Should I Buy GFF? GFF 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Griffon Corp (GFF) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

94.840

1 Day change

5.88%

52 Week Range

95.340

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Buy now: Trend is bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) and price is holding above the key pivot (~83.12), with options positioning skewed bullish.
Near-term setup: Price (84.73 post-market, +2.59%) is pressing into resistance (R1 ~85.28). A push/hold above ~85.3 improves odds of continuation toward ~86.6 and then the Street’s ~$92 target area.
Event catalyst: Earnings on 2026-02-11 pre-market is the primary near-term driver; sentiment into the print is constructive given the company’s strong beat history.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Primary trend: Bullish structure with moving averages stacked positively (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) → supports a buy-the-trend stance.
Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.238) but negatively contracting → downside momentum is fading (often seen before trend continuation).
RSI: RSI_6 at 68.75 (upper-neutral/near overbought) → strength is present; upside can continue but near-term pullbacks are possible.
Key levels:
- Pivot/support: 83.12 (then S1 80.96)
- Resistance: 85.28 (R1) then 86.61 (R2)
Pattern-based forward bias (similar candlestick analogs): +0.86% next day, +2.73% next week, -3.01% next month → short-term tailwind, but momentum may cool after the near-term move.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/Sentiment: Open Interest Put/Call 0.25 is notably call-heavy → bullish bias.
Volume: Put/Call volume 0.5 with very small total volume (3 contracts) → directional read is bullish but based on light flow.
Volatility: IV (30d) 39.88 vs historical vol 28.7 → options are pricing elevated near-term movement (consistent with upcoming earnings).
IV context: IV percentile 53.39 (mid-range), IV rank 9.81 (low vs its own recent range) → not extreme, but still elevated vs realized volatility.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Upcoming earnings (2026-02-11 pre-market): company has beaten EPS estimates ~88% of the time over the last two years.
- Strategic targets: goal of $2.5B revenue and $580M–$600M EBITDA by 2026 supports a longer runway narrative.
- Analyst support: Stephens reiterates Overweight and raised PT to $92; commentary highlights strong free cash flow and progress toward multi-year FCF goals.
- Trading flows: Hedge funds and insiders are neutral (no recent selling pressure signal).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Estimate revisions skew negative (last 3 months): EPS revisions 2 up / 4 down, revenue revisions 1 up / 4 down → expectations have softened into the print.
- Near resistance: Price is just below R1 ~85.28; failure to clear can trigger near-term mean reversion.
- Recent profitability decline (latest quarter): Net income and EPS were down materially YoY, which can cap multiple expansion if it persists.
- No politician/influential buying signal: No recent congress trading data available to reinforce the bull case.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q4
- Revenue: $662.182M, +0.38% YoY (modest growth)
- Net income: $43.636M, -30.17% YoY (profit compression)
- EPS: 0.95, -26.36% YoY
- Gross margin: 41.72%, +1.73% YoY (positive operational signal)
Read-through: Sales are stable and margins improved, but earnings declined—next catalyst is whether upcoming results/guide show re-acceleration.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent Street action: (2025-11-24) Stephens raised PT to $92 from $90 and maintained Overweight.
Pros (Wall St. bull view): strong free cash flow narrative; progress toward multi-year cumulative FCF goals; upside to PT if execution continues.
Cons (Wall St. bear view): FY26 guidance previously missed some expectations; recent estimate revisions trend downward into earnings, implying some skepticism.
Net: Analyst tone is constructive with a higher target, supporting a buy bias at current levels ahead of the catalyst.

1 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast GFF stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GFF is 92 USD with a low forecast of 92 USD and a high forecast of 92 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 89.570

Low

Averages

High

Current: 89.570

Low

Averages

High

Baird

NULL -> Outperform

maintain

$100 -> $108

AI Analysis

2026-02-06

New

Reason

Baird

Price Target

$100 -> $108

AI Analysis

2026-02-06

New

maintain

NULL -> Outperform

Reason

Baird raised the firm's price target on Griffon to $108 from $100 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm updated its model following Q1 results as the company appears to be on a path to becoming a pure play.

Stephens

NULL

Overweight

maintain

$90 -> $92

2025-11-24

Reason

Stephens

Price Target

$90 -> $92

2025-11-24

maintain

NULL

Overweight

Reason

Stephens raised the firm's price target on Griffon to $92 from $90 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. FY26 guidance missed the firm's estimates, but free cash flow was strong in FY25 and the company is "well on its way" to achieving its goals of generating cumulative FY25-FY27 FCF generation of $1B, the analyst tells investors.

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GFF Should I Buy

GFF Should I Buy

Should You Buy Griffon Corp (GFF) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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