided): ~40% chance of slight drift lower next day/week; modest +1.38% bias over the next month (not strong enough to override current bearish momentum).
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning: Open interest is heavily skewed to calls (call OI 10,041 vs put OI 757; OI put/call 0.08), typically a bullish tilt.
Activity: Today’s options volume is tiny (total volume 3; calls 2, puts 1), so the skew may not reflect strong real-time conviction.
Volatility: IV 30D ~151.95 vs historical vol ~39.03; IV percentile 83.67 = options pricing implies very large expected swings (high uncertainty/risk premium).
Flow intensity: Today’s volume vs 30D avg 1.23 (slightly elevated), but off a very small baseline; interpret cautiously.
Technical Summary
Sell
9
Buy
5
Positive Catalysts
increases odds of a reflex bounce, especially near the 1.20–1.27 support zone.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Bearish momentum is still active (MACD below zero and getting worse), so catching a falling knife risk remains high.
No news in the recent week: lack of catalysts makes it harder to justify an immediate reversal.
Very high implied volatility (~152%) signals the market expects large moves; without a clear catalyst, this often accompanies unstable price action.
Provided trading-trend signals: hedge funds neutral; insiders neutral (no “smart money” accumulation signal in the dataset).
No recent congress trading data available (no political/influential confirmation signal).
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 47.254M, down -5.50% YoY (top-line contraction).
Profitability: Net income -2.437M (down -78.69% YoY), EPS -0.04 (down -78.95% YoY) — losses worsening.
Margin: Gross margin 21.6%, up significantly YoY — a constructive sign, but not yet translating into earnings improvement.
Overall growth trend: Margin improvement is positive, but declining revenue plus worsening losses is a negative setup for a near-term “must-buy-now” decision.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
No analyst rating trend or price target change data was provided, so recent Street revisions cannot be confirmed.
Wall Street pros (based on the provided fundamentals): gross margin improvement suggests potential operational progress.
Wall Street cons (based on the provided fundamentals/price action): revenue is shrinking and losses are worsening, while the chart remains in a bearish momentum phase — typically limits near-term upside appetite.
Wall Street analysts forecast GRWG stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GRWG is 2 USD with a low forecast of 1.5 USD and a high forecast of 2.5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast GRWG stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GRWG is 2 USD with a low forecast of 1.5 USD and a high forecast of 2.5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 1.160
Low
1.5
Averages
2
High
2.5
Current: 1.160
Low
1.5
Averages
2
High
2.5
Lake Street
Buy
downgrade
$4
AI Analysis
2025-05-09
Reason
Lake Street
Price Target
$4
AI Analysis
2025-05-09
downgrade
Buy
Reason
Lake Street lowered the firm's price target on GrowGeneration to $2.50 from $4 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after the company reported first quarter results that were below the firm's expectations and withdrew its full-year 2025 guidance due to macro uncertainty.
