Not a good buy right now: the chart remains in a clear downtrend (bearish moving-average stack) and price is still below the key pivot (~9.01).
No Intellectia edge today: AI Stock Picker and SwingMax both show no signal, so there’s no proprietary “must-buy-now” trigger.
Bullish positioning is visible in options (very low put/call ratios) and hedge funds have been accumulating, but fundamentals still show margin pressure and widening losses.
For an impatient buyer, the risk/reward is not favorable until GENI reclaims ~9.01 and holds above it (or shows a stronger trend reversal).
Technical Analysis
Trend: Bearish. Moving averages are stacked negatively (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), signaling an established downtrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.14) but negatively contracting (bearish momentum is fading, which can precede a bounce).
RSI(6): ~28.96 (near oversold), suggesting downside may be getting stretched, but not a confirmed reversal.
Levels:
Support: S1 ~8.265 (price ~8.4 post-market is sitting just above support); S2 ~7.802 below.
Resistance: Pivot ~9.014 (first “trend repair” level), then R1 ~9.762.
Near-term pattern odds (provided): modest upside next day (+0.9%), weakness over next week (-1.89%), better 1-month (+2.89%)—consistent with a choppy base attempt inside a broader downtrend.
Activity: Today’s option volume (606) is ~28.5x the 30-day average (unusual attention/speculation).
Volatility: IV30 ~62.76 vs historical vol ~42.35 (options priced rich vs realized), suggesting traders are paying up for exposure.
Takeaway: Options market is positioned bullish, but the underlying chart hasn’t confirmed a reversal yet (sentiment > trend).
Technical Summary
Sell
9
Buy
6
Positive Catalysts
Regulatory/news tailwind potential: CFTC Chairman announced new rules/standards for prediction markets (could support broader lawful innovation around event contracts).
Street narrative improving: multiple firms raised targets to 16–17 after Investor Day; focus on media monetization and operating leverage.
Hedge funds are buying: reported buying amount up ~266% QoQ (institutional demand).
Long-run opportunity cited by analysts: secular tailwinds in sports data, media/advertising monetization, and a more “rational duopoly” structure.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
with bearish MA structure; technicals don’t support an “immediate buy” for an impatient entry.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Growth: Revenue $166.3M, up 38.34% YoY (strong top-line momentum).
Profitability: Net income - $28.8M, down -330.42% YoY (losses widened materially).
EPS: -0.11, down -320% YoY (earnings trend worsening).
Margins: Gross margin 24.85%, down -25.49% YoY (core concern—scaling revenues but margin compression).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Broadly positive into year-end (multiple Buy/Outperform reiterations and price target raises to $16–$17 after Investor Day), followed by a more cautious initiation.
Stifel (2026-01-21): initiated Hold, PT $10, arguing shares have outperformed and risk/reward is balanced despite attractive multi-year setup.
Wall Street pros: accelerating media monetization, NFL-linked opportunity, operating leverage potential, improving FCF narrative.
Wall Street cons: competitive/rights dynamics and valuation/risk-reward after the run (per Stifel), plus execution required to translate growth into margins.
Wall Street analysts forecast GENI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GENI is 16 USD with a low forecast of 13 USD and a high forecast of 20 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
13 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast GENI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GENI is 16 USD with a low forecast of 13 USD and a high forecast of 20 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
12 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 6.190
Low
13
Averages
16
High
20
Current: 6.190
Low
13
Averages
16
High
20
Oppenheimer
Oppenheimer
Outperform
maintain
$15 -> $12
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
Reason
Oppenheimer
Oppenheimer
Price Target
$15 -> $12
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
maintain
Outperform
Reason
Oppenheimer lowered the firm's price target on Genius Sports to $12 from $15 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm notes Genius Sports traded-off 27.5%, despite issuing 2026 organic Revenue/EBITDA guidance of up 22%/36% year-over-year, after acquiring Legend, a digital OSB/iGaming media network for $1.2B. Oppenheimer believes the market is misinterpreting the acquisition's strategic rationale, and sees Genius leveraging its league-relationships and in-game data with Legend's content optimization engine to further penetrate ad-agency budgets by creating more valuable inventory with better audience targeting.
Benchmark
Mike Hickey
Buy
downgrade
$16 -> $10
2026-02-06
New
Reason
Benchmark
Mike Hickey
Price Target
$16 -> $10
2026-02-06
New
downgrade
Buy
Reason
Benchmark analyst Mike Hickey lowered the firm's price target on Genius Sports to $10 from $16 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company's reported 2025 results and 2026 standalone guidance reinforce the firm's view that the core Genius business remains strong, but the firm is revisiting its investment thesis to assess the financial accretion, strategic implications, and evolving risk profile of the business following the announcement of Genius' acquisition of Legend, the analyst tells investors.
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