Not a good buy right now for an impatient trader: trend structure is still bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) and there’s no proprietary buy signal to override that.
Price is pressing into near-term resistance (R1 ~19.61) after a bounce; risk/reward is not attractive without confirmation above resistance.
Hedge funds show aggressive net buying (very bullish), but fundamentals/analyst stance remain cautious and the next major catalyst is earnings (2026-02-25), which introduces binary risk.
Trend: Bearish alignment (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) implies the broader downtrend is still intact despite the recent up day.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.107 is below zero but negatively contracting, suggesting downside momentum is fading (early stabilization), not a confirmed uptrend.
RSI(6) ~62.2: mildly bullish/neutral; not overbought, but also not a strong oversold rebound setup.
Levels: Pivot ~18.92 (near current ~19). Upside resistance at R1 ~19.61 then R2 ~20.03; support at S1 ~18.23 then S2 ~17.81. For a “buy now” case, a clean hold above ~19.61 would be more convincing than buying below it.
Activity: Reported options volume is 0 today (signal quality limited); sentiment read is mostly from open interest rather than fresh flow.
Volatility: 30D IV ~59.4 vs historical vol ~21.3 (elevated), IV percentile ~66.5. Options are priced for larger moves (often happens into uncertainty like earnings), which can signal nervousness or opportunity—but it’s not a clean directional “buy” by itself.
Open interest today vs avg (107.6) suggests OI is relatively elevated, but without volume it’s not a strong real-time conviction read.
Technical Summary
Sell
2
Buy
10
Positive Catalysts
could re-rate the stock if management shows stabilization in Bike/Marucci and stronger FCF/debt progress.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Technical structure remains bearish (major moving averages stacked bearishly); recent strength may be a bounce within a larger downtrend.
Analysts largely remain Neutral and have been cutting price targets, reflecting weak end markets (especially Bike) and a longer turnaround timeline.
Latest quarter profitability deteriorated to a small loss (net income and EPS negative), which can cap near-term multiple expansion.
No supportive news flow in the last week (no fresh catalyst to drive a sustained breakout right now).
Profitability: Net income -$0.634M (down -113.26% YoY) and EPS -0.02 (down -118.18% YoY) — growth is not translating into earnings yet.
Margins: Gross margin 27.65% (+2.94% YoY), a constructive sign, but not enough to prevent earnings slipping negative.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Mostly Neutral ratings with repeated price target cuts (tone is cautious).
Key changes: Roth cut PT to $19 (Neutral) from $21 (and earlier from $30); Baird cut to $20 (Neutral) from $30; B. Riley cut to $20 (Neutral) from $32; BofA cut to $26 (Neutral) from $30; Stifel cut to $25 but maintained Buy.
Wall Street pros: Margin improvement and potential cyclical tailwinds (rate environment) plus product momentum in parts of the portfolio.
Wall Street cons: Weakness in Bike segment and downturn at Marucci; channel partners ordering cautiously; turnaround likely taking longer than previously expected.
Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available; insiders reported as Neutral with no significant recent trend.
Wall Street analysts forecast FOXF stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FOXF is 22 USD with a low forecast of 19 USD and a high forecast of 26 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast FOXF stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FOXF is 22 USD with a low forecast of 19 USD and a high forecast of 26 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 18.360
Low
19
Averages
22
High
26
Current: 18.360
Low
19
Averages
22
High
26
Roth Capital
Scott Stember
Neutral
downgrade
$21 -> $19
AI Analysis
2026-01-06
Reason
Roth Capital
Scott Stember
Price Target
$21 -> $19
AI Analysis
2026-01-06
downgrade
Neutral
Reason
Roth Capital analyst Scott Stember lowered the firm's price target on Fox Factory to $19 from $21 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Following recent in-person and virtual meetings with Fox Factory management, Fox is at a crossroads, as weakness in the Bike segment and a downturn at Marucci are prompting efforts to better align costs with realistic growth targets, while prioritizing free cash flow generation and debt repayment, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
BofA
Neutral
downgrade
$30 -> $26
2025-11-10
Reason
BofA
Price Target
$30 -> $26
2025-11-10
downgrade
Neutral
Reason
BofA lowered the firm's price target on Fox Factory to $26 from $30 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. After the Q3 report, the firm lowered EPS estimates to reflect a still challenging end market outlook in bikes, which is partially offset by potential cyclical tailwinds in a more favorable rate environment.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for FOXF
