Not a good buy right now: price is breaking down (below key support) with bearish momentum and no proprietary buy signals.
Options positioning is call-heavy, but implied volatility is extremely elevated into earnings, suggesting the market is pricing a large move rather than offering a clean risk/reward entry.
With earnings (QDEC 2025) on 2026-02-11 after hours and a weak short-term statistical outlook, the setup favors staying on the sidelines rather than chasing a bounce.
Trend/momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.06) and expanding lower, signaling increasing bearish momentum.
RSI: RSI(6) at ~22.5 is deeply oversold (bounce potential), but oversold readings can persist during downtrends.
Moving averages: Converging MAs indicate compression/indecision, but today’s sharp drop tilts the near-term bias bearish.
Key levels: Current ~8.31 is below S1 (8.423) and below the pivot (9.41), implying broken support; next support is S2 (7.813). Near-term resistance levels sit at ~9.41 then ~10.40.
Price action context: Regular session -5.63% with only a small post-market uptick (+0.36%)—not yet a convincing reversal.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Put/Call ratios are low (OI 0.47; volume 0.17), typically bullish/call-skewed positioning.
Volatility: 30D IV ~100.2 vs historical vol ~49.4; IV percentile ~85—options are very expensive, consistent with an earnings-driven move being priced in.
Activity: Today’s option volume (1096) is below recent averages (5D/10D avg volumes 3040/4160), so positioning looks skewed but not accompanied by unusually strong fresh flow.
Setup implication: Call-skewed sentiment exists, but the very high IV into earnings reduces the attractiveness of “buying now” from a timing perspective.
Technical Summary
Sell
7
Buy
7
Positive Catalysts
~22.
Revenue growth has re-accelerated (Q3 2025 +15.3% YoY) and gross margin improved.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
with bearish MACD expansion.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $158.223M, up +15.32% YoY (growth improving).
Profitability: Net income -$29.483M (more negative YoY, down -22.45%); EPS -0.20 (down -25.93% YoY) — losses widened.
Margins: Gross margin 58.35%, up +7.12% YoY — a constructive operating quality signal, but not yet translating into bottom-line improvement.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Price targets mostly cluster around $10–$11 with predominantly Neutral/Sector Perform/Perform stances; one notable bullish outlier is KeyBanc’s Overweight.
Latest changes: Citi cut PT to $10 from $12 (kept Neutral) on 2026-01-16; RBC raised PT to $10 (Sector Perform) and Piper raised to $11 (Neutral) on 2026-01-05.
Bull case (Wall St.): execution under newer leadership, security adoption/cross-sell, and potential AI/enterprise tailwinds.
Bear case (Wall St.): durability of growth still questioned, core CDN pricing pressure, and continued net losses; hence the broad “neutral” posture overall.
Wall Street analysts forecast FSLY stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FSLY is 11.7 USD with a low forecast of 10 USD and a high forecast of 14 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast FSLY stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FSLY is 11.7 USD with a low forecast of 10 USD and a high forecast of 14 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Buy
7 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 7.960
Low
10
Averages
11.7
High
14
Current: 7.960
Low
10
Averages
11.7
High
14
Citi
Fatima Boolani
Neutral
downgrade
$12 -> $10
AI Analysis
2026-01-16
Reason
Citi
Fatima Boolani
Price Target
$12 -> $10
AI Analysis
2026-01-16
downgrade
Neutral
Reason
Citi analyst Fatima Boolani lowered the firm's price target on Fastly to $10 from $12 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the infrastructure software group as part of its 2026 outlook. It sees the sector's 2025 momentum carrying into the new year.
RBC Capital
Sector Perform
maintain
$9 -> $10
2026-01-05
Reason
RBC Capital
Price Target
$9 -> $10
2026-01-05
maintain
Sector Perform
Reason
RBC Capital raised the firm's price target on Fastly to $10 from $9 and keeps a Sector Perform rating on the shares. 2026 is likely to be a year when AI tailwinds become more evident for companies well positioned for enterprise AI adoption, while less prepared peers may remain pressured by the "AI is the death of software" narrative, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Enterprise spending appears to be stabilizing and improving in select areas, with GenAI driving innovation even as management teams remain conservative in early 2026 guidance, the firm says.
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