Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: trend is still bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) and price is sitting right on key support (~12.86), which raises near-term downside risk.
Earnings were in-line and one analyst just upgraded, but the latest quarter shows clear YoY deterioration (revenue/EPS/net income down sharply), which limits upside follow-through.
Net: avoid initiating a new position at this level; better treated as a hold (or wait for a clearer trend reversal / bounce confirmation above ~13.32 pivot).
Technical Analysis
Trend/structure: Bearish moving average stack (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) signals a prevailing downtrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.0813 (below zero) with negative contraction = bearish momentum is easing, but not reversed.
RSI(6): 35.0 = leaning toward oversold, suggesting a bounce is possible, but not a confirmed reversal.
Levels: Pivot 13.317 (needs reclaim for bullish shift). Immediate support S1 12.855 (current post-market 12.83 is slightly below/at risk); next support S2 12.569. Resistance R1 13.779 then R2 14.065.
Pattern-based short-term odds (provided): 40% chance to ~0.51% next day; stronger projected bias over week/month, but current tape still technically weak.
Sentiment read: OI put/call 0.63 suggests positioning is more call-leaning overall, but today’s put/call volume 5.6 indicates bearish/defensive trading flow today (puts dominating the tape).
Activity: today’s option volume 33 vs 30D average (89%) = not a major spike; sentiment signal is present but not “capitulation.”
Volatility: IV30 28.85 vs historical vol 17.99 (IV > HV) = options pricing implies elevated uncertainty/risk premium; IV percentile 42.6 is mid-range (not extreme).
Technical Summary
Sell
9
Buy
4
Positive Catalysts
Fiscal Q1 (reported 2026-02-04 after hours) adjusted EPS came in at $0.38, in-line with Wall Street expectations, helping reduce near-term earnings surprise risk.
Recent analyst support: Wells Fargo upgraded to Overweight with a $14 target, citing portfolio diversity and structural fee features.
Regular-session strength (+2.23%) suggests some buyers stepped in around earnings before the post-market fade.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Options flow today is defensive (put-heavy volume), pointing to cautious near-term sentiment.
Growth trend (YoY): Revenue $179.7M (-23.68% YoY), Net Income $65.2M (-41.39% YoY), EPS $0.25 (-40.48% YoY) — clearly weaker than last year.
Earnings quality headline: adjusted EPS $0.38 met estimates, but the YoY declines indicate fundamental momentum has been negative even if the quarter met expectations.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent rating/target trend: generally supportive but with some caution.
Wells Fargo (2026-01-07): upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight; PT $14 (constructive turn).
BofA (2025-11-28): maintained Buy but trimmed PT to $15 from $15.50 (multiple contraction / lower-rate and private credit concerns).
Keefe Bruyette (2025-11-21): maintained Outperform but trimmed PT to $15 from $15.50 (spread compression pressures yield).
Wall Street pros vs cons: Pros = diverse portfolio and supportive structure/valuation per Wells. Cons = spread compression, lower-rate environment concerns, and private credit multiple pressure implied by multiple PT trims.
Influential trading check: hedge funds neutral; insiders neutral; no recent Congress trading data available.
Wall Street analysts forecast GBDC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GBDC is 15 USD with a low forecast of 14 USD and a high forecast of 16 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast GBDC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GBDC is 15 USD with a low forecast of 14 USD and a high forecast of 16 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 12.380
Low
14
Averages
15
High
16
Current: 12.380
Low
14
Averages
15
High
16
Keefe Bruyette
Market Perform
downgrade
$15 -> $14
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
Reason
Keefe Bruyette
Price Target
$15 -> $14
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
downgrade
Market Perform
Reason
Keefe Bruyette lowered the firm's price target on Golub Capital to $14 from $15 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares. Golub's deep experience should result in more favorable outcomes as AI disruption plays out, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Wells Fargo
Finian O'Shea
Overweight
downgrade
$14 -> $13
2026-02-06
New
Reason
Wells Fargo
Finian O'Shea
Price Target
$14 -> $13
2026-02-06
New
downgrade
Overweight
Reason
Wells Fargo analyst Finian O'Shea lowered the firm's price target on Golub Capital to $13 from $14 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says Golub Capital's dividend announcement had "unfortunate timing but is now behind us."
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