Should I Buy GROY? GROY 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Gold Royalty Corp (GROY) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

4.220

1 Day change

3.94%

52 Week Range

5.450

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

Should I buy Analysis is updated weekly. For real time "Should I Buy" analysis, please sign up to get free answers.

Not a good buy right now for an impatient trader: technical momentum is weakening (bearish MACD expansion) and near-term pattern stats skew slightly negative.
Price is sitting just above first support (~4.29). That can attract dip-buying, but there’s no Intellectia timing signal today to justify jumping in immediately.
Options positioning is bullish-leaning (low put/call), yet elevated IV suggests the market is pricing meaningful swings—good for traders, but not a clear directional edge without a catalyst.
With no news catalysts this week and mixed fundamentals (revenue up, losses persist), risk/reward favors waiting rather than buying immediately.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram -0.079 and negatively expanding => bearish momentum increasing.
RSI(6): 37.06 => approaching oversold but not a clear reversal signal yet.
Moving averages: converging => indecision/transition phase; not a confirmed uptrend resumption.
Key levels: Pivot 4.607 (price below pivot = weak); Support S1 4.286 then S2 4.088; Resistance R1 4.928 then R2 5.126.
Tape/price action: Regular session -4.29% followed by a small post-market bounce (+1.38%) looks more like a relief bounce than a confirmed reversal.
Quant pattern read: Similar-pattern stats imply ~80% chance of mild drift lower (-0.63% next day, -0.83% next week, -1.59% next month).
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals: Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: Put/Call ratios are low (OI 0.45; Volume 0.26) => positioning/flow skews bullish (more calls than puts).
Activity: Today’s volume 1,279 with very high vs 30D average (45.61) => unusual interest.
Open interest: 49,119 calls vs 21,923 puts; total OI 71,042, and today vs OI avg 30D is elevated (111.45) => active positioning.
Volatility: 30D IV 93.46 vs HV 52.05 => options are pricey; market expects big moves, which can amplify both upside and downside.
IV context: IV percentile 62.55 (moderately high relative to its own history) => not “cheap” optionality for new long premium buyers.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Analyst targets remain well above the current ~$4.35–$4.41 area, implying perceived upside if execution and gold pricing cooperate.
- Prior deal momentum (Pedra Branca stream/royalty acquisition referenced in analyst notes) supports a growth narrative for producing-asset exposure.
- Options market is call-heavy (bullish skew), which can support near-term bounces if buyers press.
- Macro backdrop (gold forecasts raised by analysts) can be supportive for a royalty name.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- No news catalysts in the past week; lacking an event-driven trigger for an immediate upside move.
- Bearish/weakening technicals (MACD negative and expanding; price below pivot) suggest downside pressure is still present.
- One notable sell-side concern: Canaccord downgraded to Hold citing valuation/premium to NAV after a large 2025 run.
- Pattern-based expectation indicates slight negative drift over the next day/week/month.
- No supportive “smart money” signal: hedge funds and insiders are reported neutral; no recent congress trading data available.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 4.148M, up +101.36% YoY => strong top-line growth.
Profitability: Net income -1.133M (down -133.10% YoY) and EPS -0.01 (down -150% YoY) => losses widened despite revenue growth.
Margins: Gross margin 70.44%, down 6.50% YoY => still high, but trending weaker.
Takeaway: Growth is improving, but bottom-line improvement hasn’t followed yet—reduces the case for an immediate momentum buy without a catalyst.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Price targets have generally been raised (Scotiabank $6 from $5; Maxim $7 from $5; earlier raises from BMO/National Bank), reflecting higher gold price assumptions and acquisition-driven growth.
Counterpoint: Canaccord downgraded to Hold (while raising PT to $5) primarily on valuation after a massive 2025 rally; indicates upside may be more limited near-term unless fundamentals/metal prices surprise.
Wall Street “pros” view: Accretive royalty/stream acquisition adding cash flow and gold exposure; leverage to stronger gold forecasts.
Wall Street “cons” view: Stock previously rerated sharply and may be rich vs NAV; profitability still negative; near-term technicals not supportive.

6 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast GROY stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GROY is 5.21 USD with a low forecast of 4.75 USD and a high forecast of 6.25 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

6 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 4.060

Low

4.75

Averages

5.21

High

6.25

Current: 4.060

Low

4.75

Averages

5.21

High

6.25

Scotiabank

Outperform

maintain

$5 -> $6

AI Analysis

2026-01-26

Reason

Scotiabank

Price Target

$5 -> $6

AI Analysis

2026-01-26

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Scotiabank raised the firm's price target on Gold Royalty to $6 from $5 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm is updating its price targets for Gold & Precious Minerals stocks under its coverage, the analyst tells investors. The firm has increased both gold and silver forecasts, supported by economic and geopolitical uncertainty as well as strong central bank buying.

Maxim

Tate Sullivan

Buy

maintain

$5 -> $7

2026-01-23

Reason

Maxim

Tate Sullivan

Price Target

$5 -> $7

2026-01-23

maintain

Buy

Reason

Maxim analyst Tate Sullivan raised the firm's price target on Gold Royalty to $7 from $5 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm is adjusting its model to reflect higher gold prices and gold royalty acquisitions, which indicate that the company has a positive outlook for both production growth and gold prices, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for GROY

Unlock Now

GROY Should I Buy

GROY Should I Buy

Should You Buy Gold Royalty Corp (GROY) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

People Also Watch