Buy now: GRND is extremely oversold and sitting right on key support (~10.33), which favors a near-term bounce setup for an impatient buyer.
Risk/reward is attractive at current levels: analyst targets ($20–$21) imply substantial upside vs ~$10.3, while the technical downside is more definable (below ~10.33 then ~9.82).
The primary reason to buy is a tactical rebound + medium-term upside supported by strong Q3 growth; the primary risk is that the broader downtrend can still overpower oversold conditions.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.16 and negatively expanding = downside momentum still active.
Oscillators: RSI_6 at ~1.88 signals extreme oversold conditions (capitulation-like), often preceding sharp mean-reversion bounces.
Key levels: Price ~10.35 is just above S1 10.329 (near-term “line in the sand”); next support S2 9.817. Resistance/pivot overhead at ~11.16, then ~11.99.
Pattern-based projection: Model suggests mild positive drift beyond 1 day (next week +0.97%, next month +3.38%), consistent with a rebound attempt from oversold.
Positioning/sentiment: Very low put/call ratios (OI and volume) indicate options flow is skewed bullish (call-heavy).
Volatility: 30D IV ~55.6 vs historical vol ~21.5 and IV percentile ~85.7 = options are pricing elevated uncertainty; sentiment is bullish, but the market is charging a premium for it.
Activity: Today’s options volume is elevated vs average (today vs 30D avg ~117%), suggesting fresh attention/positioning.
Technical Summary
Sell
9
Buy
5
Positive Catalysts
provides a defined catalyst window.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Technical damage: Strong bearish moving-average stack and worsening MACD suggest the downtrend is still in control despite oversold RSI.
Options pricing: Elevated IV (and high IV percentile) implies the market expects big moves; it also signals uncertainty.
No near-term news support: No recent news flow in the past week—bounce may rely purely on technical mean reversion.
Deal/proposal overhang: Any disappointment/uncertainty around shareholder proposals or strategic alternatives can keep pressure on sentiment.
Recent changes: Both Citizens JMP and Goldman Sachs lowered price targets (to $21 from $23; to $20 from $22) but maintained Outperform/Buy ratings.
Street “pros” view: Better-than-expected Q3; belief in a path to 20%+ growth in 2026–2027; Grindr app engagement viewed as outsized.
Street “cons” view: Near-term debate/overhang around user trajectory and ongoing focus on shareholder proposal developments.
Net take: Ratings remain bullish even after target trims; at ~$10.3, the lowered targets still imply large upside if execution continues.
Influential trading check: Hedge funds neutral; insiders neutral; no recent Congress trading data available.
Wall Street analysts forecast GRND stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GRND is 22 USD with a low forecast of 20 USD and a high forecast of 26 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast GRND stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GRND is 22 USD with a low forecast of 20 USD and a high forecast of 26 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 9.920
Low
20
Averages
22
High
26
Current: 9.920
Low
20
Averages
22
High
26
Citizens JMP
Outperform
maintain
$23 -> $21
AI Analysis
2025-11-10
Reason
Citizens JMP
Price Target
$23 -> $21
AI Analysis
2025-11-10
maintain
Outperform
Reason
Citizens JMP lowered the firm's price target on Grindr to $21 from $23 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Grindr reported better-than-expected Q3 results with revenue coming in 2% above consensus while EBITDA came in 11% above consensus, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citizens believes Grindr has a path to 20%+ growth in 2026 and 2027.
Goldman Sachs
Buy
downgrade
$22 -> $20
2025-11-07
Reason
Goldman Sachs
Price Target
$22 -> $20
2025-11-07
downgrade
Buy
Reason
Goldman Sachs lowered the firm's price target on Grindr to $20 from $22 but keeps a Buy rating on the shares after its Q3 results. Investors remain focused on developments surrounding the non-binding proposal submitted by Zage and Lu, but the management also noted that the Grindr team remains focused on executing against the broader addressable market opportunity through delivering a product that drives deeper user engagement, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm adds that while near-term debates will likely remain around user trajectory and any eventual resolution of the shareholder proposals, Goldman also sees the Grindr app as having outsized levels of engagement.
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