Trend/momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.0853) and expanding, indicating bullish momentum is still active.
Overbought/extension: RSI_6 at ~74.7 suggests the stock is stretched short-term (higher pullback risk).
Moving averages: converging MAs imply the trend is not a clean, strong sustained breakout—more vulnerable to chop.
Levels: Price (~17.24) is above R1 (17.113) and below R2 (17.531). This is a tougher area to buy (closer to resistance than support).
Near-term model odds: pattern-based projection is slightly positive next day, but negative bias over the next week (-2.5%) and month (-9.69%), aligning with “late-in-move” risk.
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Open interest put/call ratio 1.2 leans bearish/defensive positioning; volume put/call ratio 6.0 is strongly bearish on the day.
Activity: today’s option volume is very low in absolute terms (7 contracts), but put-skewed; interpret direction cautiously due to small sample.
Volatility: IV30 ~59.4 vs HV ~40.8 indicates options are pricing elevated forward uncertainty; IV percentile ~64 suggests relatively rich premium vs its own history.
Positioning takeaway: skew favors downside hedges/speculation near current levels, not supportive of an immediate “buy now” chase.
Technical Summary
Sell
4
Buy
12
Positive Catalysts
Strong latest reported growth (2025/Q3): Revenue +25.6% YoY, Net income +41.6% YoY, EPS +66.7% YoY.
Analyst stance remains constructive overall (Overweight maintained by Barclays, even after a target trim).
No notable insider selling or hedge-fund-driven pressure indicated (both neutral).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
and price is near resistance (between R1 and R2).
No fresh news/catalyst in the past week to fuel a sustained breakout.
Most recent update (2026-01-07): Barclays maintained Overweight but cut price target to $19 from $21.
Trend takeaway: rating stayed bullish, but the target reduction signals tempered near-term upside expectations.
Wall Street pro view (pros): still seen as a relative winner vs peers with solid growth trajectory.
Wall Street con view (cons): industry sales/traffic challenges and margin durability remain key risks; reduced targets reflect a tougher operating setup.
Politicians/Congress: no recent congress trading data available in the last 90 days.
Wall Street analysts forecast FWRG stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FWRG is 21.75 USD with a low forecast of 17 USD and a high forecast of 24 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
8 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast FWRG stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FWRG is 21.75 USD with a low forecast of 17 USD and a high forecast of 24 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 16.980
Low
17
Averages
21.75
High
24
Current: 16.980
Low
17
Averages
21.75
High
24
Barclays
Overweight
maintain
$21 -> $19
AI Analysis
2026-01-07
Reason
Barclays
Price Target
$21 -> $19
AI Analysis
2026-01-07
maintain
Overweight
Reason
Barclays lowered the firm's price target on First Watch Restaurant to $19 from $21 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the restaurant group as part of its 2026 outlook. Sales challenges persist for the sector, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays expects quick service to regain share from fast casual and casual dining, and it remains bullish on foodservice distribution.
BofA
Sara Senatore
Buy
maintain
$22 -> $24
2025-10-24
Reason
BofA
Sara Senatore
Price Target
$22 -> $24
2025-10-24
maintain
Buy
Reason
BofA analyst Sara Senatore raised the firm's price target on First Watch Restaurant to $24 from $22 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. After a Q2 earnings season that "seemed to hit the market like a bucket of cold water," investor enthusiasm for restaurants is "decidedly absent," says the analyst, who has also grown more cautious given the widening of macro pressures beyond the low-income cohort. For stocks trading at the low end of their historical valuation ranges, the firm expects the market to respond favorably to signs that earnings are intact, the analyst added in a group preview.
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