Buy now: the chart setup is bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) and options positioning is risk-on (low put/call ratios), which fits an impatient “enter now” profile.
Near-term path of least resistance is up toward R1 ~1.538 and potentially R2 ~1.607 if momentum persists; key line to hold is the pivot ~1.428.
Wall Street still leans constructive (Buy maintained), but the price target cut signals tempered expectations—so upside is more “tradeable” than “slam-dunk fundamental re-rate” right now.
Technical Analysis
Trend: Bullish structure with SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200, indicating an established uptrend across short/medium/long horizons.
Momentum: MACD histogram above 0 (0.0135) but positively contracting → upside momentum remains, but is cooling slightly.
RSI (6): 60.73 (neutral-to-bullish). Not overbought; room for continuation.
Key levels: Pivot 1.428 (important hold area). Resistance R1 1.538, then R2 1.607. Supports S1 1.317, S2 1.248.
Tape/price action: Regular session was weak (-2.65%) but post-market bounced (+1.02%)—often consistent with dip-buying behavior near trend support.
Pattern-based forward bias (provided): ~60% chance of +1.29% next week and +2.88% next month (near-term slightly mixed: next day -0.18%).
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Put/call ratios are low (OI PCR 0.44; Volume PCR 0.32) → positioning/skew is bullish.
Activity: Today’s option volume is low in absolute terms (41 contracts), but vs 30-day average shows elevated relative activity (3.13x), suggesting fresh attention.
Volatility: 30D IV 109.57% vs historical vol 59.29% → options are pricing large moves; IV percentile ~51.79 (mid-range), IV rank 15.1 (not extreme vs its own history).
Open interest: Calls OI 45,723 vs Puts OI 20,115 → call-heavy open interest supports a more bullish bias.
Net income: -$18.428M, -30.32% YoY (loss widened vs prior year).
EPS: -0.03, -25% YoY (worse year-over-year).
Gross margin: 97.79%, down 0.61% YoY (still extremely high, but slightly lower).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
2026-01-29 (TD Cowen): Maintained Buy, but lowered price target to $3 from $4 ahead of Q4 results.
Wall Street pro view (pros): Buy maintained suggests continued confidence in the story/trajectory; target still implies substantial upside from ~1.47.
Wall Street con view (cons): Target cut highlights execution/visibility risk and/or a more conservative outlook despite the Buy rating.
Influential/political trading check: No recent Congress trading data available; insiders reported neutral (no significant trend).
Wall Street analysts forecast GERN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GERN is 4 USD with a low forecast of 4 USD and a high forecast of 4 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast GERN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GERN is 4 USD with a low forecast of 4 USD and a high forecast of 4 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 1.460
Low
4
Averages
4
High
4
Current: 1.460
Low
4
Averages
4
High
4
TD Cowen
Tara Bancroft
Buy
downgrade
$4 -> $3
AI Analysis
2026-01-29
Reason
TD Cowen
Tara Bancroft
Price Target
$4 -> $3
AI Analysis
2026-01-29
downgrade
Buy
Reason
TD Cowen analyst Tara Bancroft lowered the firm's price target on Geron to $3 from $4 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm updated its model ahead of Q4 results.
Goldman Sachs
initiated
$1
2025-07-10
Reason
Goldman Sachs
Price Target
$1
2025-07-10
initiated
Reason
Goldman Sachs resumed coverage of Geron with a Sell rating and $1 price target, which suggests 31% downside. The initial launch of the company's lead product and first commercial drug, Rytelo, has disappointed, and the near-term trajectory for the launch will be modest, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for GERN
