Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: price is extended (RSI-6 ~80.8) after a strong move (+2.43% regular session) and is pushing into nearby resistance.
Trend is bullish overall (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200 and MACD expanding), but the risk/reward at this exact level is skewed toward a short-term pullback or stall.
Analyst tone is constructive (PT raised, Overweight maintained), but the latest quarter showed earnings pressure (EPS and net income down YoY), which can cap near-term upside if rates/credit narratives turn.
Technical Analysis
Trend: Bullish structure (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) indicates an established uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram +0.341 and expanding = bullish momentum still building.
Overbought: RSI_6 at 80.756 suggests a near-term overbought condition (higher odds of consolidation/pullback than immediate clean upside).
Cons: near-term earnings trend (YoY EPS/net income down) needs improvement to validate higher targets; limited additional analyst breadth provided in the dataset.
Wall Street analysts forecast FRME stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FRME is 48 USD with a low forecast of 46 USD and a high forecast of 50 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast FRME stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FRME is 48 USD with a low forecast of 46 USD and a high forecast of 50 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 41.850
Low
46
Averages
48
High
50
Current: 41.850
Low
46
Averages
48
High
50
Piper Sandler
Nathan Race
Overweight
maintain
$46 -> $49
AI Analysis
2026-02-04
New
Reason
Piper Sandler
Nathan Race
Price Target
$46 -> $49
AI Analysis
2026-02-04
New
maintain
Overweight
Reason
Piper Sandler analyst Nathan Race raised the firm's price target on First Merchants to $49 from $46 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm is also raising its 2026 operating EPS to $4.15 from $4.00 and establishing a 2027 of $4.45 following First Merchants' recent First Savings Financial acquisition closing and solid Q4 results.
Piper Sandler
Overweight
downgrade
$48 -> $46
2025-10-27
Reason
Piper Sandler
Price Target
$48 -> $46
2025-10-27
downgrade
Overweight
Reason
Piper Sandler lowered the firm's price target on First Merchants to $46 from $48 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Following solid Q3 results with in-line PPNR and improved credit metrics, the firm believes First Merchants remains well-positioned to generate price-to-earnings expansion above peers.
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