Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: FRGE is trading at 44.72 post-market versus a $45 cash acquisition price, leaving very limited upside (0.6%) while you still carry deal-timing and deal-risk.
The stock is essentially a merger-arbitrage instrument until the Schwab transaction closes (expected 1H 2026), so the risk/reward is skewed versus the small remaining spread.
Insider selling has surged (+1576% over the last month), reinforcing that upside is likely capped near the deal price.
Best stance: HOLD if you already own it (capture the small spread if the deal completes), but it’s not an attractive fresh BUY today given the small remaining payoff and the wait.
Technical Analysis
Trend/MAs: Bullish structure with SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200, consistent with an uptrend/price being supported.
Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.107) but contracting, suggesting downside momentum is fading rather than accelerating.
RSI: RSI(6) ~60.85 (neutral-to-slightly-bullish), not signaling an oversold entry.
Levels: Price ~44.72 is sitting around R1 (44.71) and below R2 (44.762); near-term upside is technically constrained by resistance and fundamentally capped by the $45 deal.
Short-horizon pattern stats: Similar-pattern projection shows modest expected moves (next day -0.51% probability-weighted; week/month +~1.4%), consistent with a tight, deal-anchored range.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Open interest: Calls OI 1152 vs Puts OI 900; OI put/call ratio 0.78 suggests slightly more bullish positioning than bearish.
Volume: Reported options volume is 0 today (put/call volume ratio 0.0), implying no meaningful fresh sentiment from options flow.
Volatility: 30D IV 20.17 with low IV rank (7.38) / IV percentile (~29) vs history—options pricing indicates relatively muted uncertainty (typical for deal-anchored trading).
Takeaway: Options positioning is mildly bullish on OI, but lack of volume means sentiment confirmation is weak; price behavior is likely dominated by deal dynamics rather than directional options flow.
Definitive acquisition agreement: Charles Schwab agreed to acquire Forge for $45/share cash (core support for the current price).
Schwab-related news tailwind: Schwab increasing dividend after a strong growth year may support confidence in the acquirer.
Broader market/IPO sentiment: News pointing to improving IPO market tone may help overall private-market ecosystem sentiment (secondary benefit).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
implies minimal remaining spread.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $21.26M, +10.64% YoY (growth is positive).
Profitability: Net income -$18.223M (still deeply negative; down -0.65% YoY—slightly worse).
EPS: -$1.37, down -8.05% YoY (deteriorating per-share performance).
Gross margin: 93.93%, +3.77% YoY (strong margins, but not translating into profitability yet).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Analysts broadly shifted to Neutral/Market Perform after the Schwab $45 cash deal was announced; price targets were raised/anchored to $45.
Key changes:
2025-12-12: Citizens downgraded to Market Perform (no PT) citing the $45/share Schwab acquisition.
2025-11-11: UBS downgraded to Neutral; PT raised to $45 (from $34).
2025-11-06: Piper Sandler downgraded to Neutral; PT raised to $45 (from $30).
Wall Street “pros” view: Deal provides a firm valuation anchor and reduces fundamental debate.
Wall Street “cons” view: Stock will trade on deal dynamics rather than business execution; limited upside from current levels with deal/closing risk remaining.
Wall Street analysts forecast FRGE stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FRGE is 45 USD with a low forecast of 45 USD and a high forecast of 45 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast FRGE stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FRGE is 45 USD with a low forecast of 45 USD and a high forecast of 45 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 44.640
Low
45
Averages
45
High
45
Current: 44.640
Low
45
Averages
45
High
45
Citizens
Citizens
Outperform -> Market Perform
downgrade
$45
AI Analysis
2025-12-12
Reason
Citizens
Citizens
Price Target
$45
AI Analysis
2025-12-12
downgrade
Outperform -> Market Perform
Reason
Citizens downgraded Forge Global to Market Perform from Outperform without a price target citing the company's agreement to sell to Charles Schwab for $45 per share. The firm believes the acquisition, set to close in the first half of 2026, represents a "win-win."
UBS
Buy -> Neutral
downgrade
$34 -> $45
2025-11-11
Reason
UBS
Price Target
$34 -> $45
2025-11-11
downgrade
Buy -> Neutral
Reason
UBS downgraded Forge Global (FRGE) to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $45, up from $34, after the company entered into an agreement to be acquired by the Charles Schwab (SCHW) for $45 per common share. The firm believes Forge will trade on deal dynamics, rather than fundamentals.
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