Should I Buy GEF.B? GEF.B 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Greif Inc (GEF.B) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

87.760

1 Day change

1.48%

52 Week Range

91.950

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now: price action appears extended (RSI elevated and recent sharp move), while Wall Street price targets (roughly $72–$79) are below the stated post-market price ($91.35), implying unfavorable reward/risk for an impatient entry.
Trend is bullish, but the setup looks like a chase after a strong run; better entries would be closer to support/pivot levels rather than after a spike.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.
Institutional/insider tone is neutral (no strong “smart money” confirmation), so there’s no added urgency to buy immediately.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish structure with moving averages stacked positively (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), suggesting an established uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram is positive and expanding (0.0262), confirming upside momentum.
Overbought/extension risk: RSI_6 at 75.724 signals the stock is running hot short-term (more prone to pullbacks).
Key levels (from provided pivots): Pivot 72.225; Resistance R1 74.998 / R2 76.711; Support S1 69.451 / S2 67.738. The stock is trading above prior resistance zones (implies extension).
Pattern-based odds: model indicates positive drift (next day +0.65%, next week +4.61%, next month +6.27%), but this doesn’t offset the “buying extended” issue at the current post-market level.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/sentiment: Open Interest Put-Call Ratio 0.45 is bullish (more calls than puts outstanding).
Flow: Put volume is effectively zero today (Volume Put-Call Ratio 0.0), reinforcing bullish/low-hedging tone, though overall volume is small (14 contracts).
Volatility: 30D IV 27.92 vs HV 23.46 (IV > realized), implying options are priced somewhat rich; IV percentile ~60.96 suggests moderately elevated relative to its range.
Takeaway: Options lean bullish, but the low volume limits how much conviction you should assign to it.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Q1 FY2026: Adjusted EBITDA +24% YoY and margin improved to 12.3% (operational improvement narrative).
- Capital returns: completed $130M of a $150M buyback program; approved additional $300M repurchase authorization (supportive for share price).
- Guidance: reaffirmed 2026 low-end guidance ($630M adj. EBITDA; $315M FCF), reducing near-term guidance uncertainty.
- Execution message: management emphasizing commercial execution and capacity expansions.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Top-line pressure: Q1 FY2026 revenue down -21.41% YoY (demand/end-market softness).
- Segment challenges: Durable Metal Solutions and Sustainable Fiber Solutions facing headwinds; Customized Polymer Solutions demand flat.
- Street skepticism remains: recent downgrade (Wells Fargo) citing lack of catalysts and sluggish fundamentals.
- If the relevant trading price is truly near $91, it’s well above recent Street targets—making upside harder to justify near-term.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2026/Q1.
Revenue: $994.8M, down 21.41% YoY (clear contraction in sales).
Profitability: Gross margin 20.37%, up 5.05% YoY (better margin mix/cost control).
Net income: $174.6M, up 1930% YoY (likely includes non-recurring items; not clean “core” growth signal).
EPS: reported as 0, down 100% YoY in the snapshot (headline EPS trend is not supportive despite net income spike).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: price targets were lifted into late Jan/early Jan (Baird to $75; BofA to $75; Truist to $79), but ratings largely stayed Neutral/Hold; Wells Fargo downgraded to Equal Weight.
Where Street stands: largely “wait-and-see”—acknowledging execution/margin progress but concerned about volume/end-market softness and insufficient catalysts for a sustained re-rate.
Wall Street pros: improved EBITDA/margins, disciplined execution, sizable buyback authorization.
Wall Street cons: weak revenue trend, challenged volumes, cautious macro backdrop; targets imply limited upside at the current stated post-market price.
Politicians/congress: no recent congress trading data available; no noted politician activity in provided data.

Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast GEF.B stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GEF.B is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

Buy

Hold

Sell

Current: 86.480

Low

Averages

High

Current: 86.480

Low

Averages

High

Truist Securities

Michael Roxland

Hold

Reiterates

$71 → $65

AI Analysis

2025-03-03

Reason

Truist Securities

Michael Roxland

Price Target

$71 → $65

AI Analysis

2025-03-03

Reiterates

Hold

Reason

Wells Fargo

Gabe Hajde

Buy

Maintains

$76 → $75

2025-03-03

Reason

Wells Fargo

Gabe Hajde

Price Target

$76 → $75

2025-03-03

Maintains

Buy

Reason

GEF.B Should I Buy

GEF.B Should I Buy

Should You Buy Greif Inc (GEF.B) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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