Should I Buy FRMI? FRMI 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Fermi Inc (FRMI) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Sell

Latest Price

8.000

1 Day change

11.11%

52 Week Range

36.990

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: price trend is still bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) and the setup lacks a confirmed reversal.
Heavy event-driven overhang from multiple class-action/law-firm announcements (same day) tends to pressure sentiment and can keep the stock weak into the next catalyst.
Options are risk-on (put/call < 1) but implied volatility is extremely elevated, signaling unstable pricing and headline-driven swings rather than a clean long entry.
Near-term odds skew negative: pattern-based projection suggests -5.4% over the next week and -7.08% over the next month.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bearish structure with moving averages stacked down (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), aligning with the regular-session drop (-3.99%).
Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.0493) but “positively contracting,” implying upside momentum is fading rather than accelerating.
RSI: RSI(6)=32.64 (near-oversold/low neutral) — conditions can bounce, but not a buy signal without confirmation.
Key levels: Immediate support S1=8.149 (price is essentially sitting on it post-market ~8.15); next support S2=7.592. Resistance/pivot overhead: Pivot=9.051 then R1=9.952.
Practical read: Unless FRMI reclaims ~9.05 (pivot) with follow-through, rallies look more like dead-cat bounces within a downtrend.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment tilt: Put/call ratios below 1 (OI 0.57; volume 0.5) indicate call-skew / bullish positioning.
Volatility: 30D IV ~180.33 vs historical vol ~96.27 (IV far above realized), implying traders are paying up for optionality and expecting big moves.
Activity: Today’s volume 16,133 vs 30D average (reported) 74.11% (not a blowout), but open interest is large (total OI 266,367) and today vs OI avg 126.25% suggests positioning remains significant.
Takeaway: Options are signaling “speculative upside interest,” but the extremely high IV and lawsuit-driven headlines make directional long entries unattractive right now (risk is not being priced cheaply).

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Analyst stance is bullish with a very large stated upside case (initiations/coverage framing FRMI as an AI infrastructure/power-capacity play).
- Potential tenant/lease progress: prior commentary suggests negotiations continue and management believes it can land a first key tenant (if announced, that could be a sharp upside catalyst).
- Upcoming earnings event: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-16 (pre-market) can reset the narrative if it provides credible tenant/contract or timeline clarity.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Strong negative news flow: multiple securities/class-action lawsuit announcements on 2026-02-04 alleging misrepresentation/IPO disclosures—often a persistent sentiment and liquidity drag.
- Execution/visibility risk: prior notes indicate delays/renegotiations around the first key tenant (core to the bull thesis).
- Technical downside risk: price is sitting on S1 (~~8.149); a clean break can open room toward S2 (~~7.592).
- No supportive “buy” timing signals from Intellectia modules (AI Stock Picker and SwingMax both show no current entry signal).
- Political/congress flows: No recent congress trading data available; no politician/influential buying signal provided.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 0 (no demonstrated operating revenue base in the snapshot), indicating the story remains pre-commercial/early-stage.
Profitability: Net income -346,812,000 and EPS -0.74 (large loss profile), reinforcing that valuation depends on forward execution rather than current fundamentals.
Next key checkpoint: QDEC 2025 earnings scheduled 2026-02-16 (pre-market); guidance/contract updates matter more than near-term P&L.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Trend: Recent coverage has been constructive—Texas Capital initiated (2026-01-20) with Buy and $23 PT; Stifel reiterated Buy (2025-12-12) while acknowledging tenant agreement delays.
Price target direction: High PTs relative to current ~$8.15 suggest Wall Street sees substantial upside if execution occurs.
Wall Street pros: Positioned as a differentiated AI infrastructure/power-capacity play; potential for meaningful rerating if tenant/customer deals and timelines firm up.
Wall Street cons: Thesis is highly dependent on landing tenants and delivering development milestones; recent tenant negotiation delays and current lawsuit headlines raise perceived execution and credibility risk.

8 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast FRMI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FRMI is 30.25 USD with a low forecast of 20 USD and a high forecast of 37 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

8 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 7.200

Low

Averages

30.25

High

Current: 7.200

Low

Averages

30.25

High

Texas Capital

NULL -> Buy

initiated

$23

AI Analysis

2026-01-20

Reason

Texas Capital

Price Target

$23

AI Analysis

2026-01-20

initiated

NULL -> Buy

Reason

Texas Capital initiated coverage of Fermi with a Buy rating and $23 price target. Fermi is currently developing the world's largest hybrid energy and data center development campus, notes the analyst, who sees the company being "uniquely positioned to capitalize" on the primary constraint facing hyperscalers as they build out to support their AI compute needs, namely bypassing long interconnection queues and achieving reliability. The stock is pricing approximately 10% of the company's projected power capacity at its current valuation, offering "material potential upside to what appears to be a low-risk play on AI infrastructure," the analyst added.

Stifel

Stephen Gengaro

Buy

maintain

2025-12-12

Reason

Stifel

Stephen Gengaro

Price Target

2025-12-12

maintain

Buy

Reason

Stifel analyst Stephen Gengaro notes that in conversation with Fermi management, the company indicated that it is still in negotiations with its first key tenant. The tenant attempted to change the terms of the LOI at the last minute, and Fermi opted to call their bluff. This has delayed an agreement, but management is back in talks with the initial potential client and appears confident it will reach a deal with this client or potentially another customer from their pipeline, Stifel adds. The company noted it is now working to get its potential 2027 clients online in 2026. The LOI for the first tenant is still active, and the firm believes the company has satisfied conditions for its lease from Texas Tech University, and that lease is not at risk of being canceled. Stifel has a Buy rating on Fermi.

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FRMI Should I Buy

FRMI Should I Buy

Should You Buy Fermi Inc (FRMI) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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