Should I Buy FSK? FSK 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy FS KKR Capital Corp (FSK) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

12.860

1 Day change

0.86%

52 Week Range

23.310

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: the broader trend is still bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) and MACD momentum is deteriorating.
The stock is extremely oversold (RSI_6 ~19.7) and sitting just above key support (S1 ~13.229), so a short-term bounce is possible, but the setup is still counter-trend.
No Intellectia proprietary buy signals today (AI Stock Picker: none; SwingMax: none), so there’s no high-conviction timing edge to justify buying immediately.
Best “buy-now” case is a tight, tactical mean-reversion trade near support; otherwise, the higher-probability move is waiting for reclaim of the pivot (~13.825) / stabilization before entry.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bearish structure (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) indicates sustained downside bias.
Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.0999) and negatively expanding, signaling selling pressure is still increasing.
Oversold: RSI_6 at ~19.65 is deeply oversold, raising odds of a snap-back rally, but oversold can persist in downtrends.
Levels: Immediate support S1 ~13.229 (price ~13.29 is very close). If it breaks, next support S2 ~12.861. Upside resistance/pivot ~13.825, then R1 ~14.421.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning: Put open interest exceeds calls (OI P/C 1.28), suggesting more hedging/defensive positioning than bullish conviction.
Flow today: Option volume is call-skewed (volume P/C 0.27) but total volume is small (62 contracts), so sentiment read is weaker.
Volatility: 30D IV ~37.82 with IV percentile ~96% (very elevated vs its own history), implying the market is pricing sizable moves (often around earnings or credit/dividend uncertainty).
Activity vs normal: Today’s volume vs 30D average is elevated (3.44x), but given low absolute volume, interpret as “noticeable,” not definitive.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Mean-reversion potential: Extremely oversold RSI near support can trigger a quick bounce if support holds.
- Next-month pattern odds: The provided pattern study suggests a positive 1-month bias (+8.24%) despite weaker 1-day/1-week expectations.
- Fundamentals (last reported): Strong YoY growth in revenue/net income/EPS in 2025/Q3 can help underpin valuation if credit holds.
- Earnings catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-25 (after hours) could re-rate the stock if credit quality/dividend outlook surprises positively.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Trend/momentum headwind: Bearish moving-average stack and worsening MACD increase the odds of support failure.
- Near-term statistical drift: Similar-pattern analysis indicates ~60% chance of -0.6% next day and -2.42% next week.
- Analyst tone: Multiple price-target cuts and “Hold/Neutral/Market Perform” stances can cap near-term upside.
- No near-term news tailwind: No recent news catalysts in the past week to reverse sentiment quickly.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $428M, +10.88% YoY (solid top-line growth).
Net income: $214M, +33.75% YoY (accelerating profitability).
EPS: $0.76, +33.33% YoY (strong earnings growth trend).
Gross margin: 88.08%, +2.41% YoY (improving efficiency/portfolio economics).
Takeaway: Fundamentals look healthy in the last quarter, but the stock’s current tape is trading more like a risk/credit-sentiment story than a pure growth story.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent actions (2025-11-11): Keefe Bruyette, B. Riley, and Truist all lowered price targets (to ~$18, $17.50, and $17 respectively) while maintaining Market Perform/Neutral/Hold.
Street stance: Predominantly “hold/neutral” with reduced targets—signals limited conviction and a preference to wait for clearer credit/dividend and earnings visibility.
Wall Street pros: Q3 results and modeled net interest income tailwinds (per Truist) provide support.
Wall Street cons: Mixed Q3 read and more conservative credit/forward earnings assumptions (per B. Riley) weigh on valuation and near-term upside.

6 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast FSK stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FSK is 17.25 USD with a low forecast of 15.5 USD and a high forecast of 18.5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

0 Buy

6 Hold

0 Sell

Hold

Current: 12.750

Low

15.5

Averages

17.25

High

18.5

Current: 12.750

Low

15.5

Averages

17.25

High

18.5

Keefe Bruyette

Paul Johnson

Market Perform

downgrade

$18

AI Analysis

2025-11-11

Reason

Keefe Bruyette

Paul Johnson

Price Target

$18

AI Analysis

2025-11-11

downgrade

Market Perform

Reason

Keefe Bruyette analyst Paul Johnson lowered the firm's price target on FS KKR Capital to $18 from $18.50 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares.

B. Riley

Neutral

downgrade

$19

2025-11-11

Reason

B. Riley

Price Target

$19

2025-11-11

downgrade

Neutral

Reason

B. Riley lowered the firm's price target on FS KKR Capital to $17.50 from $19 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm views the company's Q3 report as mixed. It cites lower forward earnings and a more conservative view on credit for the target cut.

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FSK Should I Buy

FSK Should I Buy

Should You Buy FS KKR Capital Corp (FSK) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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