Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: momentum is still bearish (MACD negative and expanding) and price is below the key pivot (1.999).
The stock is sitting just above near-term support (S1=1.816); buying here risks a quick breakdown toward S2=1.702 before any sustainable rebound.
Bullish options positioning and a supportive analyst view exist, but without an Intellectia buy signal and with weak technicals, the immediate risk/reward is not attractive for a “buy now” decision.
Technical Analysis
Trend/momentum: MACD histogram is below zero (-0.0172) and negatively expanding → bearish momentum is strengthening.
RSI: RSI(6)=27.9 (effectively oversold/washed-out), which can support a bounce, but oversold alone is not a buy trigger while MACD is worsening.
Moving averages: converging MAs suggest basing behavior, but no clear bullish crossover confirmation.
Key levels: Price ~1.83–1.84 is below Pivot 1.999. Immediate support at S1=1.816; if that fails, next support S2=1.702. Upside levels to reclaim are R1=2.182 then R2=2.296.
Pattern-based projection provided: similar-candlestick stats imply modest upside bias (next day +1.94%, next week +2.31%, next month +6.06%), but this conflicts with currently deteriorating MACD momentum—so probability of chop/down first is meaningful.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning: Open-interest put/call ratio at 0.20 indicates call-heavy positioning (bullish sentiment/positioning).
Flow: Option volume put/call ratio at 0.66 is also call-leaning; total volume (2004) is elevated vs 30-day average (~143%), signaling heightened attention.
Volatility: IV30 ~83.98 vs HV ~50.35 → options are pricing large moves; IV percentile ~32 suggests IV is not at extremes versus its own history (not “maxed out”).
Net read: Options market looks bullish/active, but this is sentiment/positioning—not confirmation that price has turned up yet.
Technical Summary
Sell
6
Buy
8
Positive Catalysts
with Outperform and $3 PT, highlighting a “transformed” EBITDA profile post low-carbon ethanol assets acquisition and potential 2026 SAF-project news.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Technical pressure: Bearish MACD expansion suggests downside momentum is still building; price remains below pivot resistance (1.999).
Near support risk: Price is hovering close to S1 (1.816); a break could accelerate downside toward S2 (1.702).
No proprietary timing edge: Intellectia signals show no AI Stock Picker buy and no SwingMax entry, reducing confidence in a “buy now” timing call.
Ownership/trading backdrop: Hedge funds and insiders are neutral (no supportive accumulation trend indicated).
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $42.71M, up +2073.54% YoY (strong top-line jump, consistent with a step-change from asset acquisition/scale effects).
Profitability: Net income was -$7.954M (still loss-making); EPS -$0.03.
Margins: Gross margin reported at 29.38 with a large negative YoY change in the snapshot, implying margin pressure/volatility despite revenue growth.
Overall read: Big revenue growth, but earnings and margin profile still not consistently healthy—fundamentals don’t yet “confirm” a clean turnaround for an immediate buy.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Most recent update: (2025-12-31) Northland calls Gevo a Top Pick for 2026; rating Outperform; price target $3.
Rationale cited: Low-carbon ethanol assets acquisition (Q1 2025) shifting GEVO toward adjusted EBITDA generation and a path to >$100M adjusted EBITDA; potential positive SAF-related news in 2026.
Wall Street-style pros: clear upside narrative + defined PT well above current price (~1.83–1.84).
Wall Street-style cons: timing uncertainty (catalysts framed for 2026) and current financial/margin inconsistency; the stock’s chart does not yet show a confirmed uptrend.
Influential/political trading check: No recent congress trading data available (no evidence of notable political buying/selling in the provided data).
Wall Street analysts forecast GEVO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GEVO is 8.5 USD with a low forecast of 3 USD and a high forecast of 14 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast GEVO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GEVO is 8.5 USD with a low forecast of 3 USD and a high forecast of 14 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 1.720
Low
3
Averages
8.5
High
14
Current: 1.720
Low
3
Averages
8.5
High
14
Northland
Outperform
maintain
$3
AI Analysis
2025-12-31
Reason
Northland
Price Target
$3
AI Analysis
2025-12-31
maintain
Outperform
Reason
Northland says Gevo is a Top Pick for 2026 as the firm thinks it is underappreciated for the meaningful change in financial profile and outlook. The acquisition of its low-carbon ethanol assets in Q1 2025 transformed Gevo from consistent adjusted EBITDA losses to a solid adjusted EBITDA generator with a path to over $100M of adjusted EBITDA, the firm notes. Also, its sustainable aviation fuel project could have positive news in 2026, making Gevo an underappreciated story, in Northland's view. The firm has an Outperform rating on the shares with a price target of $3.
H.C. Wainwright
Amit Dayal
Buy
maintain
$14
2025-10-15
Reason
H.C. Wainwright
Amit Dayal
Price Target
$14
2025-10-15
maintain
Buy
Reason
H.C. Wainwright analyst Amit Dayal maintains a Buy rating on Gevo with a $14 price target after the the company received a letter from the Department of Energy's Loan Programs Office granting an extension of the $1.6B conditional commitment until April 16, 2026. The news is believe " materially positive" for Gevo, as the Department of Energy is showing flexibility in bringing new sustainable aviation fuel capacity to the market, the analyst tells investors in a research note. H.C. Wainwright believes the disclosure "addresses a major overhang" relating to the financing for Gevo's synthetic aviation fuel expansion plans.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for GEVO
