Should I Buy GGB? GGB 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Gerdau SA (GGB) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

4.220

1 Day change

0.96%

52 Week Range

4.660

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: price action is weak near support and short-term pattern stats skew negative.
Trend is conflicted (bullish long/medium MAs, but bearish MACD momentum), and the stock is still below the key pivot (4.427).
Options positioning is extremely call-heavy (bullish sentiment), but implied volatility is very elevated vs realized, suggesting heightened uncertainty into earnings (2026-02-23).
With no proprietary buy signals (AI Stock Picker/SwingMax) and deteriorating profitability trends (latest quarter), the risk/reward is not attractive right now.

Technical Analysis

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.
Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram -0.0177 (below 0 and expanding negatively) = bearish momentum building.
RSI: RSI_6 at 45.6 = neutral, no oversold bounce signal.
Moving averages: SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200 = constructive broader structure, but current momentum is still fading.
Key levels: Pivot 4.427 (price below pivot is bearish bias). Support S1 4.263 then S2 4.162; Resistance R1 4.592 then R2 4.693.
Near-term bias (pattern stats): 70% chance of downside with estimates of -1.97% (next day), -1.79% (next week), -1.68% (next month) based on similar candlestick patterns.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning: Put/Call open interest ratio 0.04 (very call-heavy) and put volume = 0 today → bullish/optimistic skew.
Activity: Today’s volume 62 with volume vs 30D avg at 32.12 (spike off a low base); today’s open interest 11,702 and today vs OI avg 113.87 (elevated engagement).
Volatility: 30D IV 86.29 vs historical vol 29.38 → options are pricing large moves / elevated uncertainty, consistent with upcoming earnings.
Interpretation: Sentiment is bullish, but the high IV means the market expects turbulence; this does not confirm a clean “buy now” setup in the underlying.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

on 2026-02-23 after hours could act as a catalyst if margins/profitability rebound vs recent weakness.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

and is leaning on nearby support (S1 4.263), increasing risk of a breakdown toward S2 4.
- No supportive news flow in the last week (no fresh positive catalyst).

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3
Revenue: 3.30B, +5.35% YoY (top-line growth positive).
Net income: 198.1M, -18.45% YoY (profitability worsening).
EPS: 0.10, -16.67% YoY (earnings power declined).
Gross margin: 11.91, -19.69% YoY (margin compression is the key negative trend).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent analyst trend is mixed and slightly negative at the margin:
- 2026-01-22: BTG Pactual downgraded to Neutral from Buy, PT R$27 (more cautious stance).
- 2025-12-15: UBS kept Buy and raised PT to $4.60 from $4 (constructive view).
Wall Street pros: revenue growth, potential cyclicality upside, one major firm maintains Buy with higher PT.
Wall Street cons: a fresh downgrade signals softer confidence; profitability/margins have been trending down, which can limit upside even if revenue grows.
Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available; no politician activity provided.

Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast GGB stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GGB is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

Buy

Hold

Sell

Current: 4.180

Low

Averages

High

Current: 4.180

Low

Averages

High

BTG Pactual

Buy -> Neutral

downgrade

R$27

AI Analysis

2026-01-22

Reason

BTG Pactual

Price Target

R$27

AI Analysis

2026-01-22

downgrade

Buy -> Neutral

Reason

BTG Pactual downgraded Gerdau to Neutral from Buy with a R$27 price target.

UBS

Buy

maintain

2025-12-15

Reason

UBS

Price Target

2025-12-15

maintain

Buy

Reason

UBS raised the firm's price target on Gerdau to $4.60 from $4 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.

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GGB Should I Buy

GGB Should I Buy

Should You Buy Gerdau SA (GGB) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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