Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: the stock is already pushing into near-term resistance (around $24.83–$25.50) after a sharp post-earnings move, leaving limited immediate upside vs recently reduced Street targets.
Momentum is improving (MACD positive, price strength), but short-term conditions look stretched (RSI-6 ~69) and risk/reward is less attractive at this level.
Positioning/sentiment from options is bullish (very low put/call ratios), but without a proprietary entry signal, the cleaner setup is typically after a pullback or a confirmed break/hold above $25.50.
Technical Analysis
Price/Trend: Strong near-term upswing (regular session +3.85%; post-market ~$24.86), suggesting buyers stepped in after earnings.
MACD: Histogram positive (0.0539) and expanding → bullish momentum building.
RSI: RSI_6 at 69.13 → near overbought/“hot” short-term conditions, often associated with reduced immediate upside.
Moving Averages: Converging MAs → coiling/transition phase; breakouts can follow, but direction confirmation matters.
Pattern-based odds (provided): ~60% chance of modest gains next day/week; larger 1-month projection is positive, but the current entry is near resistance.
Activity: Total volume 46 contracts; today vs 30D avg volume ~97.9% → roughly normal activity (not a major “unusual volume” event).
Volatility: 30D IV 33.94 vs historical vol 25.28 → options are pricing elevated near-term moves; IV percentile ~59 suggests mid-to-higher relative IV, not extreme.
Interpretation: Options market is leaning bullish, but the stock is also pricing in more movement than usual, which often coincides with post-event repositioning.
Technical Summary
Sell
6
Buy
8
Positive Catalysts
and management guided 2026 revenue to $2.6B–$2.7B (supportive outlook).
No notable negative signal from hedge funds/insiders in the provided trends (both “Neutral”).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Q4 revenue missed estimates (reported ~$644.4M vs higher consensus), and investor reaction described as “cool” by at least one firm.
Multiple price target cuts clustered on 2026-02-02 (Baird, UBS, B. Riley) → indicates tempered near-term expectations.
Current price is already pressing resistance (R1/R2 zone), making near-term upside less compelling for an immediate entry.
No supportive “politician/influential buyer” catalyst identified; and no congress trading data available in the last 90 days.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4
Revenue: $644.4M, +18.97% YoY (strong top-line growth, though it missed consensus per news summary).
Net income: $93.0M, +7.50% YoY (profit growth positive but slower than revenue).
Takeaway: Fundamentals are trending positively YoY, but the “miss vs expectations + cautious tone” is what likely drove the muted analyst/market response.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend (2026-02-02): Analysts broadly stayed Neutral-to-Buy, but price targets were cut across the board:
Baird: PT cut to $25 (from $26), Neutral
UBS: PT cut to $25 (from $26), Neutral
B. Riley: PT cut to $28 (from $32), Buy
Wall Street pros (bull case): best-in-class execution; longer-term upside from emerging tech applications (e.g., dimmable glass) with potential acceleration later in the decade.
Wall Street cons (bear/near-term case): revenue miss and a “transition-year” dynamic in 2026, leading to more conservative multiples and restrained near-term upside.
Net: The Street is not aggressively bearish, but the coordinated PT cuts suggest limited enthusiasm for chasing strength at ~$24.9 right now.
Wall Street analysts forecast GNTX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GNTX is 29.25 USD with a low forecast of 27 USD and a high forecast of 32 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast GNTX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GNTX is 29.25 USD with a low forecast of 27 USD and a high forecast of 32 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 24.480
Low
27
Averages
29.25
High
32
Current: 24.480
Low
27
Averages
29.25
High
32
JPMorgan
Ryan Brinkman
Neutral
downgrade
$29 -> $28
AI Analysis
2026-02-05
New
Reason
JPMorgan
Ryan Brinkman
Price Target
$29 -> $28
AI Analysis
2026-02-05
New
downgrade
Neutral
Reason
JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman lowered the firm's price target on Gentex to $28 from $29 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm trimmed estimates post the Q4 report.
Baird
Neutral
downgrade
$26 -> $25
2026-02-02
Reason
Baird
Price Target
$26 -> $25
2026-02-02
downgrade
Neutral
Reason
Baird lowered the firm's price target on Gentex to $25 from $26 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm updated its model following inline results which were met with cool investor sentiment.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for GNTX
