Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: recent price action is volatility-driven and currently lacks a proprietary “strong buy” signal.
Near-term statistical trend is slightly bearish (model points to mild downside over 1 week/1 month), while momentum is getting stretched.
Despite a potentially meaningful 5G/4G licensing catalyst, fundamentals (revenue collapse and deeply negative gross margin) do not support chasing strength at this moment.
Technical Analysis
Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram is positive and expanding (bullish momentum building), but RSI(6) at ~69 is near overbought territory, implying upside may be limited short term.
Moving averages: Converging MAs suggest transition/chop rather than a clean trend—higher whipsaw risk.
Price action context: Large intraday surge followed by after-hours drop signals unstable demand; not ideal for immediate entry without confirmation above the pivot.
Quant pattern read: Similar-pattern projection shows ~60% chance of slight declines (next day ~-0.26%, next week ~-1.73%, next month ~-2.07%).
Positive Catalysts
5G/4G chipset licensing deal with a major satellite communications provider; shipments expected to begin in 2H 2026 (credible strategic validation and potential future revenue stream).
MACD turning up suggests improving short-term momentum if price can reclaim and hold above the 1.299 pivot.
Analyst maintains Buy rating (B. Riley) with price target well above current price, implying perceived upside if execution improves.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Market reaction to the licensing news was volatile: shares fell sharply after-hours after a big regular-session spike—signals fragile sentiment and potential “sell the news.”
Technical overhead: price is still below the pivot (1.299), making rebounds vulnerable to rejection.
Near-term pattern probabilities lean modestly negative over the next week/month.
Fundamentals remain weak (see financials), limiting support for a sustained rerating in the immediate term.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $0.43M, down -83.52% YoY (sharp contraction; indicates business ramp is not yet reflected in reported sales).
Net income: -$13.85M (still a loss) but improved 94.48% YoY (loss narrowing).
EPS: -0.25, improved 56.25% YoY.
Gross margin: -244.19% (extremely negative), down -491.96% YoY—points to severe cost/absorption issues and poor near-term unit economics.
Takeaway: profitability is improving from a very weak base, but revenue collapse and highly negative margins make the current story primarily future-catalyst-driven rather than fundamentals-driven today.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Most recent: 2025-11-13 B. Riley kept a Buy rating but cut price target to $4.00 from $4.50 after a Q3 miss.
Rationale cited: 5G sampling completed, with volume shipments expected to commence in Q4 (timeline optimism, but execution risk acknowledged by the cut).
Wall Street-style pros: meaningful upside if shipments ramp and licensing/5G commercialization converts into revenue; low absolute price can amplify upside.
Wall Street-style cons: recent earnings miss, very weak revenue base, and extremely negative gross margin suggest high execution risk and dependence on future ramp timing.
Influential/Politician activity: No recent congress trading data available; hedge funds and insiders show neutral trends (no strong conviction signal).
Wall Street analysts forecast GCTS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GCTS is 3.5 USD with a low forecast of 3 USD and a high forecast of 4 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast GCTS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GCTS is 3.5 USD with a low forecast of 3 USD and a high forecast of 4 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 1.260
Low
3
Averages
3.5
High
4
Current: 1.260
Low
3
Averages
3.5
High
4
B. Riley
Buy
downgrade
$4
AI Analysis
2025-11-13
Reason
B. Riley
Price Target
$4
AI Analysis
2025-11-13
downgrade
Buy
Reason
B. Riley lowered the firm's price target on GCT Semiconductor to $4 from $4.50 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company's Q3 report missed estimates following a completed 5G sampling period with volume shipments commencing in Q4, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
