Should I Buy GRPN? GRPN 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Groupon Inc (GRPN) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Sell

Latest Price

13.290

1 Day change

5.48%

52 Week Range

43.080

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now: the primary trend is still bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) and momentum is deteriorating (MACD histogram negative and expanding lower).
Price is trading below/around near-term support (S1=13.471; post-market ~13.35), which increases downside risk toward S2=12.567 before a durable rebound sets up.
Oversold RSI (RSI_6 ~14.7) can spark a short bounce, but with no Intellectia buy signals today and no news catalyst, odds favor choppy/weak price action rather than a clean reversal.
With the next major catalyst being earnings (2026-03-02), the current setup does not favor an impatient “buy now” approach.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bearish structure with moving averages stacked negatively (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), indicating sustained downtrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.239 and weakening (below zero and negatively expanding) → downside momentum is still building.
Mean-reversion/oversold: RSI_6 at 14.736 signals extreme oversold conditions; a reflex bounce is possible, but not confirmed.
Levels: Pivot 14.934 (needs reclaim to improve structure). Resistance: 16.397 (R1), 17.301 (R2). Support: 13.471 (S1, currently being tested/broken), then 12.567 (S2).
Pattern-based forward view (from similar candlesticks): ~60% chance of only ~0.31% next day, ~-0.03% next week, but ~+8.02% next month—suggesting near-term weakness/indecision with a potential later rebound.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning: OI put/call at 0.82 suggests slightly more call open interest than puts (mildly bullish leaning), but not extreme.
Flow: Volume put/call at 0.93 is near-neutral (puts and calls both active); does not signal strong risk-on sentiment.
Volatility: 30D IV ~79.53 vs historical vol ~39.58 → options are pricing elevated uncertainty; IV percentile 63.75 indicates IV is relatively high versus its own history.
Activity: Today’s volume (558) is well below 5D/10D averages (1767/3121) → limited conviction in today’s options tape.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

and starts working back toward the pivot (14.934).
could re-rate the stock if profitability/forward guidance improves.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

increases probability of continuation lower toward S2 (12.567).
reflects high uncertainty; the market is pricing sizable moves, often seen around unstable trends.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $122.83M, up 7.29% YoY (return to top-line growth).
Profitability: Net income -$118.37M (down -949.89% YoY) and EPS -2.92 (down -1041.94% YoY) → growth is not translating into earnings; profitability trend is the key concern.
Gross margin: 91.05%, up 1.30% YoY (margin quality improved), but overwhelmed by operating/other costs given the large net loss.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent rating/target changes are mixed and volatile:
- 2026-01-09: Northland reiterates a bullish stance (Outperform) and names GRPN a 2026 Top Pick with a $42 target, emphasizing improved balance sheet and underappreciated return to growth.
- 2025-11-10: Goldman Sachs stays Sell and cuts target to $17 from $24, acknowledging initiatives/user growth but remaining skeptical on the growth vs margin tradeoff.
Wall Street pros (bull case): execution improving, growth returning, balance sheet improvement narrative, meaningful upside if a sustained turnaround takes hold.
Wall Street cons (bear case): profitability/earnings power remains the debate; large losses and uncertain margin trajectory keep skepticism high.

3 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast GRPN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GRPN is 35.33 USD with a low forecast of 17 USD and a high forecast of 47 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

2 Buy

0 Hold

1 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 12.600

Low

Averages

35.33

High

Current: 12.600

Low

Averages

35.33

High

Northland

analyst

Outperform

maintain

$42

AI Analysis

2026-01-09

Reason

Northland

analyst

Price Target

$42

AI Analysis

2026-01-09

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Northland named Groupon a 2026 Top Pick, citing what it the analyst calls "one of the most compelling risk-reward scenarios in our coverage universe." Recent results reflecting a return to growth, a "dramatically improved" balance sheet, and steady execution after missteps in past years have gone underappreciated by the Street, argues the analyst, who has an Outperform rating and $42 price target on shares.

Goldman Sachs

Sell

downgrade

$24 -> $17

2025-11-10

Reason

Goldman Sachs

Price Target

$24 -> $17

2025-11-10

downgrade

Sell

Reason

Goldman Sachs lowered the firm's price target on Groupon to $17 from $24 and keeps a Sell rating on the shares. Groupon's Q3 results highlighted user growth from optimized marketing, supply expansion focused on travel and experiences, and strategic initiatives like the Chicago playbook and upcoming brand campaigns, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Management continues balancing growth investments, margin trajectory, and capital allocation, the firm says.

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GRPN Should I Buy

GRPN Should I Buy

Should You Buy Groupon Inc (GRPN) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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