Should I Buy GFL? GFL 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy GFL Environmental Inc (GFL) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

42.520

1 Day change

0.69%

52 Week Range

52.000

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now: the trend setup is still bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5 and MACD momentum weakening), so odds favor more chop/down before a clean rebound.
If you’re impatient and must act, the only “acceptable” entry is a small starter near the S1 support (~~42.40) and add only after price reclaims the pivot (~~43.63); otherwise, don’t chase.
Earnings (QDEC 2025) on 2026-02-11 after hours is the next major catalyst; directionality is uncertain, so the best buy timing is after technical confirmation.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock today.

Technical Analysis

Immediate trend: bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), suggesting rallies may get sold until structure improves.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.0575 and negatively expanding → downside momentum is still building, not stabilizing yet.
RSI_6: 31.21 → near oversold/washed-out conditions, which can support a short-term bounce, but it’s not a confirmed reversal by itself.
Key levels: Pivot 43.625 (needs reclaim for bullish shift); Support 42.399 (S1) then 41.642 (S2); Resistance 44.852 (R1) then 45.609 (R2).
Pattern-based forward look (similar candlesticks): modest edge for a bounce over the next week, but not strong enough to override the current downtrend.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning: Put/Call OI = 0.14 → call open interest heavily outweighs puts (bullish skew in positioning).
Activity: Put/Call volume = 0.0 with only 1 contract traded today → the “bullish” volume read is not very informative due to extremely low flow.
Volatility: IV (30D) 37.63 vs historical vol 20.32 → options imply elevated move expectations.
IV percentile 81.67 (high) → options are priced rich versus the past year’s distribution, consistent with a catalyst window (earnings soon).
Total OI today 992; volume vs 30D avg 2.78x but from a very small base.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Upcoming QDEC 2025 earnings (2026-02-11 AH) could reset sentiment if results/guide confirm pricing power and margin trajectory.
- Analysts broadly constructive (multiple Buys/Overweights, Scotiabank names it a top pick), implying supportive institutional narrative.
- Options open-interest skew is call-heavy, suggesting market participants are positioned more for upside than downside.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Technicals remain decisively bearish (moving-average stack + worsening MACD), so the path of least resistance is still down until price reclaims the pivot (~43.63).
- No supportive news flow in the past week to interrupt the downtrend.
- Elevated implied volatility indicates the market is pricing a larger near-term move, making timing less forgiving if the stock doesn’t rebound quickly.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue $1.694B, +9.01% YoY → steady top-line growth.
Net income $102.5M, +13.89% YoY → profitability improving faster than revenue.
EPS $0.28, +21.74% YoY → strong per-share growth.
Gross margin 21.85%, +14.40% YoY → operating leverage/pricing and mix improvements are showing up.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent rating trend: mostly positive bias (Buy/Outperform/Overweight), with a few Neutral voices focused on execution/FCF visibility.
Price targets: generally clustered in the mid-to-high $50s from Citi/Scotiabank/UBS (recent trims of $1–$2), implying sizable upside from ~42; Goldman initiated Neutral $50; Wells Fargo/Barclays are more aggressive (higher targets in CAD).
Wall Street pros: pricing ahead of inflation, organic growth + M&A runway, above-average earnings growth narrative.
Wall Street cons: “execution story” framing and the need for clearer free-cash-flow visibility; some post-earnings model/target trims indicate expectations management even among bulls.
Influential trading check: Hedge funds neutral, insiders neutral, and no recent Congress trading data provided.

15 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast GFL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GFL is 55.3 USD with a low forecast of 34.03 USD and a high forecast of 64.06 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

11 Buy

4 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 42.230

Low

34.03

Averages

55.3

High

64.06

Current: 42.230

Low

34.03

Averages

55.3

High

64.06

Scotiabank

Konark Gupta

Outperform

maintain

$58 -> $57

AI Analysis

2026-01-21

Reason

Scotiabank

Konark Gupta

Price Target

$58 -> $57

AI Analysis

2026-01-21

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Scotiabank analyst Konark Gupta lowered the firm's price target on GFL Environmental to $57 from $58 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm is updating its price targets for Transportation & Industrials stocks under its coverage, the analyst tells investors. The firm currently sees an upside risk to market expectations for defense companies and a downside risk for freight carriers. Scotiabank names GFL Environmental as one of its top picks for the year.

Citi

Buy

maintain

$58 -> $56

2026-01-16

Reason

Citi

Price Target

$58 -> $56

2026-01-16

maintain

Buy

Reason

Citi lowered the firm's price target on GFL Environmental to $56 from $58 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the waste services group as part of a Q4 preview. It trimmed estimates but rolled forward valuations to 2027 numbers. The analyst's top pick is WM.

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GFL Should I Buy

GFL Should I Buy

Should You Buy GFL Environmental Inc (GFL) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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