Should I Buy FSLR? FSLR 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy First Solar Inc (FSLR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

218.730

1 Day change

-6.67%

52 Week Range

285.990

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

Should I buy Analysis is updated weekly. For real time "Should I Buy" analysis, please sign up to get free answers.

Not a good buy right now: price action/technicals are neutral and there is no Intellectia buy signal to override the mixed setup.
Near-term headline risk is elevated (securities-fraud investigation news + Tesla competition narrative + earnings/guidance on 2026-02-25 AH), which can keep the stock range-bound or choppy.
Insider activity is a clear negative (insiders selling aggressively), which reduces conviction for an immediate entry for an impatient buyer.
If forced to act immediately, the risk/reward is only acceptable very near support (~234 pivot / 220 S1), but at ~236–238 it’s not compelling enough to call a clean buy.

Technical Analysis

Trend/price posture: Stabilizing after a sharp sentiment-driven selloff; currently trading just above the pivot support (Pivot 234.001), suggesting a “hold the line” area rather than a breakout.
MACD: Histogram slightly positive (0.015) and expanding, hinting at early momentum improvement, but still not a strong trend signal.
RSI(6): 51.1 (neutral) — no oversold bounce signal and no overbought risk; supports a consolidation view.
Moving averages: Converging MAs indicate indecision/range conditions rather than a directional trend.
Key levels: Support = 234 pivot then 219.73 (S1). Resistance = 248.27 (R1) then 257.09 (R2). A convincing move above ~248 would improve the buy case; losing ~234 raises odds of a move toward ~220.
Pattern-based forward look (provided): modest positive skew (next week +1.56%, next month +3.76%) but not strong enough to outweigh near-term catalysts.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning (Open Interest PCR 0.81): More call OI than put OI, mildly bullish longer-horizon positioning.
Flow (Volume PCR 1.19): Puts outweigh calls on the day’s volume, implying near-term caution/hedging.
Volatility: IV30 ~63.67 vs HV ~61.59 (slightly rich). IV percentile 74.9 (elevated), meaning options are pricing sizable moves; this often aligns with event risk (earnings/guidance).
Liquidity/activity: Today’s volume is ~~41% of 30-day average (not a “rush” of speculation), but today’s OI vs 30-day average is high (~~90.6%), suggesting positioning remains meaningful.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

with slightly improving MACD supports the idea of basing rather than continued free-fall.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

alongside elevated IV suggests traders are paying up for protection into catalysts.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Growth: Revenue $1.595B (+79.67% YoY), Net Income $455.9M (+45.69% YoY), EPS $4.24 (+45.70% YoY) — strong top-line and earnings growth.
Margin trend: Gross margin 38.29% (down -23.68% YoY) — profitability quality is mixed; growth is strong but margin compression is a key watch item going into Q4/2026 guidance.
Next key update: Q4 and full-year 2025 results with 2026 guidance on 2026-02-25 after hours (EPS est. 5.22).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Still predominantly constructive (multiple Buy/Overweight/Outperform reiterations), but with notable incremental caution.
Downgrades/concerns: BMO downgraded to Market Perform and cut PT to $263 (from $285) on Tesla overhang; Citi removed FSLR as top renewables pick and warned 2026 guidance could be below consensus.
Price targets: Generally remain well above current price (e.g., RBC $258; BofA lowered to $271; Guggenheim $312), implying upside if Tesla fears fade and guidance holds.
Wall Street pros: cost advantage/positioning; belief Tesla impact is pushed out (little earnings impact through ~2030 per Mizuho); “buy on weakness” framing.
Wall Street cons: sentiment overhang from Tesla headlines; risk of softer 2026 guide (volumes/costs); policy/trade uncertainty raised as potentially disruptive.
Politicians/congress: No recent congress trading data available (no signal from political buying/selling in the last 90 days).

23 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast FSLR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FSLR is 280.35 USD with a low forecast of 150 USD and a high forecast of 335 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

18 Buy

4 Hold

1 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 234.360

Low

150

Averages

280.35

High

335

Current: 234.360

Low

150

Averages

280.35

High

335

RBC Capital

Outperform

maintain

$258

AI Analysis

2026-02-02

Reason

RBC Capital

Price Target

$258

AI Analysis

2026-02-02

maintain

Outperform

Reason

RBC Capital keeps an Outperform rating and $258 price target on First Solar (FSLR), saying the decline in the stock price after Tesla's (TSLA) recent announcement that it plans to build 100 GW of solar manufacturing capacity in the U.S. within the decade is "overdone". The higher labor/energy costs and current trade and policy restrictions position First Solar's CdTe solar to remain cost competitive, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Mizuho

maintain

$NULL

2026-01-30

Reason

Mizuho

Price Target

$NULL

2026-01-30

maintain

Reason

Mizuho believes First Solar's (FSLR) competition concerns around Tesla (TSLA) which drove the stock down 12% yesterday, are overdone. Fully U.S.-made solar modules will be capital intensive, costing more than First Solar's average selling price, the analyst tells investors in a research note. In addition, Mizuho says industry feedback consistently indicates that scaling polysilicon and wafer capacity takes three-to-four years. It estimates that the U.S. does not currently have sufficient metallurgical-grade silicon supply to support Tesla's proposed plan. As such, it does not expect any meaningful impact on First Solar's earnings through at least 2030.

Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for FSLR

Unlock Now

FSLR Should I Buy

FSLR Should I Buy

Should You Buy First Solar Inc (FSLR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

People Also Watch