Should I Buy GRAL? GRAL 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Grail Inc (GRAL) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

100.070

1 Day change

6.39%

52 Week Range

118.840

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now: price action is weak (regular session -6.16%) and momentum indicators are still bearish.
Current price (~98.8–99.6) is sitting just above key support (S1 ~97.76); that’s a fragile spot to initiate without a confirmed rebound.
Strong fundamental/news catalysts exist (FDA module submission + distribution/adoption boost via Hims & Hers), but the tape is not yet confirming.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock today.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.707) and negatively expanding, signaling bearish momentum is still building rather than fading.
RSI: RSI(6) ~42.3 (neutral-to-weak), consistent with a stock that’s soft but not deeply oversold.
Moving averages: Converging MAs suggest a potential transition phase, but not a confirmed uptrend.
Key levels: Support S1 ~97.76 (very close to current), then S2 ~92.39; resistance overhead at Pivot ~106.45, then R1 ~115.13.
Near-term pattern odds (model based on similar candles): modest positive bias (next day +1.26% / next week +1.1% / next month +5.35%), but this is counter to the currently bearish MACD.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/Sentiment: Open interest put/call at 0.56 implies call-heavy positioning (more bullish than bearish).
Flow: Volume put/call at 0.89 is closer to balanced (slightly more calls than puts), not extreme.
Volatility: 30D IV ~84.35 vs HV ~80.99 (IV slightly above realized).
IV percentile/rank: IV percentile ~12.75 and IV rank ~13.39 suggest IV is low versus its own history (options relatively “cheap” vs recent months).
Activity: Today’s options volume (264) is far below the 5D/10D averages (~~1612/~~1847), implying limited fresh conviction today.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- FDA progress: Submitted the final module to the FDA for Galleri MCED test, supported by PATHFINDER 2 and NHS-Galleri trial data (clear regulatory milestone catalyst).
- Distribution/adoption catalyst: Hims & Hers launched Galleri access with promotional discounting, potentially expanding consumer reach and test adoption.
- Analyst support: Multiple upward price target revisions and Buy ratings, reflecting strengthening Street conviction in the long-term MCED opportunity.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Price action risk: Sharp regular-session drop (-6.16%) with bearish MACD suggests sellers still control the near-term trend.
- Commercial/regulatory uncertainty: MCED reimbursement and approval pathways remain meaningful swing factors (even bullish analysts highlight these unknowns).
- Profitability quality: Negative gross margin and deepening losses imply the business model is still scaling and not yet operating efficiently.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 36.19M, +26.32% YoY (solid top-line growth).
Net income: -88.98M (loss widened; net income down -29.21% YoY).
EPS: -2.46, down -37.56% YoY (worsening per-share loss).
Gross margin: -37.94% (deteriorated -51.11% YoY), indicating high cost structure relative to current revenue scale.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Ratings/targets have moved more positive, with multiple price target hikes and a key upgrade.
Guggenheim: Upgraded to Buy (from Neutral) and later raised PT to $130 (from $100), showing increasing confidence tied to sector updates and company progress.
Canaccord: Maintains Buy and raised PT to $105 (from $85) on adoption/reimbursement progress narrative.
Morgan Stanley: Equal Weight but raised PT to $85 (from $38), acknowledging long-term opportunity while emphasizing technology/reimbursement risk.
Wall Street pros vs cons:
- Pros: First-mover/leading commercial MCED (Galleri), growing clinical data moat, expanding adoption pathways.
- Cons: Reimbursement/regulatory pathway uncertainty and still-weak unit economics (negative gross margin, widening losses).

3 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast GRAL stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GRAL is 60.86 USD with a low forecast of 38 USD and a high forecast of 83.71 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

2 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 94.060

Low

Averages

60.86

High

83.71

Current: 94.060

Low

Averages

60.86

High

83.71

Guggenheim

Buy

upgrade

$100 -> $130

AI Analysis

2026-01-26

Reason

Guggenheim

Price Target

$100 -> $130

AI Analysis

2026-01-26

upgrade

Buy

Reason

Guggenheim raised the firm's price target on Grail to $130 from $100 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm adjusted models, forecasts and targets for a number of its Diagnostics and Life Sciences Tools covered companies to reflect recent updates and selected pre-announcements of preliminary results last week.

Canaccord

Kyle Mikson

Buy

maintain

$85 -> $105

2025-11-17

Reason

Canaccord

Kyle Mikson

Price Target

$85 -> $105

2025-11-17

maintain

Buy

Reason

Canaccord analyst Kyle Mikson raised the firm's price target on Grail to $105 from $85 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm target increase is driven by significant progress/plans to expand adoption levels (and reimbursement) for the Galleri multi-cancer early detection (MCED) test.

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GRAL Should I Buy

GRAL Should I Buy

Should You Buy Grail Inc (GRAL) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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