Should I Buy FTAI? FTAI 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy FTAI Aviation Ltd (FTAI) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

272.610

1 Day change

5.21%

52 Week Range

310.000

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Buy now: FTAI is pulling back (~-7.5% regular session) into a nearby support zone (S1 ~261.6) while the broader trend remains bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200).
Street + fundamentals are aligned bullish: multiple large price-target hikes (up to $350) tied to OEM partnerships (CFM) and the new FTAI Power growth vector.
Options positioning is risk-on (put/call ratios < 1) and hedge funds are aggressively accumulating (+884.97% QoQ buying), supporting a near-term rebound setup.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals: No signal on given stock today (AI Stock Picker: none; SwingMax: none), so this is a fundamentals + pullback entry rather than a system-triggered trade.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Longer-term uptrend intact (bullish moving average stack: SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), but price is in a sharp short-term pullback.
Momentum: MACD histogram -3.985 and negatively expanding = downside momentum still active (dip not fully “done”).
RSI: RSI_6 38.66 = weak/near-oversold territory but not a strong reversal reading yet.
Key levels: Immediate support S1 261.57 (then S2 248.83). Overhead pivot/resistance 282.20, then 302.82.
Pattern-based forward view (similar candlesticks): slight downside bias next day/week, but positive 1-month skew (+6.08%), consistent with “buy the dip” into support.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: Put/call ratios below 1 (OI PCR 0.56; Volume PCR 0.65) imply a bullish tilt (more call positioning than puts).
Volatility: 30D IV 69.31 vs historical vol 53.39 = options pricing in elevated moves; IV percentile 68.92 suggests relatively rich premiums.
Activity: Today’s option volume 1,745, well below 5D/10D averages (~3,231/3,057) = not a “panic hedge” day; more consistent with consolidation after a big move.
Positioning depth: Total OI is large (todays OI 49,579), supporting liquidity and sustained speculation/hedging interest.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Strategic OEM validation: Multi-year agreement with CFM International securing component supply and strengthening FTAI as a leading non-OEM player in the CFM56 aftermarket.
- New growth platform: FTAI Power converting CFM56 engines into power turbines aimed at data centers—credible incremental TAM and revenue stream.
- Productivity/AI enablement: Partnership with Palantir to improve inventory management and maintenance scheduling (operational leverage narrative).
- Institutional flow: Hedge funds are net buying, with purchase amount up ~885% QoQ.
- Upcoming catalyst: Earnings on 2026-02-25 (After Hours) with Street EPS est. 1.22—potential event-driven upside if execution holds.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Short-term momentum is bearish: MACD downside expansion suggests the pullback can continue before a clean reversal.
- Margin pressure: Gross margin down YoY (37.31%, -8.31% YoY) despite strong growth—market may scrutinize profitability quality.
- Valuation sensitivity: News notes the stock around ~41x forward earnings, leaving less room for disappointment.
- No insider conviction signal: Insiders are reported as neutral (no meaningful recent trend).
- No political/influencer confirmation: No recent Congress trading data available (no corroborating “influential buyer” signal).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3 showed strong growth:
- Revenue $667.064M, +43.21% YoY (high demand/execution).
- Net income $114.009M, +45.89% YoY.
- EPS 1.10, +44.74% YoY.
Quality check: Growth is excellent, but gross margin fell to 37.31% (-8.31% YoY), a key metric to monitor into the next print.
Trading trends: Hedge funds buying aggressively; insiders neutral; no Congress trades reported in the last 90 days.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Clear positive trend in ratings/targets (late Jan 2026): multiple firms reiterated Buy/Outperform/Overweight while raising price targets sharply.
Recent price target lifts:
- RBC: $350 (from $270), Outperform — highlights CFM partnership as strategically significant.
- BTIG: $335 (from $230), Buy — views OEM partnerships as validation and competitive advantage.
- Citizens: $325 (from $230), Outperform — emphasizes shift to capital-light platform and valuation uplift potential.
- Morgan Stanley: $266 (from $220), Overweight — additional angle via industrial/aeroderivative power opportunity.
Wall Street pros vs cons:
- Pros: OEM partnerships, expanding engine/component ecosystem, new power turbine vertical, strong recent growth.
- Cons: High valuation multiple and margin compression risk; stock can react sharply around earnings.

6 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast FTAI stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FTAI is 236.83 USD with a low forecast of 200 USD and a high forecast of 270 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

6 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 259.110

Low

200

Averages

236.83

High

270

Current: 259.110

Low

200

Averages

236.83

High

270

Citizens

Outperform

maintain

$230 -> $325

AI Analysis

2026-01-29

Reason

Citizens

Price Target

$230 -> $325

AI Analysis

2026-01-29

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Citizens raised the firm's price target on FTAI Aviation to $325 from $230 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. FTAI has transformed over the past 3-5 years into an industry-leading maintenance, repair, and exchange platform while shifting from a balance-sheet-heavy aviation leasing model to a capital-light alternative asset management structure, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that this evolution is expected to have a meaningful positive impact on the company's valuation over time.

RBC Capital

Outperform

maintain

$270 -> $350

2026-01-26

Reason

RBC Capital

Price Target

$270 -> $350

2026-01-26

maintain

Outperform

Reason

RBC Capital raised the firm's price target on FTAI Aviation to $350 from $270 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Among the recent FTAI announcements, the recent CFM International partnership is perhaps the most strategically significant, and the firm believes FTAI is now positioned to exceed prior CFM56 expectations in terms of both revenues and margins, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The company should now be viewed as the leading non-OEM player in the CFM56 aftermarker, the firm added.

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FTAI Should I Buy

FTAI Should I Buy

Should You Buy FTAI Aviation Ltd (FTAI) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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