Should I Buy FPH? FPH 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Sell

Latest Price

5.260

1 Day change

3.14%

52 Week Range

6.640

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient trader: price is below key support (S1 ~5.105) and trend/momentum are still bearish.
Oversold conditions (RSI ~~25.7) can bounce, but without Intellectia signals and with a negatively expanding MACD, the higher-probability setup is further chop/down toward S2 (~~4.933) before any durable reversal.
Fundamentals/news are mixed-to-positive (record net income, strong cash), but near-term tape is weak; I would avoid new longs at this moment.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bearish structure with moving averages stacked negatively (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), signaling a persistent downtrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram (-0.0569) is below zero and negatively expanding → downside momentum is strengthening, not stabilizing.
RSI: RSI_6 at 25.713 indicates oversold pressure (bounce risk), but oversold alone is not a buy trigger while MACD/MA trend remain bearish.
Levels: Pivot 5.384 is well above current trade; price is below S1 (5.105) post-market (~5.03). Next support is S2 (4.933); resistances sit at 5.663 (R1) and 5.835 (R2).
Pattern stats: Similar-pattern projection skews slightly negative (next month -1.46%), suggesting rebounds may be short-lived.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals: AI Stock Picker = no signal today; SwingMax = no recent signal (no strong “must-buy-now” trigger).

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/Sentiment: Extremely low put/call open interest ratio (0.07) suggests call-heavy positioning (bullish bias), but options activity is very small (today volume 16; puts 0).
Volatility: 30D IV ~67.85 vs historical vol ~29.68 implies options are pricing large moves; however IV percentile ~23.9 / IV rank ~26.76 indicates IV is not high versus its own history.
IV trend: IV 5D avg (~~78.5) and 10D avg (~~80.6) are above current (~67.9) → implied vol has been cooling recently (often seen after event/news).

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Q4 2025: Reported record net income of $58.7M and exceeded guidance (positive profitability signal).
- 2026 outlook: Management expects consolidated net income around ~$100M in 2026 (forward catalyst if execution holds).
- Balance sheet strength: ~~$425M cash and low debt-to-capitalization (~~16.3%) supports flexibility.
- Hearthstone integration: Added ~$11.8M in 2025 management fee revenue (diversifying/recurring-like contribution).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Q4 revenue decline: Revenue down ~52.5% YoY to $75.9M, attributed to sluggish real estate market and project delays.
- Tape is weak: Price broke below S1 support and momentum is deteriorating (bearish near-term).
- Growth concerns: Commentary highlights uncertainty around future growth potential in the current economic/real-estate climate.
- No notable supportive flow: Hedge funds and insiders are neutral; no significant recent accumulation signals provided.

Financial Performance

Latest provided quarter in dataset: 2025/Q3 — Revenue $13.488M (-20.72% YoY) while Net Income $21.052M (+343.11% YoY) and EPS $0.09 (+350% YoY).
Margin quality: Gross margin 47.46% (-29.95% YoY) suggests profitability improvements may be driven by items other than core margin expansion.
Latest news quarter context: Q4 2025 showed strong net income but weak revenue, reinforcing a mixed “profits up, top-line pressured” trend.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Analyst/Street view (from provided info): No clear broad analyst rating or price-target change data was supplied; the only referenced view is a Seeking Alpha-style “balanced risk-reward” stance.
Wall Street-style pros: Strong cash position, low leverage, management guiding to higher 2026 net income, and land sales/value optimization plans.
Wall Street-style cons: Material revenue declines, sensitivity to real estate cycle and project timing, and bearish technical setup that can overwhelm fundamentals short-term.
Influential/politician activity: No recent Congress trading data available; hedge fund and insider signals are neutral (no strong external validation of a near-term buy).

Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast FPH stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FPH is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

Buy

Hold

Sell

Current: 5.100

Low

Averages

High

Current: 5.100

Low

Averages

High

FPH Should I Buy

FPH Should I Buy

Should You Buy Five Point Holdings LLC (FPH) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

No data

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