Not a good buy right now: price is breaking down (regular session -6.9%) and momentum is still deteriorating (bearish MACD expansion).
Closest support is tight at S1 ~38.37; current post-market ~38.9 is hovering just above it, so downside risk to S2 ~37.09 remains immediate if support fails.
Options positioning looks bullish (calls dominate), but it’s not confirmed by price/volume or any proprietary entry signal.
With no fresh news catalyst and insiders selling aggressively, the cleaner move for an impatient buyer is to stand aside rather than chase a falling tape.
Trend/momentum: Bearish near-term—MACD histogram -0.244 and negatively expanding, signaling selling pressure is strengthening.
RSI(6): 39.6 (neutral-to-weak), not yet showing a clear oversold reversal signal.
Moving averages: Converging (often a pre-breakout setup), but the current move is resolving down.
Key levels: Pivot 40.45 (now overhead resistance). Support 38.37 (S1) then 37.09 (S2); Resistances 42.52 (R1) and 43.81 (R2).
Pattern-based forward stats (similar candlesticks): slight bearish bias near-term (next day/week negative), modest positive skew over a month (+0.26%), suggesting any rebound may take time rather than be immediate.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Bullish skew—Put/Call ratios are low (OI 0.43, Volume 0.31), indicating more call interest than puts.
Volatility: IV(30d) ~69.3 vs HV 51 (options pricing in elevated moves), but IV percentile ~18.7 / IV rank ~13.4 suggests IV is relatively low versus its own history (not “expensive” vs recent ranges).
Activity: Today’s option volume 224 is well below 5D/10D averages (686/882), so sentiment read is less reliable due to light participation.
Positioning: Call OI (12,294) materially above put OI (5,324), consistent with bullish longer positioning—yet price action has not confirmed.
Technical Summary
Sell
3
Buy
9
Positive Catalysts
Earnings catalyst ahead: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-03-02 (After Hours); a beat could quickly reverse the current selloff.
Revenue still growing: 2025/Q3 revenue +9.67% YoY, indicating demand is not collapsing.
Net income: $37.175M, -8.63% YoY (profitability down).
EPS: $0.99, +1.02% YoY (slight improvement despite lower net income).
Gross margin: 23.16%, down ~9.07% YoY (core concern—margin compression is the main fundamental drag).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent rating/target trend: generally stable-to-slightly positive on targets (Roth 33 from 31; Lake Street 36 from 33), but ratings are mixed (Buy vs Neutral).
Pro view (bull case): strong quarters vs guidance and cash resources support growth/acquisitions (Lake Street maintains Buy, PT 36).
Con view (bear case): Roth stays Neutral and wants clearer growth + margin expansion across segments before turning constructive.
Data quality note: one entry references “GCT Semiconductor” with a $3 target, which appears inconsistent with GigaCloud’s trading range; it should be treated as a questionable datapoint rather than a true consensus signal.
Net take: Wall Street is not uniformly bullish, and the actionable targets listed are not above the current price, weakening the case for an immediate buy.
Wall Street analysts forecast GCT stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GCT is 37.67 USD with a low forecast of 33 USD and a high forecast of 44 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast GCT stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GCT is 37.67 USD with a low forecast of 33 USD and a high forecast of 44 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 38.570
Low
33
Averages
37.67
High
44
Current: 38.570
Low
33
Averages
37.67
High
44
H.C. Wainwright
H.C. Wainwright
Buy
initiated
$3
AI Analysis
2025-12-11
Reason
H.C. Wainwright
H.C. Wainwright
Price Target
$3
AI Analysis
2025-12-11
initiated
Buy
Reason
H.C. Wainwright initiated coverage of GCT Semiconductor with a Buy rating and $3 price target. The firm says the company is well positioned to scale its 5G chip business as adoption of 5G technology increases.
Roth Capital
Neutral
maintain
$31 -> $33
2025-11-17
Reason
Roth Capital
Price Target
$31 -> $33
2025-11-17
maintain
Neutral
Reason
Roth Capital raised the firm's price target on GigaCloud to $33 from $31 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. GigaCloud delivered another large sales beat vs. guidance, likely enabled by a return to growth at the acquired Noble House and off-platform e-commerce, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Roth awaits a return to growth and margin expansion in both segments before getting constructive.
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