Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: the stock is in a confirmed downtrend (bearish MAs, weakening MACD) and is trading below near-term support (~4.19), so downside follow-through risk remains.
A short-term bounce is possible because RSI is deeply oversold (RSI_6 ~18.7) and options positioning is call-heavy, but there is no Intellectia buy signal and no fresh catalyst/news to reliably time an entry.
If already holding, this is a “hold/monitor” into the next support zone (~3.97) and ahead of earnings (2026-03-04). If looking to initiate, the setup is not attractive enough to call a buy today.
Technical Analysis
Trend: Bearish. Moving averages are stacked negatively (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), indicating a sustained downtrend.
Momentum: Bearish. MACD histogram is negative (-0.0158) and negatively expanding, suggesting downside momentum is still building.
Oscillator: Very oversold. RSI_6 at ~18.66 implies a reflex bounce is possible, but oversold can persist in downtrends.
Key levels: Current ~4.14 (post-market 4.15) is below S1 ~4.193; next support S2 ~3.971. Overhead resistance/pivot ~4.552, then R1 ~4.911.
Price action context: Regular session fell -2.12% while SP500 was up, signaling relative weakness.
Pattern-based odds (given): Next day ~40% chance to -0.16%; next month bias -1.63% (bearish drift).
Positioning/Sentiment: Put-call ratios (OI 0.23, volume 0.4) are call-heavy, typically read as bullish/“risk-on” sentiment.
Volatility: Implied vol 30D ~81.8% vs historical vol ~49.9% (IV rich). Options are pricing large moves; buying options outright is comparatively expensive.
Activity: Today’s volume is low in absolute terms (14 contracts), but vs 30D average it’s elevated (2.72x). Total OI ~14,372 with calls dominating (11,650 calls vs 2,722 puts).
Takeaway: Options market leans bullish, but elevated IV suggests the market is also pricing meaningful uncertainty.
Technical Summary
Sell
9
Buy
3
Positive Catalysts
Deeply oversold RSI can drive a short-term mean-reversion bounce.
Insiders are buying (buying amount up ~418% over the last month), a supportive signal versus current price weakness.
Upcoming earnings: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-03-04 (pre-market) could act as a volatility catalyst if results/guide surprise positively.
Revenue growth was very strong in the latest reported quarter (2025/Q3).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
with next support ~3.
Recent analyst sentiment turned more cautious: downgrade to Market Perform and a major price target cut (details below).
Financial Performance
Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $223.585M, up +122.41% YoY (strong top-line growth).
Profitability: Net income -$1.93M (worse YoY by -118.16%); EPS -$0.01 (worse YoY by -112.50%).
Margins: Gross margin 38.35%, down -38.12% YoY (meaningful compression).
Read-through: Growth is strong, but the earnings/margin trend is negative, which often limits near-term multiple expansion and supports the bearish analyst narrative around a “low-growth/transition” period.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Trend: Ratings/targets have moved more negative recently.
2025-12-09: William Blair downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform, citing Starlink competition, elevated net debt, and pressure on Air-to-Ground net additions during the Classic-to-AVANCE migration.
2026-01-16: Morgan Stanley cut price target to $8 from $15 and maintained Equal Weight, framing 2026 as a low-growth year amid product transitions and uncertainty around “Direct-to-Device.”
Wall Street pros (bull case): Potential for execution on transitions, insider buying, and optionality around connectivity demand.
Wall Street cons (bear case): Competitive threats (Starlink), leverage/net debt concerns, and near-term growth/margin headwinds—consistent with recent downgrades/target cuts.
Politicians/Congress: No recent congress trading data available in the last 90 days.
Wall Street analysts forecast GOGO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GOGO is 12 USD with a low forecast of 11 USD and a high forecast of 13 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast GOGO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GOGO is 12 USD with a low forecast of 11 USD and a high forecast of 13 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 3.920
Low
11
Averages
12
High
13
Current: 3.920
Low
11
Averages
12
High
13
Morgan Stanley
Equal Weight
downgrade
$15 -> $8
AI Analysis
2026-01-16
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$15 -> $8
AI Analysis
2026-01-16
downgrade
Equal Weight
Reason
Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on Gogo to $8 from $15 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. In the Services vertical of Space Technology, the firm sees debate centering on how "Direct-to-Device" takes further shape in 2026, the analyst tells investors. The firm is lowering its Gogo target as it rolls its valuation forward and revisits model assumptions into 2026, which it expects to be "a low-growth year" amid multiple product transitions.
William Blair
Louie DiPalma
Outperform -> Market Perform
downgrade
2025-12-09
Reason
William Blair
Louie DiPalma
Price Target
2025-12-09
downgrade
Outperform -> Market Perform
Reason
William Blair analyst Louie DiPalma downgraded Gogo to Market Perform from Outperform.
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