Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: the chart is extended/overbought (RSI_6 ~80.9) and price is pressing near the next resistance zone (R2 ~54.73), which skews near-term risk/reward against fresh entry.
Trend is still bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200 and MACD histogram expanding), so existing holders can hold, but new money is better deployed after a pullback toward ~51.1 (pivot) or ~48.8 (S1).
Options positioning is bullish (low put/call ratios) and IV is low (IV percentile ~14), but that optimism is already reflected in price after the recent run-up.
Trend: Bullish structure with moving averages stacked positively (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), indicating an established uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram at 0.205 and expanding above zero = bullish momentum still building.
Overbought risk: RSI_6 at 80.921 signals a stretched move; odds of short-term consolidation/pullback are elevated.
Levels: Pivot 51.086 is the first “healthy pullback” area; support S1 48.836 (then S2 47.446). Resistance overhead at R2 54.725.
Pattern-based projection (similar candlesticks): ~60% chance of -0.59% next day, +0.81% next week, and -2.76% next month → suggests upside is getting choppier with a slightly negative 1-month skew.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Put/call ratios are low (OI PCR 0.45; Volume PCR 0.19) → options flow is net-bullish.
Volatility pricing: 30D IV ~33.03 vs historical vol ~42.36 (IV discounted); IV percentile ~14 and IV rank ~5.97 → options are relatively cheap, implying the market is not pricing large near-term moves.
Interpretation: Bullish positioning supports the uptrend, but with RSI overbought, it also increases the risk of a “crowded” long setup near resistance.
Technical Summary
Sell
6
Buy
10
Positive Catalysts
Financing catalyst: Completed a $300M asset-backed securities offering at a blended 5.2% rate for long-term financing—improves funding visibility for the leasing platform.
Technical momentum remains constructive (bullish MA stack + positive/expanding MACD).
One notable bullish analyst action: Susquehanna raised PT to $60 (Positive), implying upside from current levels if execution holds.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
and BofA remains Underperform (PT $
→ meaningful split on Street view.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2026/Q1 (fiscal Q1).
Revenue: $706.1M, down -19.39% YoY → top-line contraction.
Net income: $36.4M, down -34.18% YoY → profitability pressured.
EPS: $1.14, down -33.72% YoY.
Gross margin: 14.63%, down -26.19% YoY → margin compression is the key negative growth trend in the quarter.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent changes:
2026-01-26 Susquehanna: PT raised to $60 from $52; rating Positive (more constructive on outlook despite “soft but stable” backdrop).
2026-01-09 BofA: PT raised to $49 from $41; kept Underperform, citing non-core gains boosting reported results.
Wall Street pros: Some see resilience/financing stability and potential upside (Susquehanna’s higher PT).
Wall Street cons: Bears focus on cyclical headwinds, rail industry structure risk, and quality of earnings (Goldman Sell; BofA Underperform).
Trading/holders context: Hedge funds and insiders are Neutral (no notable recent trend). Politician/congress activity: no recent congress trading data available.
Wall Street analysts forecast GBX stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GBX is 46.33 USD with a low forecast of 38 USD and a high forecast of 52 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast GBX stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GBX is 46.33 USD with a low forecast of 38 USD and a high forecast of 52 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
0 Hold
2 Sell
Moderate Sell
Current: 53.800
Low
38
Averages
46.33
High
52
Current: 53.800
Low
38
Averages
46.33
High
52
Susquehanna
Positive
maintain
$52 -> $60
AI Analysis
2026-01-26
Reason
Susquehanna
Price Target
$52 -> $60
AI Analysis
2026-01-26
maintain
Positive
Reason
Susquehanna raised the firm's price target on Greenbrier to $60 from $52 and keeps a Positive rating on the shares. The firm adjusted rail equipment targets as part of a 2026 outlook. The North America railcar backdrop is "soft but stable," with locomotive better than feared and momentum in international, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Susquehanna also sees some lingering tariff uncertainty.
BofA
Underperform
maintain
$41 -> $49
2026-01-09
Reason
BofA
Price Target
$41 -> $49
2026-01-09
maintain
Underperform
Reason
BofA raised the firm's price target on Greenbrier to $49 from $41 and keeps an Underperform rating on the shares after the company reported fiscal Q1 EPS of $1.14, above the firm's 84c forecast. However, results include $17M, or 30c per share in gains on asset disposition and a 15c per share below-the-line gain in minority interest/equity earnings, so core results missed the firm's target by 31c per share, the analyst noted. Following the report, the firm increased its FY26 EPS view by 4% to $4.40, but lowers its FY27 estimate 6% to $4.40.
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