Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: momentum is still bearish (negative, expanding MACD) and fundamentals/news flow are deteriorating.
Price is sitting right on key support (28.16); a short-term bounce is possible, but the trend bias remains down unless it reclaims the pivot (32.51).
Options flow is call-skewed, but IV is extremely elevated (IV percentile ~92), which often coincides with uncertainty/event risk rather than clean upside conviction.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals: No signal on given stock today. (No AI Stock Picker; no SwingMax entry)
Technical Analysis
Trend/momentum: Bearish; MACD histogram -0.882 and negatively expanding suggests downside momentum is strengthening.
RSI: RSI(6) ~23.8 indicates oversold/washed-out near-term conditions, which can allow a reflex bounce, but does not by itself confirm a trend reversal.
Moving averages: Converging MAs imply a potential inflection zone, but with MACD worsening the odds still favor further weakness before stabilization.
Key levels: Support S1 ~28.159 (price is essentially on it); if it breaks, next support S2 ~25.469. Upside hurdles: Pivot ~32.514 then R1 ~36.869.
Pattern-based near-term stats: Next day skew slightly negative (50% chance to -1.32%); next week modestly positive (+1.8%); next month slightly negative (-1.03%) — choppy, not a clean uptrend setup.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Open interest put/call 0.81 = mildly call-leaning positioning; volume put/call 0.01 (puts almost absent) = very call-skewed today.
Volatility: Implied vol 30D ~79.4 with IV percentile ~92.4 indicates options are pricing unusually high uncertainty/move.
Activity: Today’s volume (~150) is elevated vs 30D average (156%); open interest ~1,093 with today vs OI avg ~62 suggests positioning exists but today’s change isn’t extreme.
Technical Summary
Sell
6
Buy
8
Positive Catalysts
could trigger a short-term relief bounce if support holds.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
adds leadership/transition risk; interim CFO role shifts to CEO (even if stated as non-disagreement).
Profitability: Net income $5.36M, -128.29% YoY; EPS $0.50, -128.41% YoY (earnings collapse versus prior year).
Margins: Gross margin 46.84%, down 2.09% YoY, consistent with margin pressure and softer traffic/mix.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent direction: Mostly negative revisions (multiple price target cuts) after Q3 miss / guidance reset.
Truist: Hold; PT cut to $27 from $31 (highlights decelerating comps and post-holiday pullback risk).
Jefferies: Hold; PT cut to $26 from $29 (notes margin pressure and softer consumer traffic).
Seaport Research: Buy; PT cut to $38 from $42 (disappointed with FY26 guidance but bullish longer-term Journeys/EPS ramp).
Wall Street pro/con: Pros = longer-term recovery story per Seaport; Cons = near-term execution/margin/traffic issues reflected in multiple Hold ratings and targets now around/below the current price.
Wall Street analysts forecast GCO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GCO is 30.33 USD with a low forecast of 26 USD and a high forecast of 38 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast GCO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GCO is 30.33 USD with a low forecast of 26 USD and a high forecast of 38 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 27.390
Low
26
Averages
30.33
High
38
Current: 27.390
Low
26
Averages
30.33
High
38
Truist
Hold
downgrade
$31 -> $27
AI Analysis
2025-12-05
Reason
Truist
Price Target
$31 -> $27
AI Analysis
2025-12-05
downgrade
Hold
Reason
Truist lowered the firm's price target on Genesco to $27 from $31 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The stock fell following a Q3 miss and lowering guidance well below the Street for Q4, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Journeys Q3 comps came in at up 6% vs. the double digit quarter-to-date comp at the time of the Q2 call as trends decelerated during the leading up to Black Friday, and the company believes it may see a similar pull-back following the Holiday season, Truist added.
Seaport Research
Buy
downgrade
$42 -> $38
2025-12-05
Reason
Seaport Research
Price Target
$42 -> $38
2025-12-05
downgrade
Buy
Reason
Seaport Research lowered the firm's price target on Genesco to $38 from $42 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm is disappointed by the revised guidance for FY26, but remains bullish on Journey's path and anticipates substantial EPS increase in FY27, the analyst tells investors.
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